Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c

Funding: This research has been supported by the Swedish Research Council (grant no. 2016-04422), the German Research Foundation (grant no. 1158-365737614), the US National Science Foundation (grant no. PLR-1542930), and the Norwegian Polar Institute/NARE (grant no. 2015/38/7/NK/ihs). Jorge Bernales has been supported by the MAGIC-DML project through DFG SPP 1158 (RO 4262/1-6). The article processing charges for this open-access publication were covered by Stockholm University.Studying the response of the Antarctic ice sheets during periods when climate conditions were similar to the present can provide important insights into current observed changes and help identify natural drivers of ice sheet retreat. In this context, the marine isotope substage 11c (MIS11c) interglacial offers a suitable scenario, given that during its later portion orbital parameters were close to our current interglacial. Ice core data indicate that warmer-than-present temperatures lasted for longer than during other interglacials. However, the response of the Antarctic ice sheets and their contribution to sea level rise remain unclear. We explore the dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheets during this period using a numerical ice sheet model forced by MIS11c climate conditions derived from climate model outputs scaled by three glaciological and one sedimentary proxy records of ice volume. Our results indicate that the East and West Antarctic ice sheets contributed 4.0–8.2 m to the MIS11c sea level rise. In the case of a West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, which is the most probable scenario according to far-field sea level reconstructions, the range is reduced to 6.7–8.2 m independently of the choices of external sea level forcing and millennial-scale climate variability. Within this latter range, the main source of uncertainty arises from the sensitivity of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to a choice of initial ice sheet configuration. We found that the warmer regional climate signal captured by Antarctic ice cores during peak MIS11c is crucial to reproduce the contribution expected from Antarctica during the recorded global sea level highstand. This climate signal translates to a modest threshold of 0.4 °C oceanic warming at intermediate depths, which leads to a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet if sustained for at least 4000 years.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Nunataks as barriers to ice flow : implications for palaeo ice sheet reconstructions

Funding: This research has been supported by the Vetenskapsrådet (grant no. 2016-04422), the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (grant no. 1158-365737614), the National Science Foundation (grant no. OPP-1542930), and the Norsk Polarinstitutt (grant no. 2015/38/7/NK/ihs).Numerical models predict that discharge from the polar ice sheets will become the largest contributor to sea-level rise over the coming centuries. However, the predicted amount of ice discharge and associated thinning depends on how well ice sheet models reproduce glaciological processes, such as ice flow in regions of large topographic relief, where ice flows around bedrock summits (i.e. nunataks) and through outlet glaciers. The ability of ice sheet models to capture long-term ice loss is best tested by comparing model simulations against geological data. A benchmark for such models is ice surface elevation change, which has been constrained empirically at nunataks and along margins of outlet glaciers using cosmogenic exposure dating. However, the usefulness of this approach in quantifying ice sheet thinning relies on how well such records represent changes in regional ice surface elevation. Here we examine how ice surface elevations respond to the presence of strong topographic relief that acts as an obstacle by modelling ice flow around and between idealised nunataks during periods of imposed ice sheet thinning. We find that, for realistic Antarctic conditions, a single nunatak can exert an impact on ice thickness over 20 km away from its summit, with its most prominent effect being a local increase (decrease) of the ice surface elevation of hundreds of metres upstream (downstream) of the obstacle. A direct consequence of this differential surface response for cosmogenic exposure dating is a delay in the time of bedrock exposure upstream relative to downstream of a nunatak summit. A nunatak elongated transversely to ice flow is able to increase ice retention and therefore impose steeper ice surface gradients, while efficient ice drainage through outlet glaciers produces gentler gradients. Such differences, however, are not typically captured by continent-wide ice sheet models due to their coarse grid resolutions. Their inability to capture site-specific surface elevation changes appears to be a key reason for the observed mismatches between the timing of ice-free conditions from cosmogenic exposure dating and model simulations. We conclude that a model grid refinement over complex topography and information about sample position relative to ice flow near the nunatak are necessary to improve data–model comparisons of ice surface elevation and therefore the ability of models to simulate ice discharge in regions of large topographic relief.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Mudanças no Sistema Frontal nas Altas Latitudes do Oceano Atlântico Sudeste

The transition between the South Atlantic and the Southern Ocean is marked by a frontal system that includes both the South Atlantic Current and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). In the eastern part of the basin the latitudinal position of the fronts that compose this system is thought to control the input of warm waters into the Atlantic basin through the Agulhas Leakage. Changes in the Subtropical and Polar regimes associated with the system that marks the boundary between the Subtropical Gyre and the ACC are investigated using the simulation results of the ocean component of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM), POP2. Sea surface height gradients and specific contours are used to identify and track the ocean fronts position. We compare the Subtropical Front position at the eastern edge of the South Atlantic to changes in temperature and salinity, as well as Agulhas Current transports and the overlying wind field, in order to determine what could be driving frontal variability at this region and its consequences to volume transport from the Indian into the Atlantic. Results suggest that the Subtropical Front is not the southern boundary of the subtropical gyre, but it responds to changes in the \"Supergyre\", especially the Indian Ocean Subtropical Gyre expansion.A transição entre os oceanos Atlântico Sul e Austral é marcada por um sistema frontal que inclui tanto a Corrente do Atlântico Sul quanto a Corrente Circumpolar Antártica (CCA). Na porção oeste da bacia, acredita-se que a posição meridional das frentes que compõem este sistema controla o aporte de águas quentes para o Atlântico pelo Vazamento das Agulhas. Mudanças nos regimes subtropical e polar associadas ao sistema que marca o limite entre o giro subtropical e a CCA são investigadas através dos resultados da componente oceânica do modelo do National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), o Community Earth System Model (CESM). O gradiente meridional, bem como valores específicos de altura da superfície do mar são usados para identificar e acompanhar a posição destas frentes oceânicas. A comparação da posição da Frente Subtropical no limite leste do Atlântico Sul com as mudanças na temperatura e salinidade, assim como no transporte da Corrente das Agulhas e do campo de ventos sobrejacente, é feita para determinar quais as forçantes da variabilidade frontal nesta região e suas consequências no transporte de volume entre o Índico e o Atlântico. Resultados sugerem que a Frente Subtropical não é o limite sul do giro subtropical, mas responde às mudanças no \"Supergiro\", especialmente à expansão do Giro Subtropical do Oceano Índico

Modelling ice surface elevation changes in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica : Bridging the gap between in-situ and numerical model reconstructions

Ice sheets are an active component of Earth's climate system. Their topography influences atmospheric circulation and changes in their volume alters freshwater fluxes to the oceans, affecting ocean water masses, atmospheric carbon uptake, and global sea level. Sea-level rise has a marked societal impact, and thus ice sheet models are indispensable tools to predict it. To increase confidence on sea-level rise projections, it is necessary that ice sheet models accurately represent the relevant processes governing ice sheet dynamics. Given the fact that ice sheets respond to geological-scale changes in Earth's system, it is necessary that their performance is compared with in-situ data of past geological periods, which are discrete in space and time. One useful constraint used for validating model results is past ice surface elevation, which is reconstructed based on rock samples taken from nunataks (mountain summits that pierce through the ice sheet surface). However, two main problems prevent reliable comparisons of past ice surface elevations between model and empirical results. First, data-model comparisons are hindered by the fact that most large-scale ice sheet models capture neither the timing nor the magnitude of ice thinning reconstructed for the last deglaciation. Second, the complex subglacial topography of regions where nunataks are present is also reflected on the ice sheet surface, through pronounced elevation gradients. As a result, the choice of a reference point on the present-day ice sheet, which can be subjective, is a significant source of uncertainty when computing thickness-change estimates.                In this thesis, I aim to reconstruct changes in ice sheet geometry over Dronning Maud Land (DML, East Antarctica) during periods that were warmer and colder than present, and the climate drivers behind such changes. I assess whether the comparison between empirical and model results can be improved by resolving local features in ice sheet models, and by using data and models in an iterative way (using data to constrain the model, and models to interpret the data). The results of this thesis demonstrate that ice flow in areas of complex topography is poorly resolved in continental-scale ice sheet models and requires modelling in high resolution to match results from empirical constraints. High-resolution ice-sheet models, in turn, show that accurate ice sheet surface elevation reconstructions from empirical data require systematic sampling and definition of reference points over the modern ice sheet surface. Moreover, a consistent reconstruction of regional ice-thickness changes needs both empirical and ice sheet model results. Based on constrained models and empirical datasets, the ice sheet in DML responds to an interplay between sea level, ocean warming, surface mass balance, and subglacial topography. Samples from nunataks mainly reflect local ice surface elevation changes, potentially missing catchment-scale (regional) changes. Accurately determining regional changes using high-resolution modelling plays a significant role when interpreting the evolution of ice streams. Hence, the work presented here highlights that accurately reconstructing past ice sheet geometry is an effort that can only be truly successful if field scientists and ice sheet modellers work in tandem, at experiment-design, sampling, and result-interpretation stages

martimmas/MIS11c_exps: MIS11c experiments

Header files with the settings for all experiments conducted in the study

martimmas/Nunatak_modelling: Model configuration files for Mas e Braga et al. "Nunataks as barriers to ice flow: implications for palaeo ice-sheet reconstructions"

No description provided

Úa configuration files for "Regional sea-level highstand triggered Holocene ice sheet thinning across coastal Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica"

Configuration files necessary for running the Úa simulations published in the respective paper

Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c

Studying the response of the Antarctic ice sheets during periods when climate conditions were similar to the present can provide important insights into current observed changes and help identify natural drivers of ice sheet retreat. In this context, the marine isotope substage 11c (MIS11c) interglacial offers a suitable scenario, given that during its later portion orbital parameters were close to our current interglacial. Ice core data indicate that warmer-than-present temperatures lasted for longer than during other interglacials. However, the response of the Antarctic ice sheets and their contribution to sea level rise remain unclear. We explore the dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheets during this period using a numerical ice sheet model forced by MIS11c climate conditions derived from climate model outputs scaled by three glaciological and one sedimentary proxy records of ice volume. Our results indicate that the East and West Antarctic ice sheets contributed 4.0–8.2 m to the MIS11c sea level rise. In the case of a West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, which is the most probable scenario according to far-field sea level reconstructions, the range is reduced to 6.7–8.2 m independently of the choices of external sea level forcing and millennial-scale climate variability. Within this latter range, the main source of uncertainty arises from the sensitivity of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to a choice of initial ice sheet configuration. We found that the warmer regional climate signal captured by Antarctic ice cores during peak MIS11c is crucial to reproduce the contribution expected from Antarctica during the recorded global sea level highstand. This climate signal translates to a modest threshold of 0.4 °C oceanic warming at intermediate depths, which leads to a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet if sustained for at least 4000 years

Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c

Studying the response of the Antarctic ice sheets during periods when climate conditions were similar to the present can provide important insights into current observed changes and help identify natural drivers of ice sheet retreat. In this context, the marine isotope substage 11c (MIS11c) interglacial offers a suitable scenario, given that during its later portion orbital parameters were close to our current interglacial. Ice core data indicate that warmer-than-present temperatures lasted for longer than during other interglacials. However, the response of the Antarctic ice sheets and their contribution to sea level rise remain unclear. We explore the dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheets during this period using a numerical ice sheet model forced by MIS11c climate conditions derived from climate model outputs scaled by three glaciological and one sedimentary proxy records of ice volume. Our results indicate that the East and West Antarctic ice sheets contributed 4.0–8.2 m to the MIS11c sea level rise. In the case of a West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, which is the most probable scenario according to far-field sea level reconstructions, the range is reduced to 6.7–8.2 m independently of the choices of external sea level forcing and millennial-scale climate variability. Within this latter range, the main source of uncertainty arises from the sensitivity of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to a choice of initial ice sheet configuration. We found that the warmer regional climate signal captured by Antarctic ice cores during peak MIS11c is crucial to reproduce the contribution expected from Antarctica during the recorded global sea level highstand. This climate signal translates to a modest threshold of 0.4 ∘C oceanic warming at intermediate depths, which leads to a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet if sustained for at least 4000 years