Data-driven & Theory-driven Science : Artificial Realities and Applications to Savings Groups

Paper I and Paper II is not published yet. They are excluded from the dissertation until they will be published.The scientific process is neither unique nor nomic. Two processes of scientific inquiry are theory-driven and data-driven science. This dissertation analyzes savings groups using theory-driven and data-driven methods. Simulated realities-based on data-driven theory-are used to understand the emerging dynamics of savings groups. Savings groups are grassroots, community-based organizations composed of 15 to 30 members. These organizations-usually supported by international development agencies-have weekly meetings during a cycle of operations that typically lasts a year. In the groups, savings are kept in two funds: a fund for loans and a social welfare fund that covers life-cycle events. The findings of Papers A to D in this dissertation provide new large-sample evidence about savings groups, their dynamics, and the factors affecting their financial performance. In practice, the results of Paper A to D shed light on the best policies to promote sustainable development with informal finance in a cost-effective way. A theory-driven approach indicates that the social fund in savings groups stimulates loan allocation among risk-sharing members, while implicitly covering idiosyncratic risks (Paper A). A data-driven approach based on Bayesian data-mining reveals that the macroeconomic environment and the facilitation model of development agencies have a strong influence on the profit-generating capacity of savings groups (Paper B). Machine-learning methods further show that business training is not the most frequent program implemented by development agencies, but it is in fact the most powerful intervention to encourage profits, particularly when a development agency stops working with a group and leaves a community (Paper C). Finally, the simulation of a village with artificial agents indicates that the businesses of savings groups can have higher profits due to the consolidation of social capital and the competitive advantage created through a process of homophily (Paper D). Metatheoretically, the theory-driven and data-driven approaches of this dissertation-and the complementarity between these approaches-contribute to the epistemology of data-intensive science. The dissertation concludes that the gelstaltic and quasi-teleological explanations of the data-driven approach help to the formulation of theories through inductive and abductive reasoning.publishedVersio

Environmental risk factors of airborne viral transmission: Humidity, Influenza and SARS-CoV-2 in the Netherlands

Objective: The relationship between specific humidity and influenza/SARS-CoV-2 in the Netherlands is evaluated over time and at regional level. Design: Parametric and non-parametric correlation coefficients are calculated to quantify the relationship between humidity and influenza, using five years of weekly data. Bayesian spatio-temporal models—with a Poisson and a Gaussian likelihood—are estimated to find the relationship between regional humidity and the daily cases of SARS-CoV-2 in the municipalities and provinces of the Netherlands. Results: An inverse (negative) relationship is observed between specific humidity and the incidence of influenza between 2015 and 2019. The space-time analysis indicates that an increase of specific humidity of one gram of water vapor per kilogram of air (1 g/kg) is related to a reduction of approximately 5% in the risk of COVID-19 infections. Conclusions: The increase in humidity during the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 in the Netherlands may have helped to reduce the risk of regional COVID-19 infections. Policies that lead to an increase in house- hold specific humidity to over 6g/Kg will help reduce the spread of respiratory viruses such as influenza and SARS-CoV-2.publishedVersio

SUBSTANCE USE COUNSELORS\u27 PERCEPTIONS OF EFFECTIVE TREATMENT MODALITIES FOR WOMEN WITH CHILDREN

The U.S Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) conducted a study and determined that approximately one-third to two-thirds of child neglect cases had some form of substance abuse related to the case. Further, it is reported that women who use alcohol or drugs are two times more likely to lose custody of their children than non- using mothers. The purpose of this study is to examine which treatment modalities substance use counselors find most effective when treating women with children. This study utilized a qualitative design asking eight open ended questions to fourteen substance use counselors employed at Prototypes in Pomona, CA. The substance use counselors were asked questions regarding what treatments they offered at their facility, what they believed the most effective treatment modalities are when treating women with children, and what barriers they faced when treating women with children. Findings from this study found the holistic and client centered approaches to be the most effective treatment modalities when treating women with children. The holistic approach considers every aspect of the client’s life and the client centered approach allows the counselors to develop care plans that are specific to their client’s unique needs. Social workers should strive to keep women with their children while they are in treatment. Further research is needed to gain a better understanding of this population and to provide appropriate treatment, services, and resources to women and their children

The Wage Curve, Once More with Feeling: Bayesian Model Averaging of Heckit Models

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Simulation du coût/efficacité du génotypage du facteur Rhésus foetal

L’alloimmunisation maternelle est la réponse immunologique à la présence d’un antigène (alloantigène) dans le sang pendant la grossesse d’une femme RhD négatif. Des options de dépistage existent, mais aucune évaluation du coût/efficacité n’a été réalisée. Ce travail est une étude de simulation des rapports coût/efficacité des options de dépistage du facteur Rhésus fœtal pendant la grossesse de femmes RhD négatif du Québec. Le modèle a considéré quatre options : 1) la prophylaxie systématique, 2) le génotypage fœtal, 3) le typage immunologique du père et 4) le dépistage mixte. En ce qui concerne la première grossesse, la prophylaxie systématique et le typage immunologique Rhésus du père ressortent comme étant les options les plus coût/efficace. Pour ce qui a trait à la deuxième grossesse, le typage immunologique ressort comme l'option la plus coût/efficace. Dans la situation actuelle, l’option génotypage fœtale n'est pas coût/efficace, mais le deviendrait si le test de génotypage feotal coûtait moins de 140 $CA. Mots clés : Rhésus, alloimmunisation, fœtus, anémie, coût/efficacité, dépistage prénatalMaternal alloimmunisation against Rhesus D antigen is an immunologic response to the presence of RhD antigen in the fetus of pregnant RhD negative women. Various screening options exist but the evaluation of their cost/effectiveness has never been done. This research is a simulation study that addresses the cost/effectiveness of fetal Rh screening options. The model considered four options: 1) the systematic use of anti-D immunoglobulin, 2) fetal RhD genotyping, 3) immunological determination of the father Rh factor and 4) mixed screening. During the first pregnancy, the two most cost/effective options were the systematic prophylaxis and immunological Rh typing options. Immunological typing was the most cost/effective option for the second pregnancy. Fetal genotyping is not a cost-effective option unless the cost of the test drops below 140$CA.La alloimmunisacion maternal es la respuesta inmunológica del organismo a la presencia de un alloantigeno en la sangre materna durante la gestación de una mujer RhD negativa. Existen diferentes opciones de despistaje, pero las evaluaciones de costo/eficacia no han sido realizadas. Este es un estudio de simulación de reportes de costo/eficacia de opciones de despistaje del factor Rhesus fetal durante la gestación de mujeres RhD negativas de Quebec. El modelo a considerado cuatro opciones: 1) la profilaxis sistemática, 2) el génotypage fetal, 3) el despistaje inmunológico RhD del papá et 4) el despistaje mixta. Durante el primer embarazo, la profilaxis sistemática y el despistaje inmunológico RhD del padre son las más costo/eficaces. Durante el segundo embarazo la opción despistaje inmunológica del padre es la opción más costo/eficaz. En las circunstancias actuales, la opción de génotypage fetal no es costo/eficaz, pero este lo sería si el test de génotypage costara menos de 140 $ CA

Sex Difference in Cardiorespiratory Stress from High-Intensity Interval Exercise

High-intensity interval exercise is time efficient and has similar cardiorespiratory health benefits as moderate-intensity continuous exercise. However, the prescription of high-intensity exercise may differ between men and women due to sex differences in cardiovascular function. PURPOSE: Therefore, the objective of this study was to examine whether sex differences exist for absolute and relative oxygen uptake (VO2) and heart rate (HR) when exercise was performed at a percentage of maximal cycling work rate measured in watts (Wmax). METHODS: We recruited 8 active college-aged participants (5 men, 3 women). Participants completed an incremental maximal exercise test on a cycle ergometer while VO2, HR, and Wmax were recorded. On a separate day, participants completed a high intensity interval session (4 min bouts with 3 min active recovery) prescribed at 65%Wmax for each bout and at 15%Wmax for the recovery. VO2, HR, and W were averaged from the last minute of each exercise bout for analysis using an independent t-test for sex comparisons. Data are reported in means ± standard deviations and significance was set at PRESULTS: Men exercised at a greater absolute workload than women during interval exercise (191±14 vs. 95±15 W; P2 was higher in men than women during exercise (2.7±0.4 vs. 1.5±0.3 L/min; PP=0.23). Relative VO2 (67±11 vs. 74±6 %VO2max; P=0.15) and HR (95±3 vs. 93±3 %HRmax; P=0.30) were also similar during exercise between sexes. CONCLUSION: In summary, these preliminary data suggest prescribing high-intensity interval exercise at a percentage of maximal work rate results in similar relative cardiorespiratory stress between men and women

Asociaciones de consumidores en el Perú : una mirada al cambio

Actualmente las Asociaciones de Consumidores se encuentran reguladas de manera difusa, es decir, no existe una focalización por sectores que las divida. El presente trabajo de investigación tiene como finalidad proponer una alternativa de cambio respecto de la división de las asociaciones, ya que no basta con que se encuentren registras en el INDECOPI y que las mismas sean a nivel nacional, lo cual favorece a la descentralización, sino que se debe buscar una especialización por materias de las mismas, que permita que puedan desarrollarse en la sociedad de consumo de manera eficiente, logrando el objetivo fundamental que es la Defensa y Protección de los Consumidores.Currently, Consumer Associations are diffusely regulated, that is, there is no targeting by sectors that divide them. The purpose of this research work is to propose an alternative for change regarding the division of associations, since it is not enough to find records in INDECOPI and that they are at the national level, which favors decentralization, but rather that a specialization should be sought by subject of the same, which allows them to be developed in the consumer society in an efficient manner, achieving the fundamental objective that is the Defense and Protection of Consumers.Trabajo académic

Aplicación del sistema de costo por órdenes de producción y su incidencia en la rentabilidad de las empresas del sector industria alimentaria del distrito de Villa María del Triunfo, en el año 2016

El presente trabajo de investigación se refiere al tema de Sistemas de costos en relación con la Rentabilidad en una empresa MYPE, que se puede definir como el éxito para planificar y optimizar procesos en cuanto a la elaboración de los productos. O aquel donde se tomará decisiones referentes a la ganancia obtenida por las ventas y su inversión en productos elaborados por la misma empresa. Las características principales del Sistema de costos son los costos de producción, en donde se verá los costos en materia prima, mano de obra y los CIF y en Rentabilidad, se verá si los precios que se ha señalado al producto le producen ganancia o pérdida. Para analizar esta problemática es necesario mencionar su causa, en este caso es por la ausencia de un sistema de costos, en donde no se tiene un control de los costos y mucho menos están actualizados, lo que no se sabe si el precio del producto les sigue generando ganancia como años atrás. Se realizó esta investigación por el interés de conocer si la empresa Empandas y Salteñas Kurt obtiene ganancia de sus productos más reconocidos con el nuevo sistema de costos que se implementara, actualizando los precios. Como objetivo principal se busca determinar la correlación que existe entre el sistema de costo y la rentabilidad de la empresa Empanadas y Salteñas Kurt, del distrito de Villa María del Triunfo en el año 201 6. En cuanto a la hipótesis es afirmar o negar si existe o no correlación significativamente entre el sistema de costos por órdenes de producción y la rentabilidad de la empresa Empanadas y Salteñas Kurt, del distrito de Villa María del Triunfo en el año 201 6. Junto con los antecedentes nacionales, internacionales, las bases técnicas sobre la investigación, lograre dar una respuesta a la problemática y validar la hipótesis planteada en el párrafo anterior

Promoción como estrategia de marketing y la fidelización del cliente de Bazan Medical Group Chimbote S.A.C., 2021

La investigación elaborada tuvo como finalidad determinar la relación de la promoción como estrategia de marketing y la fidelización del cliente en Bazan Medical Group Chimbote S.A.C., 2021. Para su desarrollo se recurrió a Truell (2014) para sustentar la variable promoción. Para fundamentar la variable fidelización del cliente, se recurrió a Alcaide (2015). El enfoque de la investigación fue cuantitativo, de tipo básico, de diseño no experimental, corte transaccional y alcance correlacional. La población estuvo conformada por 100 clientes y la muestra fue de 50 clientes. Se elaboraron dos cuestionarios para recopilar información por cada variable. Se diseñaron dos cuestionarios para recopilar la información para cada variable, estas fueron validadas por tres especialistas de la Escuela de Administración mediante el Coeficiente de Aiken. La fiabilidad del instrumento se ejecutó con el test de Alpha de Cronbach, obteniendo un resultado de 0,913 y 0,847 para cada variable. Los resultados obtenidos en la prueba de hipótesis mediante el estadígrafo Rho de Pearson, para la hipótesis general el coeficiente de correlación fue de 0.459 y un Sig. (Bilateral) = 0.001; afirmándose que existe relación entre las variables de estudio