Pushing the Limits for Judgmental Consistency: Comparing Random Weighting Schemes with Expert Judgments

Consistent use of information has been identified as a critical issue that can undermine expert predictions. Using three personnel assessment datasets, we conduct Monte Carlo simulations to compare the accuracy of expert judgements for predicting the job performance of managers against four different weighting schemes: consistent random weights, completely random weights, unit weights, and optimal weights. Expert accuracy fell within the completely random weight distribution in two samples and at the low end of the consistent random weight distribution in one sample. In other words, consistent random weights reliably outperformed expert judgment for hiring decisions across three datasets with a total sample size of 847. We see this as a call to develop decision making systems that help control consistency or to manage consistency by aggregating multiple expert judgments

Utilizing Community-Based Social Marketing in a Recycling Intervention With Tailgaters

The purpose of the current study was to design and implement a pilot intervention following the community-based social marketing (CBSM) process (McKenzie-Mohr & Smith, 1999) and Darnton’s (2008) social marketing framework to change the recycling knowledge and behaviors of tailgaters during home football events for a particular institution of higher education. Researchers asked what effect does a CBSM intervention have on the recycling behavior (via self-reported opinion and actual materials recycled) as well as self-reported knowledge among tailgaters during home football events for a particular IHE. In addition, researchers asked whether the use of students and student-athletes, from the respective IHE, as recycling educators would be better received by tailgaters than some other set of individuals. Both objective and subjective evidence support a conclusion that the pilot intervention enhanced the recycling behavior and recycling knowledge of tailgaters. Subjective evidence supports a conclusion that the tailgaters were more receptive to students and student-athletes than they would have been had some other set of individuals been the recycling educators. This study contributes to the body of knowledge by demonstrating that community-based social marketing approaches to behavior change, particularly multifaceted approaches incorporating a variety of techniques, are effective in positively changing behavior in a sport tailgating setting. Furthermore, this study provides insights for managers that tailgaters, in a context rife with identifiable constraints, are receptive to educational and behavior change-based interventions and participating in a research study utilizing the methodologies outlined in the current study. The CBSM approach described herein may serve as an effective manner in which to approach these behavior-change initiatives, green or otherwise. The present study provides an example of how sport organizations, and college athletics in particular, can operate to address proenvironmental efforts specific to mitigating the burden that sport places on the physical environment

IV. Fossil Fishes From The Miocene Ellensburg Formation, South Central Washington

The Ellensburg Formation was named for sediments deposited in the Kittitas Valley along the Yakima River near Ellensburg, Washington (Russell, 1893, 1900). Similar beds are present to the south along the leeward front of the emerging central Cascade Mountains; including the Nile, Selah, Yakima, and Toppenish basins. Further south along the Columbia River, portions of the Dalles Group, Rhododendron Formation, and Sandy River Mudstone are likely temporal equivalents; the latter two of which are found on the windward side of the uplifting Cascade Range (Farooqui, et al., 1981; Evarts et al., 2009).Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146545/1/MP 204vol4.pdfDescription of MP 204vol4.pdf : Main Articl

Low-density series expansions for directed percolation I: A new efficient algorithm with applications to the square lattice

A new algorithm for the derivation of low-density series for percolation on directed lattices is introduced and applied to the square lattice bond and site problems. Numerical evidence shows that the computational complexity grows exponentially, but with a growth factor \lambda < \protect{\sqrt[8]{2}}, which is much smaller than the growth factor \lambda = \protect{\sqrt[4]{2}} of the previous best algorithm. For bond (site) percolation on the directed square lattice the series has been extended to order 171 (158). Analysis of the series yields sharper estimates of the critical points and exponents.Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures (3 of them > 1Mb

The Formation and Evolution of Planetary Systems: Description of the Spitzer Legacy Science Database

We present the science database produced by the Formation and Evolution of Planetary Systems (FEPS) Spitzer Legacy program. Data reduction and validation procedures for the IRAC, MIPS, and IRS instruments are described in detail. We also derive stellar properties for the FEPS sample from available broad-band photometry and spectral types, and present an algorithm to normalize Kurucz synthetic spectra to optical and near-infrared photometry. The final FEPS data products include IRAC and MIPS photometry for each star in the FEPS sample and calibrated IRS spectra.Comment: 64 pages, 12 figures, 5 tables; accepted for publication in ApJ

Early angiography versus conservative treatment in patients with non–ST elevation acute myocardial infarction

AbstractOBJECTIVESTo compare short- and long-term outcome after early invasive or conservative strategies in the treatment of non-ST segment elevation acute myocardial infarction (AMI).BACKGROUNDIt is uncertain whether or not there is benefit from emergent invasive diagnosis and treatment of AMI in patients without ST segment elevation on the admission electrocardiogram (ECG).METHODSIn a cohort of 1,635 consecutive patients with AMI who presented to hospitals without ST segment elevation on their admission ECG, we compared treatments, hospital course and outcome in 308 patients who presented to hospitals whose initial strategy favored early angiography and appropriate intervention when indicated versus 1,327 similar patients who presented to hospitals that favor a more conservative initial approach.RESULTSAt baseline, patients admitted to hospitals favoring an early invasive strategy were younger, more predominately Caucasian and had less comorbidity. Early coronary angiography occurred in 58.8% versus 8% (p < 0.001), and early angioplasty was performed in 44.8% versus 6.1% (p < 0.001) in the two different cohorts. Patients treated in hospitals favoring the early invasive strategy had a lower 30-day (5.5% vs. 9.5%, p = 0.026) and four-year mortality (20% vs. 37%, p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed a trend towards lower hospital mortality (OR = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.29 to 1.09) and a significant lower long-term mortality (hazard ratio = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.47 to 0.80) in patients admitted to hospitals favoring an early invasive strategy.CONCLUSIONSThese data suggested that an early invasive strategy in patients with AMI and nondiagnostic ECG changes is associated with lower long-term mortality

The Journal of Comorbidity affiliates with the Society for Academic Primary Care

No abstract available