Predicting River Macroinvertebrate Communities Distributional Shifts under Future Global Change Scenarios in the Spanish Mediterranean Area

Several studies on global change over the next century predict increases in mean air temperatures of between 1°C to 5°C that would affect not only water temperature but also river flow. Climate is the predominant environmental driver of thermal and flow regimes of freshwater ecosystems, determining survival, growth, metabolism, phenology and behaviour as well as biotic interactions of aquatic fauna. Thus, these changes would also have consequences for species phenology, their distribution range, and the composition and dynamics of communities. These effects are expected to be especially severe in the Mediterranean basin due its particular climate conditions, seriously threatening Southern European ecosystems. In addition, species with restricted distributions and narrow ecological requirements, such as those living in the headwaters of rivers, will be severely affected. The study area corresponds to the Spanish Mediterranean and Balearic Islands, delimited by the Köppen climate boundary. With the application of the MEDPACS (MEDiterranean Prediction And Classification System) predictive approach, the macroinvertebrate community was predicted for current conditions and compared with three posible scenarios of watertemperature increase and its associated water flow reductions. The results indicate that the aquatic macroinvertebrate communities will undergo a drastic impact, with reductions in taxa richness for each scenario in relation to simulated current conditions, accompanied by changes in the taxa distribution pattern. Accordingly, the distribution area of most of the taxa (65.96%) inhabiting the mid-high elevations would contract and rise in altitude. Thus, families containing a great number of generalist species will move upstream to colonize new zones with lower water temperatures. By contrast, more vulnerable taxa will undergo reductions in their distribution area.This work was funded by GUADALMED-II (REN2001-3438-C07-06/HID), a project of excellence from “Junta de Andalucía” (RNM-02654/FEDER), the Spanish “Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación” (CGL2007-61856/BOS), projects and a collaboration agreement between the “Spanish Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, Medio Rural y Marino” and the University of Granada (21.812-0062/8511)

Diagnostico del Impacto del Palangre de Fondo en los Hábitats Bentónicos en los LICs de la RN20000

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An evaluation of freshwater monitoring programs in ILTER nodes and mountain national parks: identifying key variables to monitor global change effects

Este artículo contiene 30 páginas, 6 tablas, 4 figuras.Identifying and quantifying global change impacts on biotic and abiotic components of ecosystems is critical to promote an effective adaptation that increases the success of conservation strategies. To achieve this goal, global and regional assessment efforts require certain degree of harmonization on local monitoring programs to establish relevant comparisons at different spatio-temporal scales. Otherwise, the lack of harmonization might hinder the detection and assessment on the effects of human impacts. In this work we have compiled information on freshwater monitoring programs located in areas of intensive research and conservation interest: International Long Term Ecological Research (ILTER) nodes and mountain National Parks. We aimed at evaluating the quality and robustness of these programs to assess the impact of global change, addressing from the worldwide to the European and Spanish national scale. Results highlighted that freshwater monitoring programs lack a common strategy to monitor these ecosystems. Even at the continental and national scales, contrasting strategies and level of detail have been historically applied. Water quality, habitat and biodiversity are more commonly monitored than community structure and ecosystem functioning. Monitoring efforts on the Spanish Mountain National parks indicated differences on the targeted aquatic ecosystems. Rivers and lakes received a higher attention, while mires were rarely considered. Our results provide evidence that greater efforts should be directed towards constructing a coordinated strategy to monitor freshwater ecosystems at national, continental, and global scales. This strategy should involve a shared backbone of biophysical and biogeochemical variables for each habitat type on agreed protocols that are implemented across regions and administrative borders. Achieving this will support a substantial advance on the ecological research to further delineate proper conservation strategies to face the challenges imposed by global change.This study was carried out with the financial support of the EU LIFE programme, as part of the project LIFE-DIVAQUA (Proyecto LIFE18 NAT/ES/000121).Peer reviewe

Distributional and altitudinal shifts between different modelled scenario and current situation (scenario 0) for each taxon.

<p>Distributional and altitudinal shifts between different modelled scenario and current situation (scenario 0) for each taxon.</p

Representation of EQR in the scenarios modelled.

<p>A. Altitudinal map of study area. B. Ecological Quality Ratio (EQR) calculated for each grid and scenario: scenario 0 (current conditions), scenario 1 (+1.70°C and -10% flow), scenario 2 (+2.45°C and -20% flow), scenario 3 (+3.30°C and -30% flow). Bottom bars indicate the percentage of grids for each EQR value. Colours are according to the European Water Framework Directive requirements.</p