Combining Magma Flow and Deformation Modeling to Explain Observed Changes in Tilt

The understanding of magma ascent dynamics is essential in forecasting the scale, style and timing of volcanic eruptions. The monitoring of near-field deformation is widely used to gain insight into these dynamics, and has been linked to stress changes in the upper conduit. The ascent of magma through the conduit exerts shear stress on the conduit wall, pulling up the surrounding edifice, whilst overpressure in the upper conduit pushes the surrounding edifice outwards. How much shear stress and pressure is produced during magma ascent, and the relative contribution of each to the deformation, has until now only been explored conceptually. By combining flow and deformation modeling using COMSOL Multiphysics, we for the first time present a quantitative model that links magma ascent to deformation. We quantify how both shear stress and pressure vary spatially within a cylindrical conduit, and show that shear stress generally dominates observed changes in tilt close to the conduit. However, the relative contribution of pressure is not insignificant, and both pressure and shear stress must be considered when interpreting deformation data. We demonstrate that significant changes in tilt can be driven by changes in the driving pressure gradient or volatile content of the magma. The relative contribution of shear stress and pressure to the tilt varies considerably depending on these parameters. Our work provides insight into the range of elastic moduli that should be considered when modeling edifice-scale rock masses, and we show that even where the edifice is modeled as weak, shear stress generally dominates the near field deformation over pressurization of the conduit. While our model addresses cyclic tilt changes observed during activity at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador, between 2013 and 2014, it is also applicable to silicic volcanoes in general

Warped Riemannian metrics for location-scale models

The present paper shows that warped Riemannian metrics, a class of Riemannian metrics which play a prominent role in Riemannian geometry, are also of fundamental importance in information geometry. Precisely, the paper features a new theorem, which states that the Rao-Fisher information metric of any location-scale model, defined on a Riemannian manifold, is a warped Riemannian metric, whenever this model is invariant under the action of some Lie group. This theorem is a valuable tool in finding the expression of the Rao-Fisher information metric of location-scale models defined on high-dimensional Riemannian manifolds. Indeed, a warped Riemannian metric is fully determined by only two functions of a single variable, irrespective of the dimension of the underlying Riemannian manifold. Starting from this theorem, several original contributions are made. The expression of the Rao-Fisher information metric of the Riemannian Gaussian model is provided, for the first time in the literature. A generalised definition of the Mahalanobis distance is introduced, which is applicable to any location-scale model defined on a Riemannian manifold. The solution of the geodesic equation is obtained, for any Rao-Fisher information metric defined in terms of warped Riemannian metrics. Finally, using a mixture of analytical and numerical computations, it is shown that the parameter space of the von Mises-Fisher model of $n$-dimensional directional data, when equipped with its Rao-Fisher information metric, becomes a Hadamard manifold, a simply-connected complete Riemannian manifold of negative sectional curvature, for $n = 2,\ldots,8$. Hopefully, in upcoming work, this will be proved for any value of $n$.Comment: first version, before submissio

Association of the 894G>T polymorphism in the endothelial nitric oxide synthase gene with risk of acute myocardial infarction

Background: This study was designed to investigate the association of the 894G>T polymorphism in the eNOS gene with risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), extent of coronary artery disease (CAD) on coronary angiography, and in-hospital mortality after AMI. Methods: We studied 1602 consecutive patients who were enrolled in the GEMIG study. The control group was comprised by 727 individuals, who were randomly selected from the general adult population. Results: The prevalence of the Asp298 variant of eNOS was not found to be significantly and independently associated with risk of AMI (RR = 1.08, 95%CI = 0.77–1.51, P = 0.663), extent of CAD on angiography (OR = 1.18, 95%CI = 0.63–2.23, P = 0.605) and in-hospital mortality (RR = 1.08, 95%CI = 0.29–4.04, P = 0.908). Conclusion: In contrast to previous reports, homozygosity for the Asp298 variant of the 894G>T polymorphism in the eNOS gene was not found to be associated with risk of AMI, extent of CAD and in-hospital mortality after AM

Opening out and closing down: The treatment of uncertainty in transport planning’s forecasting paradigm

© 2019, The Author(s). Since the 1960s, development of the transport system has been framed by the notion of forecasting future demand. Yet the past decade or more appears to signal some significant changes to the role of travel in society which are having a material impact on how much people travel (and may travel in the future). Coupled with the potential for major technological changes and a range of climate adaptation scenarios, the future of mobility presents today’s decision making on transport strategy and investment with a broader set of uncertainties than has previously been considered. This paper examines current mainstream practice for incorporating uncertainty into decision-making, through an illustrative case study of the highly codified approaches of the Department for Transport in England. It deconstructs the issue by first focussing on different ways in which there is an opening out or acceptance of new uncertainties and how this creates a (wider) set of potential futures. It then turns to consider how this set of futures is used, or not, in decision-making, i.e. the process of closing down uncertainty to arrive at or at least inform a decision. We demonstrate that, because the range of uncertainties has broadened in scope and scale, the traditional technocratic approach of closing down decisions through sensitivity testing is at odds with the greater breadth now being called for at the opening out stage. We conclude that transport decision-making would benefit from a rebalancing of technical depth with analytical breadth. The paper outlines a plausible new approach to opening out and closing down that is starting to be applied in practice. This approach must be accompanied by an opening up of the processes by which technical advice for decisions are reached and how uncertainties are understood and negotiated

Effects of the physiological parameters on the signal-to-noise ratio of single myoelectric channel

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>An important measure of the performance of a myoelectric (ME) control system for powered artificial limbs is the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) at the output of ME channel. However, few studies illustrated the neuron-muscular interactive effects on the SNR at ME control channel output. In order to obtain a comprehensive understanding on the relationship between the physiology of individual motor unit and the ME control performance, this study investigates the effects of physiological factors on the SNR of single ME channel by an analytical and simulation approach, where the SNR is defined as the ratio of the mean squared value estimation at the channel output and the variance of the estimation.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Mathematical models are formulated based on three fundamental elements: a motoneuron firing mechanism, motor unit action potential (MUAP) module, and signal processor. Myoelectric signals of a motor unit are synthesized with different physiological parameters, and the corresponding SNR of single ME channel is numerically calculated. Effects of physiological multi factors on the SNR are investigated, including properties of the motoneuron, MUAP waveform, recruitment order, and firing pattern, etc.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results of the mathematical model, supported by simulation, indicate that the SNR of a single ME channel is associated with the voluntary contraction level. We showed that a model-based approach can provide insight into the key factors and bioprocess in ME control. The results of this modelling work can be potentially used in the improvement of ME control performance and for the training of amputees with powered prostheses.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The SNR of single ME channel is a force, neuronal and muscular property dependent parameter. The theoretical model provides possible guidance to enhance the SNR of ME channel by controlling physiological variables or conscious contraction level.</p

Rectal Transmission of Transmitted/Founder HIV-1 Is Efficiently Prevented by Topical 1% Tenofovir in BLT Humanized Mice

Rectal microbicides are being developed to prevent new HIV infections in both men and women. We focused our in vivo preclinical efficacy study on rectally-applied tenofovir. BLT humanized mice (n = 43) were rectally inoculated with either the primary isolate HIV-1(JRCSF) or the MSM-derived transmitted/founder (T/F) virus HIV-1(THRO) within 30 minutes following treatment with topical 1% tenofovir or vehicle. Under our experimental conditions, in the absence of drug treatment we observed 50% and 60% rectal transmission by HIV-1(JRCSF) and HIV-1(THRO), respectively. Topical tenofovir reduced rectal transmission to 8% (1/12; log rank p = 0.03) for HIV-1(JRCSF) and 0% (0/6; log rank p = 0.02) for HIV-1(THRO). This is the first demonstration that any human T/F HIV-1 rectally infects humanized mice and that transmission of the T/F virus can be efficiently blocked by rectally applied 1% tenofovir. These results obtained in BLT mice, along with recent ex vivo, Phase 1 trial and non-human primate reports, provide a critically important step forward in the development of tenofovir-based rectal microbicides

Having a lot of a good thing: multiple important group memberships as a source of self-esteem.

Copyright: © 2015 Jetten et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are creditedMembership in important social groups can promote a positive identity. We propose and test an identity resource model in which personal self-esteem is boosted by membership in additional important social groups. Belonging to multiple important group memberships predicts personal self-esteem in children (Study 1a), older adults (Study 1b), and former residents of a homeless shelter (Study 1c). Study 2 shows that the effects of multiple important group memberships on personal self-esteem are not reducible to number of interpersonal ties. Studies 3a and 3b provide longitudinal evidence that multiple important group memberships predict personal self-esteem over time. Studies 4 and 5 show that collective self-esteem mediates this effect, suggesting that membership in multiple important groups boosts personal self-esteem because people take pride in, and derive meaning from, important group memberships. Discussion focuses on when and why important group memberships act as a social resource that fuels personal self-esteem.This study was supported by 1. Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (FT110100238) awarded to Jolanda Jetten (see http://www.arc.gov.au) 2. Australian Research Council Linkage Grant (LP110200437) to Jolanda Jetten and Genevieve Dingle (see http://www.arc.gov.au) 3. support from the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research Social Interactions, Identity and Well-Being Program to Nyla Branscombe, S. Alexander Haslam, and Catherine Haslam (see http://www.cifar.ca)

Timeliness of contact tracing among flight passengers for influenza A/H1N1 2009

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>During the initial containment phase of influenza A/H1N1 2009, close contacts of cases were traced to provide antiviral prophylaxis within 48 h after exposure and to alert them on signs of disease for early diagnosis and treatment. Passengers seated on the same row, two rows in front or behind a patient infectious for influenza, during a flight of ≥ 4 h were considered close contacts. This study evaluates the timeliness of flight-contact tracing (CT) as performed following national and international CT requests addressed to the Center of Infectious Disease Control (CIb/RIVM), and implemented by the Municipal Health Services of Schiphol Airport.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Elapsed days between date of flight arrival and the date passenger lists became available (contact details identified - CI) was used as proxy for timeliness of CT. In a retrospective study, dates of flight arrival, onset of illness, laboratory diagnosis, CT request and identification of contacts details through passenger lists, following CT requests to the RIVM for flights landed at Schiphol Airport were collected and analyzed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>24 requests for CT were identified. Three of these were declined as over 4 days had elapsed since flight arrival. In 17 out of 21 requests, contact details were obtained within 7 days after arrival (81%). The average delay between arrival and CI was 3,9 days (range 2-7), mainly caused by delay in diagnosis of the index patient after arrival (2,6 days). In four flights (19%), contacts were not identified or only after > 7 days. CI involving Dutch airlines was faster than non-Dutch airlines (<it>P </it>< 0,05). Passenger locator cards did not improve timeliness of CI. In only three flights contact details were identified within 2 days after arrival.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>CT for influenza A/H1N1 2009 among flight passengers was not successful for timely provision of prophylaxis. CT had little additional value for alerting passengers for disease symptoms, as this information already was provided during and after the flight. Public health authorities should take into account patient delays in seeking medical advise and laboratory confirmation in relation to maximum time to provide postexposure prophylaxis when deciding to install contact tracing measures. International standardization of CT guidelines is recommended.</p

Academic Performance and Behavioral Patterns

Identifying the factors that influence academic performance is an essential part of educational research. Previous studies have documented the importance of personality traits, class attendance, and social network structure. Because most of these analyses were based on a single behavioral aspect and/or small sample sizes, there is currently no quantification of the interplay of these factors. Here, we study the academic performance among a cohort of 538 undergraduate students forming a single, densely connected social network. Our work is based on data collected using smartphones, which the students used as their primary phones for two years. The availability of multi-channel data from a single population allows us to directly compare the explanatory power of individual and social characteristics. We find that the most informative indicators of performance are based on social ties and that network indicators result in better model performance than individual characteristics (including both personality and class attendance). We confirm earlier findings that class attendance is the most important predictor among individual characteristics. Finally, our results suggest the presence of strong homophily and/or peer effects among university students

Expression of the Na(+)/l(- )symporter (NIS) is markedly decreased or absent in gastric cancer and intestinal metaplastic mucosa of Barrett esophagus

BACKGROUND: The sodium/iodide symporter (NIS) is a plasma membrane glycoprotein that mediates iodide (I(-)) transport in the thyroid, lactating breast, salivary glands, and stomach. Whereas NIS expression and regulation have been extensively investigated in healthy and neoplastic thyroid and breast tissues, little is known about NIS expression and function along the healthy and diseased gastrointestinal tract. METHODS: Thus, we investigated NIS expression by immunohistochemical analysis in 155 gastrointestinal tissue samples and by immunoblot analysis in 17 gastric tumors from 83 patients. RESULTS: Regarding the healthy Gl tract, we observed NIS expression exclusively in the basolateral region of the gastric mucin-producing epithelial cells. In gastritis, positive NIS staining was observed in these cells both in the presence and absence of Helicobacter pylori. Significantly, NIS expression was absent in gastric cancer, independently of its histological type. Only focal faint NIS expression was detected in the direct vicinity of gastric tumors, i.e., in the histologically intact mucosa, the expression becoming gradually stronger and linear farther away from the tumor. Barrett mucosa with junctional and fundic-type columnar metaplasia displayed positive NIS staining, whereas Barrett mucosa with intestinal metaplasia was negative. NIS staining was also absent in intestinalized gastric polyps. CONCLUSION: That NIS expression is markedly decreased or absent in case of intestinalization or malignant transformation of the gastric mucosa suggests that NIS may prove to be a significant tumor marker in the diagnosis and prognosis of gastric malignancies and also precancerous lesions such as Barrett mucosa, thus extending the medical significance of NIS beyond thyroid disease