Can Ecological Interactions be Inferred from Spatial Data?

The characterisation and quantication of ecological interactions, and the construction of species distributions and their associated ecological niches, is of fundamental theoretical and practical importance. In this paper we give an overview of a Bayesian inference framework, developed over the last 10 years, which, using spatial data, offers a general formalism within which ecological interactions may be characterised and quantied. Interactions are identied through deviations of the spatial distribution of co-occurrences of spatial variables relative to a benchmark for the non-interacting system, and based on a statistical ensemble of spatial cells. The formalism allows for the integration of both biotic and abiotic factors of arbitrary resolution. We concentrate on the conceptual and mathematical underpinnings of the formalism, showing how, using the Naive Bayes approximation, it can be used to not only compare and contrast the relative contribution from each variable, but also to construct species distributions and niches based on arbitrary variable type. We show how the formalism can be used to quantify confounding and therefore help disentangle the complex causal chains that are present in ecosystems. We also show species distributions and their associated niches can be used to infer standard "micro" ecological interactions, such as predation and parasitism. We present several representative use cases that validate our framework, both in terms of being consistent with present knowledge of a set of known interactions, as well as making and validating predictions about new, previously unknown interactions in the case of zoonoses

Extra-metabolic energy use and the rise in human hyper-density

Humans, like all organisms, are subject to fundamental biophysical laws. Van Valen predicted that, because of zero-sum dynamics, all populations of all species in a given environment flux the same amount of energy on average. Damuth’s ’energetic equivalence rule’ supported Van Valen´s conjecture by showing a tradeoff between few big animals per area with high individual metabolic rates compared to abundant small species with low energy requirements. We use metabolic scaling theory to compare variation in densities and individual energy use in human societies to other land mammals. We show that hunter-gatherers occurred at densities lower than the average for a mammal of our size. Most modern humans, in contrast, concentrate in large cities at densities up to four orders of magnitude greater than hunter-gatherers, yet consume up to two orders of magnitude more energy per capita. Today, cities across the globe flux greater energy than net primary productivity on a per area basis. This is possible by importing enormous amounts of energy and materials required to sustain hyper-dense, modern humans. The metabolic rift with nature created by modern cities fueled largely by fossil energy poses formidable challenges for establishing a sustainable relationship on a rapidly urbanizing, yet finite planet

Nonequilibrium evolution of volatility in origination and extinction explains fat-tailed fluctuations in Phanerozoic biodiversity

Fluctuations in biodiversity, large and small, pervade the fossil record, yet we do not understand the processes generating them. Here, we extend theory from nonequilibrium statistical physics to describe the fat-tailed form of fluctuations in Phanerozoic marine invertebrate richness. Using this theory, known as superstatistics, we show that heterogeneous rates of origination and extinction between clades and conserved rates within clades account for this fat-tailed form. We identify orders and families as the taxonomic levels at which clades experience interclade heterogeneity and within-clade homogeneity of rates, indicating that families are subsystems in local statistical equilibrium, while the entire system is not. The separation of timescales between within-clade background rates and the origin of major innovations producing new orders and families allows within-clade dynamics to reach equilibrium, while between-clade dynamics do not. The distribution of different dynamics across clades is consistent with niche conservatism and pulsed exploration of adaptive landscapes.Fil: Rominger, Andrew J.. No especifíca;Fil: Fuentes, Miguel Angel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Filosóficas. - Sociedad Argentina de Análisis Filosófico. Instituto de Investigaciones Filosóficas; Argentina. Universidad San Sebastián; ChileFil: Marquet, Pablo A.. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile; Chile. Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad; Chile. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; Méxic

A review on coastal urban ecology: research gaps, challenges, and needs

Coastal urban areas have dramatically increased during the last decades, however, coastal research integrating the impacts and challenges facing urban areas is still scarce. To examine research advances and critical gaps, a review of the literature on coastal urban ecology was performed. Articles were selected following a structured decision tree and data were classified into study disciplines, approaches, type of analysis, main research objectives, and Pickett's paradigms in-, of-, and for- the city, among other categories. From a total of 237 publications, results show that most of the research comes from the USA, China, and Australia, and has been carried out mostly in large cities with populations between 1 and 5 million people. Focus has been placed on ecological studies, spatial and quantitative analysis and pollution in coastal urban areas. Most of the studies on urban ecology in coastal zones were developed at nearshore terrestrial environments and only 22.36% included the marine ecosystem. Urban ecological studies in coastal areas have mainly been carried out under the paradigm in the city with a focus on the disciplines of biology and ecology. Results suggest a series of disciplinary, geographical, and approach biases which can present a number of risks. Foremost among these is a lack of knowledge on social dimensions which can impact on sustainability. A key risk relates to the fact that lessons and recommendations of research are mainly from developed countries and large cities which might have different institutional, planning and cultural settings compared to developing and mid-income countries. Scientific research on coastal urban areas needs to diversify toward an ecology of and for the cities, in order to support coastal development in a diversity of countries and settings

Natural landscape, infrastructure, and health : The physical activity implications of urban green space composition among the elderly

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu MdM-2015-0552This project was funded by the RecerCaixa research fund in the 2016 call, under the original title of Ciudad, calidad de vida y movilidad activa en la tercera edad: Un análisis multimetodológico a través de Tracking Living Labs.Urban green spaces (UGS) have been linked with a series of benefits for the environment, and for the physical health and well-being of urban residents. This is of great importance in the context of the aging of modern societies. However, UGS have different forms and characteristics that can determine their utilization. Common elements in UGS such as the type of vegetation and the type of surface are surprisingly understudied in regard to their relationship with the type of activity undertaken in UGS. This paper aims to explore the relationship between landscape diversity and the type of surface with the time spent and the physical activity intensity performed by seniors. To do so, this study uses GPS tracking data in combination with accelerometer data gathered from 63 seniors residing in Barcelona, Spain. Results showed that senior participants spent little time inside the analyzed UGS and sedentary behaviors (SBs) were more common than physical activities (PAs). The presence of pavement surfaces positively influenced the total time spent in UGS while gravel surfaces were negatively associated with time spent in active behaviors. The provision of well-defined and maintained paved areas and paths are some key infrastructures to be considered when designing UGS for overall urban residents and, especially, when aiming to potentiate the access for senior visitors

From the Holocene to the Anthropocene: a historical framework for land cover change in southwestern South America in the past 15,000 years.

a b s t r a c t The main forest transitions that took place in south-central Chile from the end of the last glaciation to the present are reviewed here with the aim of identifying the main climatic and socio-economic drivers of land cover change. The first great transition, driven primarily by global warming, is the postglacial expansion of forests, with human populations from about 15,000 cal. yr. BP, restricted to coastlines and river basins and localized impact of forest fire. Charcoal evidence of fire increased in south-central Chile and in global records from about 12,000 to 6000 cal. yr. BP, which could be attributed at least partly to people. The subsequent expansion of agriculture led to much clearing of forests and the spread of weeds and other indicators of open habitats. The Spanish colonial period in America may have been followed by a transient expansion of forest cover into abandoned land, as indigenous population declined rapidly due to disease and slaughter. The 18th and 19th centuries brought about extensive loss of forests due to the massive impact of lumber extraction for mining operations both in central Chile and in western North America. Two centuries of intensive deforestation, coupled to grazing by cattle and extremely variable rainfall had long-lasting effects on forest cover in south-central Chile, which persist until today. The transition from a preindustrial to an industrial society brought about the "golden age" of timber harvest, assisted by mobile sawmills and railway transportation since the late 1800s. These advances led to the exhaustion of native commercial timber by the late 20th century in south-central Chile. In North America, harvestable stands were exhausted in New England and the Midwest around 1920. Settlement of the independent territories in the late 1800s and early 1900s implied vast burning and clearing of land and mounting soil erosion. Industrial forestry, based on government-subsidized massive plantations of short-rotation exotic trees, developed in the late 20th century, in connection with postindustrial displacement of exploitative activities from developed to third-world nations. In the last two decades, economic globalization and free trade promoted the expansion of new crops and further decline of woodlands, despite modest increases in forest cover. These patterns are repeated in many Latin American countries. To prevent further depletion of native forest resources and to provide an insurance against climate change, in the 21st century developing nations should aim at: (1) relocating subsidies from fiber farms to restoring diverse forest cover, (2) promoting ecosystem management of diverse forest and crops within landscapes, and (3) fostering diverse cultural relationships between people and their land