Shorter blooms expected with longer warm periods under climate change: an example from a shallow meso-eutrophic Mediterranean lake

AbstractSatellite data from the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) lakes project were used to examine the influence of climate on chlorophyll-a (Chl-a). Nonparametric multiplicative regression and machine learning were used to explain Chl-a concentration trend and dynamics. The main parameters of importance were seasonality, interannual variation, lake level, water temperature, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and antecedent rainfall. No evidence was found for an earlier onset of the summer phytoplankton bloom related to the earlier onset of warmer temperatures. Instead, a curvilinear relationship between Chl-a and the temperature length of season above 20°C (LOS) was found with longer periods of warmer temperature leading to blooms of shorter duration. We suggest that a longer period of warmer temperatures in the summer may result in earlier uptake of nutrients or increased calcite precipitation resulting in a shortening of the duration of phytoplankton blooms. The current scenario of increasing LOS of temperature with climate change may lead to an alteration of phytoplankton phenological cycles resulting in blooms of shorter duration in lakes where nutrients become limiting. Satellite-derived information on lake temperature and Chl-a concentration proved essential in detecting trends at appropriate resolution over time

Satellite-assisted monitoring of water quality to support the implementation of the Water Framework Directive

The EU Water Framework Directive1 (WFD) is an ambitious legislation framework to achieve good ecological and chemical status for all surface waters and good quantitative and chemical status for groundwater by 2027. A total of 111,062 surface waterbodies are presently reported on under the Directive, 46% of which are actively monitored for ecological status. Of these waterbodies 80% are rivers, 16% are lakes, and 4% are coastal and transitional waters. In the last assessment, 4% (4,442) of waterbodies still had unknown ecological status, while in 23% monitoring did not include in situ water sampling to support ecological status assessment2. For individual (mainly biological) assessment criteria the proportion of waterbodies without observation data is much larger; the full scope of monitoring under the WFD is therefore still far from being realised. At the same time, 60% of surface waters did not achieve ‘good’ status in the second river basin management plan and waterbodies in Europe are considered to be at high risk of having poor water quality based on combined microbial, physical and physicochemical indicators3

Validation of Sentinel-2 (MSI) and Sentinel-3 (OLCI) water quality products in turbid estuaries using fixed monitoring stations

It is common in estuarine waters to place fixed monitoring stations, with the advantages of easy maintenance and continuous measurements. These two features make fixed monitoring stations indispensable for understanding the optical complexity of estuarine waters and enable an improved quantification of uncertainties in satellite-derived water quality variables. However, comparing the point-scale measurements of stationary monitoring systems to time-snapshots of satellite pixels suffers from additional uncertainties related to temporal/spatial discrepancies. This research presents a method for validating satellite-derived water quality variables with the continuous measurements of a fixed monitoring station in the Ems Dollard estuary on the Dutch-German borders. The method has two steps; first, similar in-situ measurements are grouped. Second, satellite observations are upscaled to match these point measurements in time and spatial scales. The upscaling approach was based on harmonizing the probability distribution functions of satellite observations and in-situ measurements using the first and second moments. The fixed station provided a continuous record of data on suspended particulate matter (SPM) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations at 1 min intervals for 1 year (2016–2017). Satellite observations were provided by Sentinel-2 (MultiSpectral Instrument, S2-MSI) and Sentinel-3 (Ocean and Land Color Instrument, S3-OLCI) sensors for the same location and time of in-situ measurements. Compared to traditional validation procedures, the proposed method has improved the overall fit and produced valuable information on the ranges of goodness-of-fit measures (slope, intercept, correlation coefficient, and normalized root-mean-square deviation). The correlation coefficient between measured and derived SPM concentrations has improved from 0.16 to 0.52 for S2-MSI and 0.14 to 0.84 for S3-OLCI. For the Chl-a matchup, the improvement was from 0.26 to 0.82 and from 0.14 to 0.63 for S2-MSI and S3-OLCI, respectively. The uncertainty in the derived SPM and Chl-a concentrations was reduced by 30 and 23% for S2-SMI and by 28 and 16% for S3-OLCI. The high correlation and reduced uncertainty signify that the matchup pairs are observing the same fluctuations in the measured variable. These new goodness-of-fit measures correspond to the results of the performed sensitivity analysis, previous literature, and reflect the inherent accuracy of the applied derivation model

Detecting climate driven changes in chlorophyll-a using high frequency monitoring: the impact of the 2019 European heatwave in three contrasting aquatic systems

The frequency of heatwave events in Europe is increasing as a result of climate change. This can have implications for the water quality and ecological functioning of aquatic systems. We deployed three spectroradiometer WISPstations at three sites in Europe (Italy, Estonia, and Lithuania/Russia) to measure chlorophyll-a at high frequency. A heatwave in July 2019 occurred with record daily maximum temperatures over 40 °C in parts of Europe. The effects of the resulting storm that ended the heatwave were more discernable than the heatwave itself. Following the storm, chlorophyll-a concentrations increased markedly in two of the lakes and remained high for the duration of the summer while at one site concentrations increased linearly. Heatwaves and subsequent storms appeared to play an important role in structuring the phenology of the primary producers, with wider implications for lake functioning. Chlorophyll-a peaked in early September, after which a wind event dissipated concentrations until calmer conditions returned. Synoptic coordinated high frequency monitoring needs to be advanced in Europe as part of water management policy and to improve knowledge on the implications of climate change. Lakes, as dynamic ecosystems with fast moving species-succession, provide a prism to observe the scale of future change