Public Health Impacts from Fires in Tropical Landscapes

Fires are the primary method of deforestation and agricultural management in the tropics, but associated emissions such as aerosols, ozone, and carbon monoxide can have negative impacts on ecosystems, climate, and public health. Recent advances in satellite monitoring of fire activity, including using thermal anomalies for active fire detections and burn scar mapping of post-fire effects, have offered an unprecedented level of detail in understanding the magnitude and extent of fire activity. This dissertation aims to quantify the human health impact across populations in tropical regions by determining which areas are the most susceptible to transported fire emissions and how this exposure varies over time. The following chapters can be used to highlight critical conservation regions, not only for conserving ecosystems for biodiversity and climate benefits, but also for protecting public health. To address how fire emissions can affect regional populations, satellite observations of fire activity are combined with models of how tropical fire emissions are transported in the atmosphere. Satellites provide two primary pieces of information for this approach: 1) measurements of the distribution and magnitude of fire activity, and 2) categorization of fire types (such as agricultural burning or deforestation) by overlaying observed fire patterns on land use maps. Atmospheric models perform the crucial step of simulating how emissions evolve and where they are transported after release into the atmosphere. The following dissertation chapters are linked through exploration of fire emissions impacts from continental to local scales, including implementing fire emissions inventories into atmospheric models, quantifying population exposure to fire activity in Equatorial Asia, and projecting fire emissions associated with various future land use scenarios in Sumatra. Model estimates of aerosol concentrations are more influenced than trace gases by using finer temporal resolution fire emissions, due to interactions between emissions and modeled meteorology and transport. This in turn can impact air quality estimates by permitting higher peak concentrations. In addition, model results show that population exposure to fire emissions in Equatorial Asia is highly variable over time depending on the phase of the El Niño cycle; strong El Niño years can have fire contributions to fine particulate matter of up to 200 µg/m³ near fire sources, corresponding to 200 additional days per year over the World Health Organization 50 µg/m³ 24-hour fine particulate matter air quality target. These risks are not confined to people living near fire sources, but expose broad regional populations due to the atmospheric transport of emissions. Health impacts also depend on underlying fuel characteristics, with the future magnitude of Equatorial Asian fire emissions estimated to be strongly dependent on the level of protection given to fuel-rich peatswamp forests (contributing 33-48% of future emissions in the absence of protection). Collectively, these chapters emphasize variability in how tropical fire emissions affect regional population exposures to outdoor air pollution, and the need to consider the dependence of this public health effect on different fuel types and year-to-year variations in climate. The results described in this dissertation quantify direct benefits of conservation for people living near fire areas

Lipid And Oxylipin Profiles During Aging And Sprout Development In Potato Tubers (Solanum Tuberosum L.)

peer reviewe

The Role of Temporal Evolution in Modeling Atmospheric Emissions from Tropical Fires

Fire emissions associated with tropical land use change and maintenance influence atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate. In this study, we explore the effects of representing fire emissions at daily versus monthly resolution in a global composition-climate model. We find that simulations of aerosols are impacted more by the temporal resolution of fire emissions than trace gases such as carbon monoxide or ozone. Daily-resolved datasets concentrate emissions from fire events over shorter time periods and allow them to more realistically interact with model meteorology, reducing how often emissions are concurrently released with precipitation events and in turn increasing peak aerosol concentrations. The magnitude of this effect varies across tropical ecosystem types, ranging from smaller changes in modeling the low intensity, frequent burning typical of savanna ecosystems to larger differences when modeling the short-term, intense fires that characterize deforestation events. The utility of modeling fire emissions at a daily resolution also depends on the application, such as modeling exceedances of particulate matter concentrations over air quality guidelines or simulating regional atmospheric heating patterns

Effectiveness of Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) for reducing fires on oil palm concessions in Indonesia from 2012 to 2015

Fire is a common tool for land conversion and management associated with oil palm production. Fires can cause biodiversity and carbon losses, emit pollutants that deteriorate air quality and harm human health, and damage property. The Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) prohibits the use of fire on certified concessions. However, efforts to suppress fires are more difficult during El Niño conditions and on peatlands. In this paper, we address the following questions for oil palm concessions developed prior to 2012 in Sumatra and Kalimantan, the leading producers of oil palm both within Indonesia and globally: (1) for the period 2012–2015, did RSPO-certified concessions have a lower density of fire detections, fire ignitions, or 'escaped' fires compared with those concessions that are not certified? and (2) did this pattern change with increasing likelihood of fires in concessions located on peatland and in dry years? These questions are particularly critical in fuel-rich peatlands, of which approximately 46% of the area was designated as oil palm concession as of 2010. We conducted propensity scoring to balance covariate distributions between certified and non-certified concessions, and we compare the density of fires in certified and non-certified concessions using Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests based on moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer Active Fire Detections from 2012–2015 clustered into unique fire events. We find that fire activity is significantly lower on RSPO certified concessions than non-RSPO certified concessions when the likelihood of fire is low (i.e., on non-peatlands in wetter years), but not when the likelihood of fire is high (i.e., on non-peatlands in dry years or on peatlands). Our results provide evidence that RSPO has the potential to reduce fires, though it is currently only effective when fire likelihood is relatively low. These results imply that, in order for this mechanism to reduce fire, additional strategies will be needed to control fires in oil palm plantations in dry years and on peatlands

Evaluation, contrôle et prévention du risque de transmission du virus influenza aviaire à l'homme

Since mid-december 2003, an epizootic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (type A, sub-type H5N1) occurs in eastern and south-eastern Asia. This epizootic is historically unprecedented in its virulence, geographical spread, and economic consequences for the agricultural sector. Implications for human health were registered in Vietnam and in Thailand. This paper summarizes the current knowledge about the risk evaluation of the transmission of avian influenza virus to humans. The current asian epizootic has highlighted the key role of global health information systems and also the need for exhaustive notification of human and animal cases. It reinforces the concept of veterinary public health

Biophysical and Socioeconomic Factors Associated with Forest Transitions at Multiple Spatial and Temporal Scales

Forest transitions (FT) occur when socioeconomic development leads to a shift from net deforestation to reforestation; these dynamics have been observed in multiple countries across the globe, including the island of Puerto Rico in the Caribbean. Starting in the 1950s, Puerto Rico transitioned from an agrarian to a manufacturing and service economy reliant on food imports, leading to extensive reforestation. In recent years, however, net reforestation has leveled off. Here we examine the drivers of forest transition in Puerto Rico from 1977 to 2000 at two subnational, nested spatial scales (municipality and barrio) and over two time periods (1977-1991 and 1991-2000). This study builds on previous work by considering the social and biophysical factors that influence both reforestation and deforestation at multiple spatial and temporal scales. By doing so within one analysis, this study offers a comprehensive understanding of the relative importance of various social and biophysical factors for forest transitions and the scales at which they are manifest. Biophysical factors considered in these analyses included slope, soil quality, and land-cover in the surrounding landscape. We also considered per capita income, population density, and the extent of protected areas as potential factors associated with forest change. Our results show that, in the 1977-1991 period, biophysical factors that exhibit variation at municipality scales (~100 km²) were more important predictors of forest change than socioeconomic factors. In this period, forest dynamics were driven primarily by abandonment of less productive, steep agricultural land in the western, central part of the island. These factors had less predictive power at the smaller barrio scale (~10 km²) relative to the larger municipality scale during this time period. The relative importance of socioeconomic variables for deforestation, however, increased over time as development pressures on available land increased. From 1991-2000, changes in forest cover reflected influences from multiple factors, including increasing population densities, land development pressure from suburbanization, and the presence of protected areas. In contrast to the 1977-1991 period, drivers of deforestation and reforestation over this second interval were similar for the two spatial scales of analyses. Generally, our results suggest that although broader socioeconomic changes in a given region may drive the demand for land, biophysical factors ultimately mediate where development occurs. Although economic development may initially result in reforestation due to rural to urban migration and the abandonment of agricultural lands, increased economic development may lead to deforestation through increased suburbanization pressures

El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in southeast Asia

Emissions from landscape fires affect both climate and air quality. Here, we combine satellite-derived fire estimates and atmospheric modelling to quantify health effects from fire emissions in southeast Asia from 1997 to 2006. This region has large interannual variability in fire activity owing to coupling between El Niño-induced droughts and anthropogenic land-use change. We show that during strong El Niño years, fires contribute up to 200 μg m−3 and 50 ppb in annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone surface concentrations near fire sources, respectively. This corresponds to a fire contribution of 200 additional days per year that exceed the World Health Organization 50 μg m−3 24-hr PM2.5 interim target and an estimated 10,800 (6,800–14,300)-person (~ 2%) annual increase in regional adult cardiovascular mortality. Our results indicate that reducing regional deforestation and degradation fires would improve public health along with widely established benefits from reducing carbon emissions, preserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem services

Quantifying the influence of agricultural fires in northwest India on urban air pollution in Delhi, India

Since at least the 1980s, many farmers in northwest India have switched to mechanized combine harvesting to boost efficiency. This harvesting technique leaves abundant crop residue on the fields, which farmers typically burn to prepare their fields for subsequent planting. A key question is to what extent the large quantity of smoke emitted by these fires contributes to the already severe pollution in Delhi and across other parts of the heavily populated Indo-Gangetic Plain located downwind of the fires. Using a combination of observed and modeled variables, including surface measurements of PM2.5, we quantify the magnitude of the influence of agricultural fire emissions on surface air pollution in Delhi. With surface measurements, we first derive the signal of regional PM2.5 enhancements (i.e. the pollution above an anthropogenic baseline) during each post-monsoon burning season for 2012–2016. We next use the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport model (STILT) to simulate surface PM2.5 using five fire emission inventories. We reproduce up to 25% of the weekly variability in total observed PM2.5 using STILT. Depending on year and emission inventory, our method attributes 7.0%–78% of the maximum observed PM2.5 enhancements in Delhi to fires. The large range in these attribution estimates points to the uncertainties in fire emission parameterizations, especially in regions where thick smoke may interfere with hotspots of fire radiative power. Although our model can generally reproduce the largest PM2.5 enhancements in Delhi air quality for 1–3 consecutive days each fire season, it fails to capture many smaller daily enhancements, which we attribute to the challenge of detecting small fires in the satellite retrieval. By quantifying the influence of upwind agricultural fire emissions on Delhi air pollution, our work underscores the potential health benefits of changes in farming practices to reduce fires

The 2015 drought in Washington State: a harbinger of things to come?

Washington State experienced widespread drought in 2015 and the largest burned area in the observational record, attributable in part to exceptionally low winter snow accumulation and high summer temperatures. We examine 2015 drought severity in the Cascade and Olympic mountains relative to the historical climatology (1950-present) and future climate projections (mid-21st century) for a mid-range global greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Although winter precipitation was near normal, the regional winter temperature anomaly was +2.1 degrees C (+2.0 sigma) in 2015, consistent with projections of a +2.3 degrees C (+2.2 sigma temperature change and near normal precipitation in the future, relative to the climatology. April 1 snow water equivalent in 2015, -325 mm (-1.5..), and the future, -252 mm (-1.1 sigma), were substantially lower than the climatology. Wildfire potential, as indicated by dead fuel moisture content, was higher in 2015 than mid-21st century mean projections. In contrast to most historical droughts, which have been driven by precipitation deficits, our results suggest that 2015 is a useful analog of typical conditions in the Pacific Northwest by the mid-21st century