Feasibility of eliminating visceral leishmaniasis from the Indian subcontinent: explorations with a set of deterministic age-structured transmission models

textabstractBackground: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease transmitted by sandflies. On the Indian subcontinent (ISC), VL is targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2017. In the context of VL, the elimination target is defined as an annual VL incidence of <1 per 10,000 capita at (sub-)district level. Interventions focus on vector control, surveillance and on diagnosing and treating VL cases. Many endemic areas have not yet achieved optimal control due to logistical, biological as well as technical challenges. We used mathematical modelling to quantify VL transmission dynamics and predict the feasibility of achieving the VL elimination target with current control strategies under varying assumptions about the reservoir of infection in humans. Methods: We developed three deterministic age-structured transmission models with different main reservoirs of infection in humans: asymptomatic infections (model 1), reactivation of infection after initial infection (model 2), and post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL; model 3). For each model, we defined four sub-variants based on different assumptions about the duration of immunity and age-patterns in exposure to sandflies. All 12 model sub-variants were fitted to data from the KalaNet study in Bihar (India) and Nepal, and the best sub-variant was selected per model. Predictions were made for optimal and sub-optimal indoor residual spraying (IRS) effectiveness for three different levels of VL endemicity. Results: Structurally different models explained the KalaNet data equally well. However, the predicted impact of IRS varied substantially between models, such that a conclusion about reaching the VL elimination targets for the ISC heavily depends on assumptions about the main reservoir of infection in humans: asymptomatic cases, recovered (immune) individuals that reactivate, or PKDL cases. Conclusions: Available data on the impact of IRS so far suggest one model is probably closest to reality (model 1). According to this model, elimination of VL (incidence of <1 per 10,000) by 2017 is only feasible in low and medium endemic settings with optimal IRS. In highly endemic settings and settings with sub-optimal IRS, additional interventions will be required

О некоторых аспектах проблемы формирования рынка труда в Украине и в Крыму

В статье дан анализ современного состояния рынка труда в Украине и в Крыму, выявлены причины и особенности безработицы, определены задачи государства в этой связи, предложены мероприятия по их разрешению.Про деякі аспекти проблеми формування ринку праці в Україні і в Криму. У статті даний аналіз сучасного стану ринку праці в Україні й у Криму, виявлено причини й особливості безробіття, визначені завдання держави в цьому зв'язку, запропоновані заходи щодо їхнього вирішення.In article the analysis of a modern condition of a labour market in Ukraine and in Crimea is given, the reasons and features of unemployment are revealed, problems of the state in this connection are determined, actions under their sanction are offered

Visceral leishmaniasis: Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and drivers underlying the hotspots in Muzaffarpur, Bihar, India

Background: Despite the overall decrease in visceral leishmaniasis (VL) incidence on the Indian subcontinent, there remain spatiotemporal clusters or ‘hotspots’ of new cases. The characteristics of these hotspots, underlying transmission dynamics, and their importance for shaping control strategies are not yet fully understood and are investigated in this study for a VL endemic area of ~100,000 inhabitants in Bihar, India between 2007–2015. Methodology/Principal findings VL incidence (cases/10,000/year) dropped from 12.3 in 2007 to 0.9 in 2015, which is just below the World Health Organizations’ threshold for elimination as a public health problem. Clustering of VL was assessed between subvillages (hamlets), using multiple geospatial and (spatio)temporal autocorrelation and hotspot analyses. One to three hotspots were identified each year, often persisting for 1–5 successive years with a modal radius of ~500m. The relative risk of having VL was 5–86 times higher for inhabitants of hotspots, compared to those living outside hotspots. Hotspots harbour significantly more households from the two lowest asset quintiles (as proxy for socio-economic status). Overall, children and young adelescents (5–14 years) have the highest risk for VL, but within hotspots and at the start of outbreaks, older age groups (35+ years) show a comparable high risk. Conclusions/Significance: This study demonstrates significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in VL incidence at subdistrict level. The association between poverty and hotspots confirms that VL is a disease of ‘the poorest of the poor’ and age patterns suggest a potential role of waning immunity as underlying driver of hotspots. The recommended insecticide spraying radius of 500m around detected VL cases corresponds to the modal hotspot radius found in this study. Additional data on immunity and asymptomatic infection, and the development of spatiotemporally explicit transmission models that simulate hotspot dynamics and predict the impact of interventions at the smaller geographical scale will be crucial tools in sustaining elimination

Policy Recommendations From Transmission Modeling for the Elimination of Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Indian Subcontinent.

Background: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been targeted by the World Health Organization (WHO) and 5 countries in the Indian subcontinent for elimination as a public health problem. To achieve this target, the WHO has developed guidelines consisting of 4 phases of different levels of interventions, based on vector control through indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) and active case detection (ACD). Mathematical transmission models of VL are increasingly used for planning and assessing the efficacy of interventions and evaluating the intensity and timescale required to achieve the elimination target. Methods: This paper draws together the key policy-relevant conclusions from recent transmission modeling of VL, and presents new predictions for VL incidence under the interventions recommended by the WHO using the latest transmission models. Results: The model predictions suggest that the current WHO guidelines should be sufficient to reach the elimination target in areas that had medium VL endemicities (up to 5 VL cases per 10000 population per year) prior to the start of interventions. However, additional interventions, such as extending the WHO attack phase (intensive IRS and ACD), may be required to bring forward elimination in regions with high precontrol endemicities, depending on the relative infectiousness of different disease stages. Conclusions: The potential hurdle that asymptomatic and, in particular, post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis cases may pose to reaching and sustaining the target needs to be addressed. As VL incidence decreases, the pool of immunologically naive individuals will grow, creating the potential for new outbreaks

Policy Recommendations From Transmission Modeling for the Elimination of Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Indian Subcontinent.

Background: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been targeted by the World Health Organization (WHO) and 5 countries in the Indian subcontinent for elimination as a public health problem. To achieve this target, the WHO has developed guidelines consisting of 4 phases of different levels of interventions, based on vector control through indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) and active case detection (ACD). Mathematical transmission models of VL are increasingly used for planning and assessing the efficacy of interventions and evaluating the intensity and timescale required to achieve the elimination target. Methods: This paper draws together the key policy-relevant conclusions from recent transmission modeling of VL, and presents new predictions for VL incidence under the interventions recommended by the WHO using the latest transmission models. Results: The model predictions suggest that the current WHO guidelines should be sufficient to reach the elimination target in areas that had medium VL endemicities (up to 5 VL cases per 10000 population per year) prior to the start of interventions. However, additional interventions, such as extending the WHO attack phase (intensive IRS and ACD), may be required to bring forward elimination in regions with high precontrol endemicities, depending on the relative infectiousness of different disease stages. Conclusions: The potential hurdle that asymptomatic and, in particular, post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis cases may pose to reaching and sustaining the target needs to be addressed. As VL incidence decreases, the pool of immunologically naive individuals will grow, creating the potential for new outbreaks

A CATT Negative Result after Treatment for Human African Trypanosomiasis Is No Indication for Cure

The 2 year follow-up period required after treatment of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) patients is a major challenge for patients and control programmes alike. The patient should return every 6 months for lumbar puncture and cerebrospinal fluid examination since, so far, no markers for cure have been identified in blood. The Card Agglutination Test for Trypanosomiasis (CATT) is a simple, rapid test for trypanosome-specific antibody detection in blood that is extensively used in endemic areas to screen for HAT. We examined the value of a normalising CATT as a marker for treatment outcome. We observed that CATT titres decreased after treatment both in patients who experienced treatment failure as well as in cured patients. We conclude that CATT, though a good screening test, is unreliable for monitoring treatment outcome. We also showed that the sensitivity of CATT in relapse cases was as low as 78%, and as a consequence some relapse cases might be missed in screening programs if they have no clinical signs yet

Long-lasting Insecticidal Nets to Prevent Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Indian Subcontinent; Methodological Lessons Learned from a Cluster Randomised Controlled Trial

In a recent paper, Nagpal et al. voiced concerns about the limited or biased use of scientific evidence to support public health interventions to control neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), also known as kala-azar, is one of the major NTDs and does not escape this problem. Transmission is vector-borne and the Indian subcontinent is the region reporting most of the VL cases worldwide. In this region, the main causative species is Leishmania donovani and Phlebotomus argentipes is the vector. Transmission is considered anthroponotic and peridomestic—occurring at night when female sand flies bite people sleeping inside their house. The World Health Organization and the governments of India, Nepal, and Bangladesh set out in 2005 to eliminate VL from the region by 2015 through a combination of early treatment of cases and vector control. However, while recent advances in diagnostic tools and drugs have significantly improved case management strategies, the available vector control tools against P. argentipes remain limited. The elimination initiative promotes the use of indoor residual spraying (IRS) of households and cattle sheds to reduce vector density, but the evidence underpinning the effectiveness of IRS in this region is scanty. Historical observations show that L. donovani transmission declined concomitantly with dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) spraying during the 1950s–60s to eradicate malaria. In the aftermath of this malaria eradication campaign, very few VL cases were observed in endemic regions until the mid-seventies, when there was resurgence of a VL epidemic in India. To date, there are no randomized trials showing the effect of IRS on the incidence of clinical VL, though some studies showed a reduction in vector density. When the VL elimination initiative was launched in 2005, there were no clear alternatives for IRS as a vector control strategy. Insecticide treated nets (ITNs) were proposed as an alternative or complement to IRS on the basis of analogy arguments regarding their given efficacy against malaria or on data from observational studies suggesting ITNs reduce the risk of VL; but as for IRS, there were no randomized trials evaluating the effect of ITNs on L. donovani transmission. In this context, a number of field studies were conducted in the Indian subcontinent in the past decade to evaluate the effectiveness and impact of ITNs and other vector control tools on VL. Most of these studies have been reviewed in detail in two recent papers. The only two studies evaluating the impact of vector control interventions on clinical outcomes found conflicting results. First, the KALANET project, a cluster randomised controlled trial (CRT) in India and Nepal, showed that mass-distribution of ITNs did not reduce the risk of L. donovani infection or clinical VL. Then, an intervention trial in Bangladesh suggested that widespread bed net impregnation with slow-release insecticide may reduce the frequency of VL. Technical (e.g., type of nets and insecticides, lack of replicas and randomisation in Bangladesh) and biological factors (e.g., insecticide susceptibility and sand fly behaviour) may explain the different results observed. This apparent contradiction raises the question about the role that ITN may play in controlling VL in the Indian subcontinent but has also triggered a lot of discussion on methodology and evidence levels required when evaluating vector control tools for VL. In this paper, we would like to summarise the lessons learned from the KALANET CRT in terms of methodology to inform the generation of future evidence and discuss interpretation of findings against this background

Interferon-Gamma Release Assay (Modified QuantiFERON) as a Potential Marker of Infection for Leishmania donovani, a Proof of Concept Study

Visceral leishmaniasis is caused by a parasite of the Leishmania species, but infection does not always lead to overt clinical disease. To detect infection, the Montenegro test or Leishmanin Skin Test (LST) is used along with serological markers. The LST is a test of the delayed-type hypersensitivity response read 48–72 hours after intradermal injection of leishmanin antigen. LST has many drawbacks, as complex administration and reading, boosting of anamnestic immune responses and difficult sourcing of GMP-compliant product and alternative tools for epidemiological research are badly needed. We evaluated whether a Interferon-γ Release Assay based on the QuantiFERON-TB test format, which was approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as a test for detecting latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, could become an in vitro diagnostic aid for the measurement of cell-mediated immune reactivity against L.donovani. We obtained good results with one of five of the antigens we evaluated and confirm the potential of this assay

Of cattle, sand flies and men : a systematic review of risk factor analyses for South Asian visceral leishmaniasis and implications for elimination

Background: Studies performed over the past decade have identified fairly consistent epidemiological patterns of risk factors for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent. Methods and Principal Findings: To inform the current regional VL elimination effort and identify key gaps in knowledge, we performed a systematic review of the literature, with a special emphasis on data regarding the role of cattle because primary risk factor studies have yielded apparently contradictory results. Because humans form the sole infection reservoir, clustering of kala-azar cases is a prominent epidemiological feature, both at the household level and on a larger scale. Subclinical infection also tends to show clustering around kala-azar cases. Within villages, areas become saturated over a period of several years; kala-azar incidence then decreases while neighboring areas see increases. More recently, post kalaazar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) cases have followed kala-azar peaks. Mud walls, palpable dampness in houses, and peridomestic vegetation may increase infection risk through enhanced density and prolonged survival of the sand fly vector. Bed net use, sleeping on a cot and indoor residual spraying are generally associated with decreased risk. Poor micronutrient status increases the risk of progression to kala-azar. The presence of cattle is associated with increased risk in some studies and decreased risk in others, reflecting the complexity of the effect of bovines on sand fly abundance, aggregation, feeding behavior and leishmanial infection rates. Poverty is an overarching theme, interacting with individual risk factors on multiple levels. Conclusions: Carefully designed demonstration projects, taking into account the complex web of interconnected risk factors, are needed to provide direct proof of principle for elimination and to identify the most effective maintenance activities to prevent a rapid resurgence when interventions are scaled back. More effective, short-course treatment regimens for PKDL are urgently needed to enable the elimination initiative to succeed

Heterogeneities in leishmania infantum infection : using skin parasite burdens to identify highly infectious dogs

Background: The relationships between heterogeneities in host infection and infectiousness (transmission to arthropod vectors) can provide important insights for disease management. Here, we quantify heterogeneities in Leishmania infantum parasite numbers in reservoir and non-reservoir host populations, and relate this to their infectiousness during natural infection. Tissue parasite number was evaluated as a potential surrogate marker of host transmission potential. Methods: Parasite numbers were measured by qPCR in bone marrow and ear skin biopsies of 82 dogs and 34 crab-eating foxes collected during a longitudinal study in Amazon Brazil, for which previous data was available on infectiousness (by xenodiagnosis) and severity of infection. Results: Parasite numbers were highly aggregated both between samples and between individuals. In dogs, total parasite abundance and relative numbers in ear skin compared to bone marrow increased with the duration and severity of infection. Infectiousness to the sandfly vector was associated with high parasite numbers; parasite number in skin was the best predictor of being infectious. Crab-eating foxes, which typically present asymptomatic infection and are non-infectious, had parasite numbers comparable to those of non-infectious dogs. Conclusions: Skin parasite number provides an indirect marker of infectiousness, and could allow targeted control particularly of highly infectious dogs