A Distributed Approach to Accounting for Carbon in Wood Product

With an evolving political environment of commitments to limit emissions of greenhouse gases, and of markets to trade in emissions permits, there is growing scientific, political, and economic need to accurately evaluate carbon (C) stocks and flows—especially those related to human activities. One component of the global carbon cycle that has been contentious is the stock of carbon that is physically held in harvested wood products. The carbon stored in wood products has been sometimes overlooked, but the amount of carbon contained in wood products is not trivial, it is increasing with time, and it is significant to some Parties. This paper is concerned with accurate treatment of harvested wood products in inventories of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. The methodologies outlined demonstrate a flexible way to expand current methods beyond the assumption of a simple, first-order decay to include the use of more accurate and detailed data while retaining the simplicity of simple formulas. The paper demonstrates that a more accurate representation of decay time can have significant economic implications in a system where emissions are taxed or emissions permits are traded. The method can be easily applied using only data on annual production of wood products and two parameters to characterize their expected lifetime. These methods are not specific to wood products but can be applied to long-lived, carbon-containing products from sources other than wood, e.g. long-lived petrochemical products. A single unifying approach that is both simple and flexible has the potential to be both more accurate in its results, more efficient in its implementation, and economically important to some Parties

Managing the Cost of Emissions for Durable, Carbon-Containing Products

We recognize that carbon-containing products do not decay and release CO2 to the atmosphere instantaneously, but release that carbon over extended periods of time. For an initial production of a stock of carbon-containing product, we can treat the release as a probability distribution covering the time over which that release occurs. The probability distribution that models the carbon release predicts the amount of carbon that is released as a function of time. The use of a probability distribution in accounting for the release of carbon to the atmosphere realizes a fundamental shift from the idea that all carbon-containing products contribute to a single pool that decays in proportion to the size of the stock. Viewing the release of carbon as a continuous probabilistic process introduces some theoretical opportunities not available in the former paradigm by taking advantage of other fields where the use of probability distributions has been prevalent for many decades. In particular, theories developed in the life insurance industry can guide the development of pricing and payment structures for dealing with the costs associated with the oxidation and release of carbon. These costs can arise from a number of proposed policies (cap and trade, carbon tax, social cost of carbon, etc), but in the end they all result in there being a cost to releasing carbon to the atmosphere. If there is a cost to the emitter for CO2 emissions, payment for that cost will depend on both when the emissions actually occur and how payment is made. Here we outline some of the pricing and payment structures that are possible which result from analogous theories in the life insurance industry. This development not only provides useful constructs for valuing sequestered carbon, but highlights additional motivations for employing a probability distribution approach to unify accounting methodologies for stocks of carbon containing products

Valuing Uncertainty Part II: The Impact of Risk Charges in Dealing with Time Issues in Lifecycle Analysis and GHG Accounting

We have greater certainty for what has happened in the past than for what will happen in the future. Uncertainty on the impact and value of emissions can be very large. Given all of the elements of uncertainty, we are challenged to set global targets for limiting the environmental impact of emissions, to distribute those targets among the many parties responsible for emissions, to evaluate the trajectories toward targets, to understand the risk involved in not meeting targets, to motivate the collective efforts and burden sharing or trading, and to verify that targets have been achieved. We need a clear and consistent framework for dealing with uncertainty and in this article we use the notion of a risk charge on uncertainty to investigate issues of time in GHG and lifecycle analysis accounting. Results: We address critical issues of short-term storage, time horizons, permanence, trading agreements and model error, and explain the consequences of a risk charge on the associated uncertainties. Conclusions: We demonstrate here how the framework we have built naturally extends to address most types of issues that might arise in placing a value on the uncertainty of GHG emissions, and in quantifying management trade-offs and policy strategies for mitigation and adaptation of climate change

Uncertainty in Gridded CO2 Emissions Estimates

We are interested in the spatial distribution of fossil-fuel-related emissions of CO2 for both geochemical and geopolitical reasons, but it is important to understand the uncertainty that exists in spatially explicit emissions estimates. Working from one of the widely used gridded data sets of CO2 emissions, we examine the elements of uncertainty, focusing on gridded data for the United States at the scale of 1’ latitude by 1’ longitude. Uncertainty is introduced in the magnitude of total United States emissions, the magnitude and location of large point sources, the magnitude and distribution of non-point sources, and from the use of proxy data to characterize emissions. For the United States, we develop estimates of the contribution of each component of uncertainty. At 1 resolution, in most grid cells, the largest contribution to uncertainty comes from how well the distribution of the proxy (in this case population density) represents the distribution of emissions. In other grid cells, the magnitude and location of large point sources make the major contribution to uncertainty. Uncertainty in population density can be important where a large gradient in population density occurs near a grid cell boundary. Uncertainty is strongly scale-dependent with uncertainty increasing as grid size decreases. Uncertainty for our data set with 1 grid cells for the United States is typically on the order of ±150%, but this is perhaps not excessive in a data set where emissions per grid cell vary over 8 orders of magnitude

The role of CO2 emissions from large point sources in emissions totals, responsibility, and policy

A large fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions comes from large point sources such as power plants, petroleum refineries, and large industrial facilities. The existence and locations of these facilities depend on a variety of factors that include the distribution of natural resources and the economy of scale of operating large facilities. These large facilities provide goods and/or services well beyond the political jurisdiction in which they reside and their emissions to the global atmosphere are not a simple reflection of the consumption of goods and services within the geographic region in which they reside. And yet many accounting schemes do not distinguish between emissions for local consumption and emissions for export. Looking at the geographic distribution of large point sources of CO2 emissions in theU.S. suggests that per capita emissions from a geographic area are not necessarily a good indication of the mitigation responsibility of the residents. The design of effective and fair mitigation strategies needs to consider that emissions embodied in the products of large facilities, such as electric power and refined petroleum products, are often transferred across accounting boundaries; e.g. the CO2 emissions occur in one jurisdiction even though the electricity is used in another. We close with a short discussion of how two sub-national emissions trading schemes in the U.S. have confronted the issue of embodied emissions crossing their jurisdictional boundaries

Computational Cell Biology: An Introduction To Computer Modeling In Molecular Cell Biology (website): https://web.archive.org/web/20041202234524/http://www.compcell.appstate.edu/

This web site is a support site for the new text from Springer-Verlag. The text begins by slowing building up to basic compartmental model of cells. It covers ion channels, transporters, chemical interactions, and shows how to integrate them into a full model of the cell. With this done, the book then progress to more specialized topics such as spatial modeling, cell to cell communication, and molecular motors

Computational Cell Biology: An Introduction To Computer Modeling In Molecular Cell Biology (website): https://web.archive.org/web/20081227034732/http://www.computationalcellbiology.net/

This textbook was conceived of and begun by Professor Joel Keizer based on his many years of teaching and research together with his colleagues. The project was expanded and completed by his students and friends after his untimely death in 1999. Contributors include Timothy Elston, Bard Ermentrout, Chris Fall, James Keener, Yue- Xian Li, Eric Marland, Alexander Mogilner, Béla Novák, George Oster, John Pearson, John Rinzel, Arthur Sherman, Greg Smith, John Tyson, John Wagner and Hongyun Wang. This web site is a support site for the new text from Springer-Verlag. The text begins by slowly building up to basic compartmental models of cells. It covers ion channels, transporters, chemical interactions, and shows how to integrate them into a full model of the cell. With this done, the book then progress to more specialized topics such as spatial modeling, cell to cell communication, and molecular motors

Carbon Accounting: Issues Of Scale

Accounting for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to the atmosphere is being widely implemented at many spatial, temporal, and organizational scales—country or city, year or day, corporation or consumer—and we pose the question, “What are the useful scales of carbon accounting and what issues does scale bring?” Financial accounting is typically at the level of an entity, defined in terms of ownership, management control, or responsibility. Carbon accounting raises similar accounting concerns, but has different issues of scale

A Relationship Between Orthogonal Regression And The Coefficient Of Determination Under Rotation Of Data Sets: Supplemental Materials

Supplemental materials (Figure 3 data & Rotation R Code for Revision1) for the publication, "A Relationship Between Orthogonal Regression and the Coefficient of Determination Under Rotation of Data Sets," by Gregory S. Rhoads, Eric S. Marland, Jose A. Sanqui, Michael J. Bossé, and W. Bauldry

Future changes in climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling simulated for a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario until year 4000 AD

A new model of global climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling, including a fully coupled carbon cycle, is presented and evaluated. The model is consistent with multiple observational data sets from the past 50 years as well as with the observed warming of global surface air and sea temperatures during the last 150 years. It is applied to a simulation of the coming two millennia following a business-as-usual scenario of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (SRES A2 until year 2100 and subsequent linear decrease to zero until year 2300, corresponding to a total release of 5100 GtC). Atmospheric CO2 increases to a peak of more than 2000 ppmv near year 2300 (that is an airborne fraction of 72% of the emissions) followed by a gradual decline to ∼1700 ppmv at year 4000 (airborne fraction of 56%). Forty-four percent of the additional atmospheric CO2 at year 4000 is due to positive carbon cycle–climate feedbacks. Global surface air warms by ∼10°C, sea ice melts back to 10% of its current area, and the circulation of the abyssal ocean collapses. Subsurface oxygen concentrations decrease, tripling the volume of suboxic water and quadrupling the global water column denitrification. We estimate 60 ppb increase in atmospheric N2O concentrations owing to doubling of its oceanic production, leading to a weak positive feedback and contributing about 0.24°C warming at year 4000. Global ocean primary production almost doubles by year 4000. Planktonic biomass increases at high latitudes and in the subtropics whereas it decreases at midlatitudes and in the tropics. In our model, which does not account for possible direct impacts of acidification on ocean biology, production of calcium carbonate in the surface ocean doubles, further increasing surface ocean and atmospheric pCO2. This represents a new positive feedback mechanism and leads to a strengthening of the positive interaction between climate change and the carbon cycle on a multicentennial to millennial timescale. Changes in ocean biology become important for the ocean carbon uptake after year 2600, and at year 4000 they account for 320 ppmv or 22% of the atmospheric CO2 increase since the preindustrial era