Stochastic resonance in the recovery of signal from agent price expectations

Contributions that noise can make to the objective of detecting signal in agent expectations for price in financial markets are examined. Although contrary to most assumptions on exogenous noise in financial markets as increasing both risk and uncertainty in the detection of signal, a basis for the contribution that noise can have to agent objectives in signal detection through stochastic resonance (SR) is well-documented across disciplines. After reviewing foundations for the micro-processing of expectations, a multi-component model of networked agents that includes a component of bounded rational processing and a component that has been cited as generating “herding” behavior in financial markets is offered. The signal-to-noise ratios in the proposed models provide a basis to investigate SR in an application to financial markets. Results with both deterministic and stochastic forms of the proposed model support SR as a process in which randomness can contribute to the recovery of signal in agent expectation. Additionally, predictive models that indicate the sensitivity of the occurrence of SR to the parameters of the models of agent expectations were estimated and cross-validated. The discriminative ability of the models is reported through Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUROC) methodology. These results extend the cross-discipline demonstrations of SR to models of price in financial markets.</p

Integrated testing strategies can be optimal for chemical risk classification.

There is an urgent need to refine strategies for testing the safety of chemical compounds. This need arises both from the financial and ethical costs of animal tests, but also from the opportunities presented by new in-vitro and in-silico alternatives. Here we explore the mathematical theory underpinning the formulation of optimal testing strategies in toxicology. We show how the costs and imprecisions of the various tests, and the variability in exposures and responses of individuals, can be assembled rationally to form a Markov Decision Problem. We compute the corresponding optimal policies using well developed theory based on Dynamic Programming, thereby identifying and overcoming some methodological and logical inconsistencies which may exist in the current toxicological testing. By illustrating our methods for two simple but readily generalisable examples we show how so-called integrated testing strategies, where information of different precisions from different sources is combined and where different initial test outcomes lead to different sets of future tests, can arise naturally as optimal policies

Is intraprocedural intravenous aspirin safe for patients who require emergent extracranial stenting during mechanical thrombectomy?

Background: Intraoperative antiplatelet therapy is recommended for emergent stenting during mechanical thrombectomy (MT). Most patients undergoing MT are also given thrombolysis. Antiplatelet agents are contraindicated within 24 hours of thrombolysis. We evaluated outcomes and complications of patients stented with and without intravenous aspirin during MT. Methods: All patients who underwent emergent extracranial stenting during MT at the Royal Stoke University Hospital, UK between 2010 and 2020, were included. Patients were thrombolysed before MT, unless contraindicated. Aspirin 500 mg intravenously was given intraoperatively at the discretion of the operator. Symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage (sICH) and the National Institutes for Health Stroke Scale score (NIHSS) were recorded at 7 days, and mortality and functional recovery (modified Rankin Scale: mRS ≤2) at 90 days. Results: Out of 565 patients treated by MT 102 patients (median age 67 IQR 57-72 years, baseline median NIHSS 18 IQR 13-23, 76 (75%) thrombolysed) had a stent placed. Of these 49 (48%) were given aspirin and 53 (52%) were not. Patients treated with aspirin had greater NIHSS improvement (median 8 IQR 1-16 vs median 3 IQR -9-8 points, p=0.003), but there were no significant differences in sICH (2/49 (4%) vs 9/53 (17%)), mRS ≤2 (25/49 (51%) vs 19/53 (36%)) and mortality (10/49 (20%) vs 12/53 (23%)) with and without aspirin. NIHSS improvement (median 12 IQR 4-18 vs median 7 IQR -7-10, p=0.01) was greater, and mortality was lower (4/33 (12%) vs 6/15 (40%), p=0.05) when aspirin was combined with thrombolysis, than for aspirin alone, with no increase in bleeding. Conclusion: Our findings based on registry data derived from routine clinical care suggest that intraprocedural intravenous aspirin in patients undergoing emergent stenting during MT does not increase sICH and is associated with good clinical outcomes, even when combined with intravenous thrombolysis.</p