Estimating Price Paths for Residential Real Estate

Several approaches have been used to estimate and adjust for price movements in residential real estate; however, weaknesses remain in current systems. This paper incorporates a different way of measuring temporal price patterns. The method involves a time series model, an approach not previously employed when estimating real estate price movements. Using illustrative data, it is indicated that the proposed technique is likely more accurate than current procedures. The method also represents a significant adaptation of standard time series models. For the task at hand, the new model is arguably preferable to these more standard versions.

A Model for Federal Public Land Surface Rights' Management

The U.S. Forest Service and U.S. Bureau of Land Management control larges tracts of Federal public lands mainly in the western United States. Management goals for lands controlled by these agencies are described as "multiple-use." Some of the lands are forested, mountainous, contain wildlife or possess other scenic and recreational attributes and warrant the federal multiple-use designation; however, a significant portion of the land, especially that under BLM control, contains little scenic, recreation or wildlife value, thus offering very little multiple-use potential and non-pecuniary value. Much of the land not warranting multiple-use potential has never been titled to anyone except the Federal Government (never sold nor homesteaded). Inherent in the management of all Federal lands is a defacto fiduciary responsibility to prudently and efficiently manage these assets. We develop a framework that measures present values of both quantitative and qualitative economic benefits and costs of Federal public lands to assist managers and policy makers in determining future management policy. By applying this framework, Federal public land policymakers may be aided in fulfilling their fiduciary responsibilities.

Valuation of Property Surrounding a Resort Community

This article uses hedonic modeling for valuation of real estate located near Jackson, Wyoming and agricultural property throughout the remainder of Wyoming. The attributes of the hedonic model used to value resort properties are compared with attributes of the model used to value agricultural properties. It is observed that attributes affecting the value of resort property are significantly different from attributes affecting the value of agricultural property. Resort properties, even though classified as agricultural, derive their values from scenic amenities, existence of streams, vegetation and relative location. Alternatively, agricultural lands throughout the remainder of Wyoming derive value from a combination of productive and nonproductive attributes.

Additional Evidence on the Homogeneity of the Value of Government Grazing Leases and Changing Attributes for Ranch Values

Using Wyoming ranch sales from 1979-1983 and 1989-1993, this study investigates how ranch value determining attributes may have changed over this period. The 1979-1983 period is one of political stability and rising prices. In constrast, the 1989-1993 period is one of political uncertainty but stable prices. It is found, during 1989-1993, ranch prices were based more on productivity; whereas, during the earlier period, prices were based more on speculative potential. Also, it is found that government grazing leases were valued differently between time periods, ecological regions, and types of leases. This suggests that the current single-price grazing fee commonly used misprices many leases. Because of the heterogeneity in the value of grazing leases, we recommend a variable-fee form of pricing be adopted.

A Relationship of Trust: Are State ?School Trust Lands? Being Prudently Managed for the Beneficiary?

Every state entering the Union in the United States since 1803 received land grants from the federal government for the support of their public schools. Inherent in this federal grant is the fiduciary duty to prudently and effectively manage trust assets for the beneficiary, their school systems. This paper addresses the question of whether managers of trust lands are meeting their fiduciary responsibilities of ??maximum economic benefit?? for their beneficiaries. Realized market value-based economic returns from grazing lease revenues and capital appreciation for all twenty-three counties in Wyoming are compared with returns that may have been generated from alternative investment policy alternatives. Market values and capital appreciation for school trust lands in Wyoming are estimated from hedonic models formulated from ranch sales data and grazing revenue data.

Impact of Ranch and Market Factors on an Index of Agricultural Holding Period Returns

This study develops nominal and real holding period return indices for operating ranches. The indices contain two components, monthly ranch operating profit and capital appreciation. A regression model that determines the effect of various attributes on total market value is used to estimate capital appreciation, and a second model determines operating profit. The two different ranch data series are compared with United States Long Term Government Bonds, the S&P 500 Index and Small Capitalization Stocks. Both ranch indices show very low correlation with the S&P 500 Index and very low or negative betas. Further, both ranch series have excess actual nominal and real returns when compared to expected returns determined from the Capital Asset Pricing Model.

The Value of Mortgage Assumptions: An Empirical Test

This study provides an empirical test of the two main techniques for calculating the financing premium for assumption financed sales, cash equivalence adjustment (CEA) and financed-fee valuation adjustment (FFVA). The results indicate that both the CEA and FFVA computational techniques overvalue the premium associated with assumption financing. A variation of the empirical test is considered that differentiates this study from previous studies. This variation allows for a test of the hypothesis that the proportion of the financing premium capitalized into the sales price is a function of the loan-to-price ratio. It is concluded that this hypothesis cannot be rejected.

Testing for Vertical Inequity in Property Tax Systems

Models for testing assessor performance have been widely discussed in the literature. Many have been used in practice. The purpose of this study are to evaluate the performance of existing models and to propose two new models. We find that existing models can be used correctly to test for inequity when their functional form is consistent with the pattern of the assessment-sales ratio data. Results from the application of different models show inconsistencies since the appropriate functional form may vary for different data sets. The new models have the ability to emulate the forms of the existing models as well as handle more complex relationships.

The Valuation of Undeveloped Land: A Reconciliation of Methods

This paper investigates the value and proposes a public policy regarding government grazing leases. It is found that federal grazing leases have little impact upon the value of ranches. It is speculated that state leases are valued more highly than federal grazing leases because of the higher level of certainty of future availability and reasonable leasing fees. Based on these findings, this paper recommends a change in the classification of multiple use and possible divesting of much of the BLM lands. In addition, it is recommended that the federal government should set grazing rates no higher than their fair market value and attempt to reduce the uncertainty regarding future availability.

Using multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assist in estimating residential housing values

Considerable literature exists regarding the complexity of the residential real estate appraisal process and the methods employed to determine initial listing prices as estimates of intrinsic market prices. Deviations in residential real estate intrinsic values occur due to a multiplicity of attributes and explanatory factors requiring consideration. We conduct a panel study using a Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) based framework that utilizes the skills and knowledge of a panel of residential real estate professionals (i.e. appraisers and realtors). We demonstrate how cognitive mapping and the Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique (MACBETH) may assist in estimating appropriate offer/sale prices and strengthening current valuation approaches such as using comparables and/or hedonic modeling. The managerial implications of our MCDA-based framework and some avenues for future research are also presented