Drought Early Warning and the Timing of Range Managers’ Drought Response

\u27e connection between drought early warning information and the timing of rangeland managers’ response actions is not well understood. \u27is study investigates U.S. Northern Plains range and livestock managers’ decision-making in response to the 2016 flash drought, by means of a postdrought survey of agricultural landowners and using the Protective Action Decision Model theoretical framework. \u27e study found that managers acted in response to environmental cues, but that their responses were significantly delayed compared to when drought conditions emerged. External warnings did not influence the timing of their decisions, though on-farm monitoring and assessment of conditions did. \u27ough this case focused only on a one-year flash drought characterized by rapid drought intensification, waiting to destock pastures was associated with greater losses to range productivity and health and diversity. \u27is study finds evidence of unrealized potential for drought early warning information to support proactive response and improved outcomes for rangeland management

Whose Ground Truth Is It? Harvesting Lessons from Missouri’s 2018 Bumper Crop of Drought Observations

Drought-related decision-making and policy should go beyond numeric hydrometeorological data to incorporate information on how drought affects people, livelihoods, and ecosystems. The effects of drought are nested within environmental and human systems, and relevant data may not exist in readily accessible form. For example, drought may reduce forage growth, compounded by both late-season freezes and management decisions. An effort to gather crowdsourced drought observations in Missouri in 2018 yielded a much higher number of observations than did previous related efforts. Here we examine 1) the interests, circumstances, history, and recruitment messaging that coincided to produce a high number of reports in a short time; 2) whether and how information from volunteer observers was useful to state decision-makers and to U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) authors; and 3) potential for complementary use of stakeholder and citizen science reports in assessing trustworthiness of volunteer-provided information. State officials and the Cattlemen’s Association made requests for reports, clearly linked to improving the accuracy of the USDM and the related financial benefit. Well-timed requests provided a focus for people’s energy and a reason to invest their time. State officials made use of the dense spatial coverage that observers provided. USDM authors were very cautious about a surge of reports coinciding closely with financial incentives linked to the Livestock Forage Disaster program. An after-the-fact comparison between stakeholder reports and parallel citizen science reports suggests that the two could be complementary, with potential for developing protocols to facilitate real-time use

Gypsy moth in Minnesota: the early years

1 online resource (PDF, 6 pages)This archival publication may not reflect current scientific knowledge or recommendations. Current information available from the University of Minnesota Extension: https://www.extension.umn.edu

Simulating Radiating and Magnetized Flows in Multi-Dimensions with ZEUS-MP

This paper describes ZEUS-MP, a multi-physics, massively parallel, message- passing implementation of the ZEUS code. ZEUS-MP differs significantly from the ZEUS-2D code, the ZEUS-3D code, and an early "version 1" of ZEUS-MP distributed publicly in 1999. ZEUS-MP offers an MHD algorithm better suited for multidimensional flows than the ZEUS-2D module by virtue of modifications to the Method of Characteristics scheme first suggested by Hawley and Stone (1995), and is shown to compare quite favorably to the TVD scheme described by Ryu et. al (1998). ZEUS-MP is the first publicly-available ZEUS code to allow the advection of multiple chemical (or nuclear) species. Radiation hydrodynamic simulations are enabled via an implicit flux-limited radiation diffusion (FLD) module. The hydrodynamic, MHD, and FLD modules may be used in one, two, or three space dimensions. Self gravity may be included either through the assumption of a GM/r potential or a solution of Poisson's equation using one of three linear solver packages (conjugate-gradient, multigrid, and FFT) provided for that purpose. Point-mass potentials are also supported. Because ZEUS-MP is designed for simulations on parallel computing platforms, considerable attention is paid to the parallel performance characteristics of each module. Strong-scaling tests involving pure hydrodynamics (with and without self-gravity), MHD, and RHD are performed in which large problems (256^3 zones) are distributed among as many as 1024 processors of an IBM SP3. Parallel efficiency is a strong function of the amount of communication required between processors in a given algorithm, but all modules are shown to scale well on up to 1024 processors for the chosen fixed problem size.Comment: Accepted for publication in the ApJ Supplement. 42 pages with 29 inlined figures; uses emulateapj.sty. Discussions in sections 2 - 4 improved per referee comments; several figures modified to illustrate grid resolution. ZEUS-MP source code and documentation available from the Laboratory for Computational Astrophysics at http://lca.ucsd.edu/codes/currentcodes/zeusmp2

HST morphologies of local Lyman break galaxy analogs I: Evidence for starbursts triggered by merging

Heckman et al. (2005) used the Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX) UV imaging survey to show that there exists a rare population of nearby compact UV-luminous galaxies (UVLGs) that closely resembles high redshift Lyman break galaxies (LBGs). We present HST images in the UV, optical, and Ha, and resimulate them at the depth and resolution of the GOODS/UDF fields to show that the morphologies of UVLGs are also similar to those of LBGs. Our sample of 8 LBG analogs thus provides detailed insight into the connection between star formation and LBG morphology. Faint tidal features or companions can be seen in all of the rest-frame optical images, suggesting that the starbursts are the result of a merger or interaction. The UV/optical light is dominated by unresolved (~100-300 pc) super starburst regions (SSBs). A detailed comparison with the galaxies Haro 11 and VV 114 at z=0.02 indicates that the SSBs themselves consist of diffuse stars and (super) star clusters. The structural features revealed by the new HST images occur on very small physical scales and are thus not detectable in images of high redshift LBGs, except in a few cases where they are magnified by gravitational lensing. We propose, therefore, that LBGs are mergers of gas-rich, relatively low-mass (~10^10 Msun) systems, and that the mergers trigger the formation of SSBs. If galaxies at high redshifts are dominated by SSBs, then the faint end slope of the luminosity function is predicted to have slope alpha~2. Our results are the most direct confirmation to date of models that predict that the main mode of star formation in the early universe was highly collisional.Comment: 32 pages, 15 figures. ApJ In pres

Socioecological Determinants of Drought Impacts and Coping Strategies for Ranching Operations in the Great Plains

In Great Plains rangelands, drought is a recurring disturbance. Ranchers in this region expect to encounter drought but may not be adequately prepared for it. Efforts to encourage drought preparednesswould benefit froma better understanding of the conditions under which managers make decisions to minimize the impacts of drought.We tested the direct andmoderating roles of the drought hazard and the social-ecological context on drought impacts and response. This study was conducted with ranchers in western and central South Dakota and Nebraska following the drought that began in 2012. We surveyed ranchers regarding the effects of the drought and their responses and used multimodel analysis to explore the relationships among measures of drought preparedness, drought response, and drought impacts. Drought severity was the primary predictor of all impacts, but specific types of impacts were varied depending on the operation’s enterprisemix, resources, and management. The socioecological characteristics of the ranch system predicted drought response actions taken, by either providing the necessary resources and capacity to take action or creating sensitivity in the system that required action to be taken. We conclude with recommendations for learning from current drought experiences in order to better adapt to future drought events

Nicotiana alata defensin chimeras reveal differences in the mechanism of fungal and tumor cell killing and an enhanced antifungal variant

The plant defensin NaD1 is a potent antifungal molecule that also targets tumor cells with a high efficiency. We examined the features of NaD1 that contribute to these two activities by producing a series of chimeras with NaD2, a defensin that has relatively poor activity against fungi and no activity against tumor cells. All plant defensins have a common tertiary structure known as a cysteine-stabilized alpha-beta motif which consists of an alpha helix and a triple-stranded beta-sheet stabilized by four disulfide bonds. The chimeras were produced by replacing loops 1 to 7, the sequences between each of the conserved cysteine residues on NaD1, with the corresponding loops from NaD2. The loop 5 swap replaced the sequence motif (SKILRR) that mediates tight binding with phosphatidylinositol 4,5-bisphosphate [PI(4,5)P-2] and is essential for the potent cytotoxic effect of NaD1 on tumor cells. Consistent with previous reports, there was a strong correlation between PI(4,5)P-2 binding and the tumor cell killing activity of all of the chimeras. However, this correlation did not extend to antifungal activity. Some of the loop swap chimeras were efficient antifungal molecules, even though they bound poorly to PI(4,5)P-2, suggesting that additional mechanisms operate against fungal cells. Unexpectedly, the loop 1B swap chimera was 10 times more active than NaD1 against filamentous fungi. This led to the conclusion that defensin loops have evolved as modular components that combine to make antifungal molecules with variable mechanisms of action and that artificial combinations of loops can increase antifungal activity compared to that of the natural variants

Contextualized analysis of a needs assessment using the Theoretical Domains Framework: a case example in endocrinology

Background: The Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) is a set of 14 domains of behavior change that provide a framework for the critical issues and factors influencing optimal knowledge translation. Considering that a previous study has identified optimal knowledge translation techniques for each TDF domain, it was hypothesized that the TDF could be used to contextualize and interpret findings from a behavioral and educational needs assessment. To illustrate this hypothesis, findings and recommendations drawn from a 2012 national behavioral and educational needs assessment conducted with healthcare providers who treat and manage Growth and Growth Hormone Disorders, will be discussed using the TDF. Methods: This needs assessment utilized a mixed-methods research approach that included a combination of: [a] data sources (Endocrinologists (n:120), Pediatric Endocrinologists (n:53), Pediatricians (n:52)), [b] data collection methods (focus groups, interviews, online survey), [c] analysis methodologies (qualitative - analyzed through thematic analysis, quantitative - analyzed using frequencies, cross-tabulations, and gap analysis). Triangulation was used to generate trustworthy findings on the clinical practice gaps of endocrinologists, pediatric endocrinologists, and general pediatricians in their provision of care to adult patients with adult growth hormone deficiency or acromegaly, or children/teenagers with pediatric growth disorders. The identified gaps were then broken into key underlying determinants, categorized according to the TDF domains, and linked to optimal behavioral change techniques. Results: The needs assessment identified 13 gaps, each with one or more underlying determinant(s). Overall, these determinants were mapped to 9 of the 14 TDF domains. The Beliefs about Consequences domain was identified as a contributing determinant to 7 of the 13 challenges. Five of the gaps could be related to the Skills domain, while three were linked to the Knowledge domain. Conclusions: The TDF categorization of the needs assessment findings allowed recommendation of appropriate behavior change techniques for each underlying determinant, and facilitated communication and understanding of the identified issues to a broader audience. This approach provides a means for health education researchers to categorize gaps and challenges identified through educational needs assessments, and facilitates the application of these findings by educators and knowledge translators, by linking the gaps to recommended behavioral change techniques

Improving ART programme retention and viral suppression are key to maximising impact of treatment as prevention - a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: UNAIDS calls for fewer than 500,000 new HIV infections/year by 2020, with treatment-as-prevention being a key part of their strategy for achieving the target. A better understanding of the contribution to transmission of people at different stages of the care pathway can help focus intervention services at populations where they may have the greatest effect. We investigate this using Uganda as a case study. METHODS: An individual-based HIV/ART model was fitted using history matching. 100 model fits were generated to account for uncertainties in sexual behaviour, HIV epidemiology, and ART coverage up to 2015 in Uganda. A number of different ART scale-up intervention scenarios were simulated between 2016 and 2030. The incidence and proportion of transmission over time from people with primary infection, post-primary ART-naïve infection, and people currently or previously on ART was calculated. RESULTS: In all scenarios, the proportion of transmission by ART-naïve people decreases, from 70% (61%-79%) in 2015 to between 23% (15%-40%) and 47% (35%-61%) in 2030. The proportion of transmission by people on ART increases from 7.8% (3.5%-13%) to between 14% (7.0%-24%) and 38% (21%-55%). The proportion of transmission by ART dropouts increases from 22% (15%-33%) to between 31% (23%-43%) and 56% (43%-70%). CONCLUSIONS: People who are currently or previously on ART are likely to play an increasingly large role in transmission as ART coverage increases in Uganda. Improving retention on ART, and ensuring that people on ART remain virally suppressed, will be key in reducing HIV incidence in Uganda