Incorporating machine learning into sociological model-building

Quantitative sociologists frequently use simple linear functional forms to estimate associations among variables. However, there is little guidance on whether such simple functional forms correctly reflect the underlying data-generating process. Incorrect model specification can lead to misspecification bias, and a lack of scrutiny of functional forms fosters interference of researcher degrees of freedom in sociological work. In this article, I propose a framework that uses flexible machine learning (ML) methods to provide an indication of the fit potential in a dataset containing the exact same covariates as a researcher’s hypothesized model. When this ML-based fit potential strongly outperforms the researcher’s self-hypothesized functional form, it implies a lack of complexity in the latter. Advances in the field of explainable AI, like the increasingly popular Shapley values, can be used to generate understanding into the ML model such that the researcher’s original functional form can be improved accordingly. The proposed framework aims to use ML beyond solely predictive questions, helping sociologists exploit the potential of ML to identify intricate patterns in data to specify better-fitting, interpretable models. I illustrate the proposed framework using a simulation and real-world examples

Learning loss due to school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic

Suspension of face-to-face instruction in schools during the COVID-19 pandemic has led to concerns about consequences for students’ learning. So far, data to study this question have been limited. Here we evaluate the effect of school closures on primary school performance using exceptionally rich data from The Netherlands (n ≈ 350,000). We use the fact that national examinations took place before and after lockdown and compare progress during this period to the same period in the 3 previous years. The Netherlands underwent only a relatively short lockdown (8 wk) and features an equitable system of school funding and the world’s highest rate of broadband access. Still, our results reveal a learning loss of about 3 percentile points or 0.08 standard deviations. The effect is equivalent to one-fifth of a school year, the same period that schools remained closed. Losses are up to 60% larger among students from less-educated homes, confirming worries about the uneven toll of the pandemic on children and families. Investigating mechanisms, we find that most of the effect reflects the cumulative impact of knowledge learned rather than transitory influences on the day of testing. Results remain robust when balancing on the estimated propensity of treatment and using maximum-entropy weights or with fixed-effects specifications that compare students within the same school and family. The findings imply that students made little or no progress while learning from home and suggest losses even larger in countries with weaker infrastructure or longer school closures

Inequalities in healthcare use during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic led to reductions in non-COVID related healthcare use, but little is known whether this burden is shared equally. This study investigates whether reductions in administered care disproportionately affected certain sociodemographic strata, in particular marginalised groups. Using detailed medical claims data from the Dutch universal health care system and rich full population registry data, we predict expected healthcare use based on pre-pandemic trends (2017 – Feb 2020) and compare these expectations with observed healthcare use in 2020 and 2021. Our findings reveal a 10% decline in the number of weekly treated patients in 2020 and a 3% decline in 2021 relative to prior years. These declines are unequally distributed and are more pronounced for individuals below the poverty line, females, older people, and individuals with a migrant background, particularly during the initial wave of COVID-19 hospitalisations and for middle and low urgency procedures. While reductions in non-COVID related healthcare decreased following the initial shock of the pandemic, inequalities persist throughout 2020 and 2021. Our results demonstrate that the pandemic has not only had an unequal toll in terms of the direct health burden of the pandemic, but has also had a differential impact on the use of non-COVID healthcare

Socio-economic factors associated with loss to follow-up among individuals with HCV:A Dutch nationwide cross-sectional study

Background and Aims: The path to hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination is complicated by individuals who become lost to follow-up (LTFU) during care, particularly before receiving effective HCV treatment. We aimed to determine factors contributing to LTFU and whether LTFU is associated with mortality. Methods: In this secondary analysis, we constructed a database including individuals with HCV who were either LTFU (data from the nationwide HCV retrieval project, CELINE) or treated with directly acting antivirals (DAA) (data from Statistics Netherlands) between 2012 and 2019. This database was linked to mortality data from Statistics Netherlands. Determinants associated with being LTFU versus DAA-treated were assessed using logistic regression, and mortality rates were compared between groups using exponential survival models. These analyses were additionally stratified on calendar periods: 2012–2014, 2015–2017 and 2018–2019. Results: About 254 individuals, LTFU and 5547 DAA-treated were included. Being institutionalized (OR = 5.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.29–7.65), household income below the social minimum (OR = 1.96, 95% CI = 1.25–3.06), receiving benefits (OR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.20–2.52) and psychiatric comorbidity (OR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.09–2.10) were associated with LTFU. Mortality rates were significantly higher in individuals LTFU compared to those DAA-treated (2.99 vs. 1.15/100 person-years (PY), p &lt;.0001), while in those DAA-treated, mortality rates slowly increased between 2012–2014 (.22/100PY) and 2018–2019 (2.25/100PY). Conclusion: In the Netherlands, individuals who are incarcerated/institutionalized, with low household income, or with psychiatric comorbidities are prone to being LTFU, which is associated with higher mortality. HCV care needs to be adapted for these vulnerable individuals.</p

Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of Hypertension Screening and Treatment in Adults with Hypertension in Rural Nigeria in the Context of a Health Insurance Program.

BACKGROUND: High blood pressure is a leading risk factor for death and disability in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We evaluated the costs and cost-effectiveness of hypertension care provided within the Kwara State Health Insurance (KSHI) program in rural Nigeria. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to assess the costs and cost-effectiveness of population-level hypertension screening and subsequent antihypertensive treatment for the population at-risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) within the KSHI program. The primary outcome was the incremental cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted in the KSHI scenario compared to no access to hypertension care. We used setting-specific and empirically-collected data to inform the model. We defined two strategies to assess eligibility for antihypertensive treatment based on 1) presence of hypertension grade 1 and 10-year CVD risk of >20%, or grade 2 hypertension irrespective of 10-year CVD risk (hypertension and risk based strategy) and 2) presence of hypertension in combination with a CVD risk of >20% (risk based strategy). We generated 95% confidence intervals around the primary outcome through probabilistic sensitivity analysis. We conducted one-way sensitivity analyses across key model parameters and assessed the sensitivity of our results to the performance of the reference scenario. RESULTS: Screening and treatment for hypertension was potentially cost-effective but the results were sensitive to changes in underlying assumptions with a wide range of uncertainty. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the first and second strategy respectively ranged from US$1,406 to US$ 7,815 and US$732 to US$ 2,959 per DALY averted, depending on the assumptions on risk reduction after treatment and compared to no access to antihypertensive treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Hypertension care within a subsidized private health insurance program may be cost-effective in rural Nigeria and public-private partnerships such as the KSHI program may provide opportunities to finance CVD prevention care in SSA

The relationship between physical and wellness measures and injury in amateur rugby union players

peer-reviewedObjectives To investigate factors associated with injury in amateur male and female rugby union players. Design A prospective cohort study. Setting Amateur rugby clubs in Ireland. Participants Male (n = 113) and female (n = 24) amateur rugby union players from 5 of the top 58 amateur clubs in Ireland. Main outcome measures Pre-season testing included physical tests assessing hamstring flexibility, dorsiflexion range of movement, adductor muscle strength and foot position. Wellness questionnaires assessed sleep quality (PSQI), coping skills (ACSI-28) and support levels (PASS-Q). Players were monitored throughout the season for injury. Results The time-loss match injury incidence rate was 48.2/1000 player hours for males and 45.2/1000 player hours for females. Two risk profiles emerged involving; ‘age + navicular drop + training pitch surface’ (53%) and ‘age + navicular drop + groin strength’ (16%). An inverse relationship between groin strength and groin injury was found for the ‘backs’ players (−0.307, p < 0.05). Using the PSQI, 61% of players had poor sleep quality, however no relationship between the wellness questionnaires and injury was found. Conclusion Two injury risk profiles emerged, associated with subsequent injury occurrence. Using these risk profiles, individualized prevention strategies may be designed regarding deficits in groin muscle strength and identifying foot alignment.ACCEPTEDpeer-reviewe

Socio-economic factors associated with loss to follow-up among individuals with HCV: A Dutch nationwide cross-sectional study

Background and Aims: The path to hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination is complicated by individuals who become lost to follow-up (LTFU) during care, particularly before receiving effective HCV treatment. We aimed to determine factors contributing to LTFU and whether LTFU is associated with mortality. Methods: In this secondary analysis, we constructed a database including individuals with HCV who were either LTFU (data from the nationwide HCV retrieval project, CELINE) or treated with directly acting antivirals (DAA) (data from Statistics Netherlands) between 2012 and 2019. This database was linked to mortality data from Statistics Netherlands. Determinants associated with being LTFU versus DAA-treated were assessed using logistic regression, and mortality rates were compared between groups using exponential survival models. These analyses were additionally stratified on calendar periods: 2012–2014, 2015–2017 and 2018–2019. Results: About 254 individuals, LTFU and 5547 DAA-treated were included. Being institutionalized (OR = 5.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.29–7.65), household income below the social minimum (OR = 1.96, 95% CI = 1.25–3.06), receiving benefits (OR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.20–2.52) and psychiatric comorbidity (OR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.09–2.10) were associated with LTFU. Mortality rates were significantly higher in individuals LTFU compared to those DAA-treated (2.99 vs. 1.15/100 person-years (PY), p <.0001), while in those DAA-treated, mortality rates slowly increased between 2012–2014 (.22/100PY) and 2018–2019 (2.25/100PY). Conclusion: In the Netherlands, individuals who are incarcerated/institutionalized, with low household income, or with psychiatric comorbidities are prone to being LTFU, which is associated with higher mortality. HCV care needs to be adapted for these vulnerable individuals

Effectiveness of interspinous implant surgery in patients with intermittent neurogenic claudication: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Item does not contain fulltextINTRODUCTION: Despite an increasing implantation rate of interspinous process distraction (IPD) devices in the treatment of intermittent neurogenic claudication (INC), definitive evidence on the clinical effectiveness of implants is lacking. The main objective of this review was to perform a meta-analysis of all systematic reviews, randomized clinical trials and prospective cohort series to quantify the effectiveness of IPDs and to evaluate the potential side-effects. METHODS: Data from all studies prospectively describing clinical results based on validated outcome scales and reporting complications of treatment of patients with INC with IPD placement. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane (CENTRAL), CINAHL, Academic Search Premier, Science Direct up to July 2010. Studies describing patients with INC caused by lumbar stenosis, reporting complication rate and reporting based on validated outcome scores, were eligible. Studies with only instrumented IPD results were excluded. RESULTS: Eleven studies eligible studies were identified. Two independently RCTs and eight prospective cohorts were available. In total 563 patients were treated with IPDs. All studies showed improvement in validated outcome scores after 6 weeks and 1 year. Pooled data based on the Zurich Claudication Questionnaire of the RCTs were more in favor of IPD treatment compared with conservative treatment (pooled estimate 23.2, SD 18.5-27.8). Statistical heterogeneity after pooled data was low (I-squared 0.0, p = 0.930). Overall complication rate was 7%. CONCLUSION: As the evidence is relatively low and the costs are high, more thorough (cost-) effectiveness studies should be performed before worldwide implementation is introduced

Phrase-final words in Greek storytelling speech: a study on the effect of a culturally-specific prosodic feature on short-term memory

Prosodic patterns of speech appear to make a critical contribution to memoryrelated processing. We considered the case of a previously unexplored prosodic feature of Greek storytelling and its effect on free recall in thirty typically developing children between the ages of 10 and 12 years, using short ecologically valid auditory stimuli. The combination of a falling pitch contour and, more notably, extensive final-syllable vowel lengthening, which gives rise to the prosodic feature in question, led to statistically significantly higher performance in comparison to neutral phrase-final prosody. Number of syllables in target words did not reveal substantial difference in performance. The current study presents a previously undocumented culturally-specific prosodic pattern and its effect on short-term memory

Declining Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) Incidence in Dutch Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Positive Men Who Have Sex With Men After Unrestricted Access to HCV Therapy

Background Direct-acting antivirals (DAAa) cure hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections in 95% of infected patients. Modeling studies predict that universal HCV treatment will lead to a decrease in the incidence of new infections but real-life data are lacking. The incidence of HCV among Dutch human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–positive men who have sex with men (MSM) has been high for >10 years. In 2015 DAAs became available to all Dutch HCV patients and resulted in a rapid treatment uptake in HIV-positive MSM. We assessed whether this uptake was followed by a decrease in the incidence of HCV infections. Methods Two prospective studies of treatment for acute HCV infection enrolled patients in 17 Dutch HIV centers, having 76% of the total HIV-positive MSM population in care in the Netherlands. Patients were recru