Towards a theoretical determination of the geographical probability distribution of meteoroid impacts on Earth

Tunguska and Chelyabinsk impact events occurred inside a geographical area of only 3.4\% of the Earth's surface. Although two events hardly constitute a statistically significant demonstration of a geographical pattern of impacts, their spatial coincidence is at least tantalizing. To understand if this concurrence reflects an underlying geographical and/or temporal pattern, we must aim at predicting the spatio-temporal distribution of meteoroid impacts on Earth. For this purpose we designed, implemented and tested a novel numerical technique, the "Gravitational Ray Tracing" (GRT) designed to compute the relative impact probability (RIP) on the surface of any planet. GRT is inspired by the so-called ray-casting techniques used to render realistic images of complex 3D scenes. In this paper we describe the method and the results of testing it at the time of large impact events. Our findings suggest a non-trivial pattern of impact probabilities at any given time on Earth. Locations at $60-90\deg$ from the apex are more prone to impacts, especially at midnight. Counterintuitively, sites close to apex direction have the lowest RIP, while in the antapex RIP are slightly larger than average. We present here preliminary maps of RIP at the time of Tunguska and Chelyabinsk events and found no evidence of a spatial or temporal pattern, suggesting that their coincidence was fortuitous. We apply the GRT method to compute theoretical RIP at the location and time of 394 large fireballs. Although the predicted spatio-temporal impact distribution matches marginally the observed events, we successfully predict their impact speed distribution.Comment: 16 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRA

Cancer-Specific Mortality, Cure Fraction, and Noncancer Causes of Death Among Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma Patients in the Immunochemotherapy Era.

BACKGROUND Survival after the diagnosis of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) has been increasing since 2002 because of improved therapies; however, long-term outcomes for these patients in the modern treatment era are still unknown. METHODS Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data, this study first assessed factors associated with DLBCL-specific mortality during 2002-2012. An epidemiologic risk profile, based on clinical and demographic characteristics, was used to stratify DLBCL cases into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups. The proportions of DLBCL cases that might be considered cured in these 3 risk groups was estimated. Risks of death due to various noncancer causes among DLBCL cases versus the general population were also calculated with standardized mortality ratios (SMRs). RESULTS Overall, 8274 deaths were recorded among 18,047 DLBCL cases; 76% of the total deaths were attributed to DLBCL, and 24% were attributed to noncancer causes. The 10-year survival rates for the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups were 80%, 60%, and 36%, respectively. The estimated cure proportions for the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups were 73%, 49%, and 27%, respectively; however, these cure estimates were uncertain because of the need to extrapolate the survival curves beyond the follow-up time. Mortality risks calculated with SMRs were elevated for conditions including vascular diseases (SMR, 1.3), infections (SMR, 3.1), gastrointestinal diseases (SMR, 2.5), and blood diseases (SMR, 4.6). These mortality risks were especially high within the initial 5 years after the diagnosis and declined after 5 years. CONCLUSIONS Some DLBCL patients may be cured of their cancer, but they continue to experience excess mortality from lymphoma and other noncancer causes. Cancer 2017. © 2017 American Cancer Society

What is the role of the placebo effect for pain relief in neurorehabilitation? Clinical implications from the Italian consensus conference on pain in neurorehabilitation

Background: It is increasingly acknowledged that the outcomes of medical treatments are influenced by the context of the clinical encounter through the mechanisms of the placebo effect. The phenomenon of placebo analgesia might be exploited to maximize the efficacy of neurorehabilitation treatments. Since its intensity varies across neurological disorders, the Italian Consensus Conference on Pain in Neurorehabilitation (ICCP) summarized the studies on this field to provide guidance on its use. Methods: A review of the existing reviews and meta-analyses was performed to assess the magnitude of the placebo effect in disorders that may undergo neurorehabilitation treatment. The search was performed on Pubmed using placebo, pain, and the names of neurological disorders as keywords. Methodological quality was assessed using a pre-existing checklist. Data about the magnitude of the placebo effect were extracted from the included reviews and were commented in a narrative form. Results: 11 articles were included in this review. Placebo treatments showed weak effects in central neuropathic pain (pain reduction from 0.44 to 0.66 on a 0-10 scale) and moderate effects in postherpetic neuralgia (1.16), in diabetic peripheral neuropathy (1.45), and in pain associated to HIV (1.82). Moderate effects were also found on pain due to fibromyalgia and migraine; only weak short-term effects were found in complex regional pain syndrome. Confounding variables might have influenced these results. Clinical implications: These estimates should be interpreted with caution, but underscore that the placebo effect can be exploited in neurorehabilitation programs. It is not necessary to conceal its use from the patient. Knowledge of placebo mechanisms can be used to shape the doctor-patient relationship, to reduce the use of analgesic drugs and to train the patient to become an active agent of the therapy

Expected population impacts of discontinued prostate-specific antigen screening.

BackgroundProstate-specific antigen (PSA) screening for prostate cancer has high risks of overdiagnosis, particularly among older men, and reports from screening trials indicate that it saves few lives after 11 to 13 years of follow-up. New clinical guidelines recommend against PSA screening for all men or for men aged >70 years, but, to the authors' knowledge, the expected population effects of these guidelines have not been studied to date.MethodsTwo models of prostate cancer natural history and diagnosis were previously developed using reconstructed PSA screening patterns and prostate cancer incidence in the United States. Assuming a survival benefit of PSA screening consistent with the screening trials, the authors used the models to predict incidence and mortality rates for the period from 2013 through 2025 under continued PSA screening and under discontinued PSA screening for all men or for men aged >70 years.ResultsThe models predicted that continuation of recent screening rates will overdiagnose 710,000 to 1,120,000 men (range between models) but will avoid 36,000 to 57,000 cancer deaths over the period 2013 through 2025. Discontinued screening for all men eliminated 100% of overdiagnoses but failed to prevent 100% of avoidable cancer deaths. Continued screening for men aged <70 years eliminated 64% to 66% of overdiagnoses but failed to prevent 36% to 39% of avoidable cancer deaths.ConclusionsDiscontinuing PSA screening for all men may generate many avoidable cancer deaths. Continuing PSA screening for men aged <70 years could prevent greater than one-half of these avoidable cancer deaths while dramatically reducing overdiagnoses compared with continued PSA screening for all ages

The Impact of Intensifying Prostate Cancer Screening in Black Men: A Model-Based Analysis

Background: Black men in the United States have markedly higher rates of prostate cancer than the general population. National guidelines for prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening do not provide clear guidance for this high-risk population. The purpose of this study is to estimate the benefit and harm of intensified PSA screening in Black men. Methods: Two microsimulation models of prostate cancer calibrated to incidence from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program among Black men project the impact of different screening strategies (varying screening intervals, starting and stopping ages, and biopsy utilization following an abnormal PSA) on disease-specific mortality and overdiagnosis. Each strategy induces a mean lead time (MLT) for detected cases. A longer MLT reduces mortality according to estimates combining the US and European prostate cancer screening trials but increases overdiagnosis. Results: Under historical population screening, Black men had similar MLT to men of all races and similar mortality reduction (range between models = 21%-24% vs 20%-24%) but a higher frequency of overdiagnosis (75-86 vs 58-60 per 1000 men). Screening Black men aged 40-84 years annually would increase both mortality reduction (29%-31%) and overdiagnosis (112-129 per 1000). Restricting screening to ages 45-69 years would still achieve substantial mortality reduction (26%-29%) with lower overdiagnosis (51-61 per 1000). Increasing biopsy utilization to 100% of abnormal tests would further reduce mortality but substantially increase overdiagnosis. Conclusions: Annual screening in Black men is expected to reduce mortality more than that estimated under historical screening. Limiting screening to men younger than 70 years is expected to help reduce overdiagnosis