Stock Market Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Reaction Functions of the Federal Reserve Bank

In this paper we examine the link between stock market uncertainty and monetary policy in the US. There are strong arguments why central banks should account for stock market uncertainty in their strategy. Amongst others, they can maintain the functioning of financial markets and moderate possible economic downswings. To describe the behavior of the Federal Reserve Bank, augmented forward-looking Taylor rules are estimated by GMM. The standard specification is expanded by a measure for stock market uncertainty, which is estimated by an exponential GARCH-model.We show that, given a certain level of inflation and output, US central bank rates are significantly lower when stock market uncertainty is high and vice versa. These results are achieved by using the federal funds rate from 1980:10 to 2007:7.Monetary policy rules, financial markets, stock market uncertainty, EGARCH

Stock Market Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Reaction Functions of the Federal Reserve Bank

In this paper we examine the link between stock market uncertainty and monetary policy in the US. There are strong arguments why central banks should account for stock market uncertainty in their strategy. Amongst others, they can maintain the functioning of financial markets and moderate possible economic downswings. To describe the behavior of the Federal Reserve Bank, augmented forward-looking Taylor rules are estimated by GMM. The standard specification is expanded by a measure for stock market uncertainty, which is estimated by an exponential GARCH-model. We show that, given a certain level of inflation and output, US central bank rates are significantly lower when stock market uncertainty is high and vice versa. These results are achieved by using the federal funds rate from 1980:10 to 2007:7

Runoff under no tillage system: effect of some meteorological factors

El escurrimiento superficial es un proceso que debe ser considerado por su efecto sobre el ambiente como también por sus consecuencias productivas. Dada su importancia a escala de lote de producción, el objetivo del trabajo fue estudiar la incidencia de las precipitaciones, la temperatura y otros efectos estacionales, sobre las características de los escurrimientos de un Argiudol vértico cultivado en un sistema de siembra directa. El trabajo se desarrolló en un lote con maíz en siembra directa, ubicado en Zavalla, Santa Fe, Argentina (33°02'14,84"S, 60°54'04.40"O). Con la información proveniente de las lluvias (lámina, intensidad, duración y precipitaciones previas), de las temperaturas (máximas y medias diarias), de los escurrimientos (lámina, duración y caudal pico) y de algunos parámetros estimados (curva número, condición antecedente de humedad, tiempo de retraso y coeficientes de abstracción inicial y de escurrimiento), se estudió el grado de vinculación entre las diferentes variables climáticas y de escurrimiento. Se pudo comprobar una fuerte relación entre las precipitaciones caídas los cinco días previos a cada evento de escurrimiento con el valor de la curva número, la lámina escurrida y el coeficiente de escurrimiento. La lluvia de los diez días anteriores influyó sobre el coeficiente de abstracción inicial, aumentando su valor a partir de precipitaciones previas mayores a los 40 mm. Las lluvias y las temperaturas máximas o medias de los diez a quince días previos, incidieron sobre la extensión del tiempo de retraso. Al estimar la lluvia en exceso considerando la abstracción inicial registrada a campo, la dinámica del escurrimiento y el caudal pico predichos presentaron resultados más satisfactorios, respecto a emplear la metodología tradicional pautada por el modelo de la curva número. No se observaron efectos estacionales o de las diferentes etapas del cultivo de maíz (barbecho o período de crecimiento), sobre el comportamiento hidrológico de la parcela.Surface runoff should be taken into account not only for its impact on the environment but also for its effect on crop production. Surface runoff should be evaluated at the field scale; the objective of this study was to evaluate rainfall, temperature and other seasonal effects on runoff characteristics of a vertic Argiudol under no-tillage. The study was conducted in a corn field under no-tillage in Zavalla, Santa Fe, Argentina (33°02'14.84"S, 60°54'04.40"O). With the rainfall information (amount, duration, intensity and previous rainfall), temperatures (maximum and average daily), runoff (amount, duration and peak flow) and some estimated parameters (curve number, previous moisture condition, lag time and initial abstraction and runoff coefficients) the association among the different climatic and runoff variables was studied. A strong relationship was observed between rainfall the previous five days and the curve number value, runoff depth and runoff coefficient. Ten day= previous rainfall influenced the initial abstraction coefficient, increasing its value with previous rainfall greater than 40 mm. Rainfall and maximum or average temperatures of ten to fifteen days previous rainfall impacted on the delay time extent (Lag). When rainfall excess was estimated taking into account the field initial abstraction, runoff dynamics and peak flow were more satisfactory predicted compared to the results obtained with the traditional methodology used by the curve number model. Seasonal effects and corn growth stages (fallow or growing period) did not affect the hydrological plot response.Fil: Castiglione, Mario. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía; ArgentinaFil: Zimmermann, Erik Daniel. Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Ingeniería y Agrimensura; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

Natural forest regrowth as a proxy variable for agricultural land abandonment in the Swiss mountains: a spatial statistical model based on geophysical and socio-economic variables

In many European mountain regions, natural forest regrowth on abandoned agricultural land and the related consequences for the environment are issues of increasing concern. We developed a spatial statistical model based on multiple geophysical and socio-economic variables to investigate the pattern of natural forest regrowth in the Swiss mountain area between the 1980s and 1990s. Results show that forest regrowth occurred primarily in areas with low temperature sum, intermediate steepness and soil stoniness as well as close to forest edges and relatively close to roads. Model results suggest that regions with weak labor markets are favored in terms of land abandonment and forest regrowth. We could not find an effect of population change on land abandonment and forest regrowth. Therefore, we conclude that decision makers should consider non-linearities in the pattern of forest regrowth and the fact that labor markets have an effect on land abandonment and forest regrowth when designing measures to prevent agricultural land abandonment and natural forest regrowth in the Swiss mountain

Ruptured abdominal aorto-iliac aneurysms: Diagnosis, treatment, abdominal compartment syndrome, and role of simulation-based training

Ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (rAAA), with or without iliac involvement, are a lifethreatening scenario with high mortality even after surgical therapy. Several factors have contributed to improving perioperative outcomes in recent years, including the progressive use of endovascular aortic repair (EVAR) and intraoperative balloon occlusion of the aorta, a dedicated treatment algorithm with centralization of care to high-volume centres, and optimized perioperative management protocols. Nowadays, EVAR is applicable in the majority of scenarios even in the emergency setting. Among the factors that influence the postoperative course of rAAA patients, abdominal compartment syndrome (ACS) is a rare but life-threatening complication. As its early clinical diagnosis is often missed but crucial to initiate an emergent surgical decompression therapy, dedicated surveillance protocols and transvesical measurement of the intraabdominal pressure are key for prompt diagnosis and immediate treatment of ACS. Further improvement of rAAA patients’ outcome may be achieved by the implementation of simulation-based training (of both technical and nontechnical skills for surgeons as well as all involved healthcare personnel in multidisciplinary teams) and by transfer of all rAAA patients to specialized vascular centres with advanced experience and high caseload

Evidence from comparative genomics for a complete sexual cycle in the 'asexual' pathogenic yeast Candida glabrata

BACKGROUND: Candida glabrata is a pathogenic yeast of increasing medical concern. It has been regarded as asexual since it was first described in 1917, yet phylogenetic analyses have revealed that it is more closely related to sexual yeasts than other Candida species. We show here that the C. glabrata genome contains many genes apparently involved in sexual reproduction. RESULTS: By genome survey sequencing, we find that genes involved in mating and meiosis are as numerous in C. glabrata as in the sexual species Kluyveromyces delphensis, which is its closest known relative. C. glabrata has a putative mating-type (MAT) locus and a pheromone gene (MFALPHA2), as well as orthologs of at least 31 other Saccharomyces cerevisiae genes that have no known roles apart from mating or meiosis, including FUS3, IME1 and SMK1. CONCLUSIONS: We infer that C. glabrata is likely to have an undiscovered sexual stage in its life cycle, similar to that recently proposed for C. albicans. The two Candida species represent two distantly related yeast lineages that have independently become both pathogenic and 'asexual'. Parallel evolution in the two lineages as they adopted mammalian hosts resulted in separate but analogous switches from overtly sexual to cryptically sexual life cycles, possibly in response to defense by the host immune system

Оцінка фінансового стану підприємства

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Scenario building and runout modelling for debris flow hazards in pro-/periglacial catchments with scarce past event data: application of a multi-methods approach for the Dar catchment (western Swiss Alps)

In high mountain areas, the disposition (susceptibility of occurrence) for debris flows is increasing in steep terrain, as – due to climate change – rapid glacier retreat and permafrost degradation is favouring higher availability of loose sediments. The probability of occurrence and magnitude of pro- and periglacial debris flows is increasing, too, as triggering events such as heavy thunderstorms, long-lasting rainfalls, intense snow melt or rain-on-snow events are likely to occur more often and more intensely in future decades. Hazard assessment for debris flows originating from pro- and periglacial areas is thus crucial but remains challenging, as records of past events on which local magnitude-frequency relationships and debris flow scenarios can be based on are often scarce or inexistent. In this study, we present a multi-methods approach for debris flow hazard scenario building and runout modelling in pro- and periglacial catchments with scarce past event data. Scenario building for the debris flow initiation zone reposes on (i) the definition of meteorological and hydrological triggering scenarios using data on extreme point rainfall and precipitation-runoff modelling, and (ii) the definition of bed load scenarios from empirical approaches and field surveys. Numerical runout modelling and hazard assessment for the resulting debris flow scenarios is carried out using RAMMS-DF, which was calibrated to the studied catchment (Le Dar, western Swiss Alps) based on the area of debris flow deposits from the single major event recorded there in summer 2005. The developed approach is among the first to propose systematic scenario building for pro- and periglacial debris flows triggered by precipitation dependent events