Anticipatory climate governance in Central America

Anticipating the possible impacts of climate change has become a key global focus. Scenarios and many other methods and tools are used today to imagine climate futures and develop strategies for realizing new futures while governing climate change. With the proliferation of these processes in sustainability-related research and planning contexts, scrutiny of their role in steering decision-making becomes increasingly important. How can the benefits and challenges of these processes of anticipation be better understood as governance interventions? Research into anticipatory climate governance processes in the Global South has remained very limited, while these regions are most vulnerable to climate change. This report therefore examines processes of anticipation in Central America. The research question we answer is: ‘through what approaches are diverse processes of anticipation used to govern climate change in diverse Central American contexts?’. In order to answer this question, we first examine what methods and tools are used to anticipate climate futures and their role in climate policy and decision-making. We then closely examine three case studies to understand their approaches to anticipatory governance. Additionally, we present the results of two regional meetings with stakeholders where we discussed the challenges that exist in each country to practice anticipatory climate governance and the opportunities to strengthen capacities in this field. Finally, we present recommendations for strengthening processes of anticipatory climate governance in the region

Shifting the paradigm: Narratives of the future guide the development of Costa Rica's INDC

This policy brief summarizes the process and main results of the development of Costa Rica´s INDC through a participatory process in which the building and use of future scenarios was the first step in a national dialogue to define, test and improve mitigation measures to lower emissions of greenhouse gases

Cambiando el paradigma: las narrativas del futuro guían el desarrollo de la INDC de Costa Rica

Este resumen de política presenta el proceso y los principales resultados del desarrollo de la INDC de Costa Rica a través de un proceso participativo en el que la construcción y uso de escenarios futuros fue el primer paso de un diálogo nacional para definir, probar y mejorar las medidas de mitigación para la reducción de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero

Оценка нарушенных зон угленосной толщи

Наведено результати аналізу порушених зон, виділених у вугільних пластах Павлоградсько-Петропавлівського і Донецько-Макіївського геолого-промислових районів Донбасу, на основі визначення кількості тектонічних блоків порід, їх розмірів і розрахунку їх коефіцієнтів форми.The results of analysis of the dislocated zone, selected in coal layers of Pavlogradsko- Petropavlovskiy and Donetzko-Makeevskiy geological-industrial districts of Donbas on the basis of determining the percentage of tectonic blocks of rocks, their sizes and calculation of their coefficients of form are presented in the article

Crash-testing policies; How scenarios can support climate change policy formulation A methodological guide with case studies from Latin America

The objective of this handbook is to guide policy makers and practitioners from the public, private and research sector in the development and use of scenarios to support the inclusive formulation of policies and other decision-making processes related to complex issues taking place in changing environments. The lessons shared are based on nine policy formulation processes for climate in Latin America supported by the CCAFS future scenarios project since 2013. Five of these cases are discussed to exemplify the steps described to use scenarios and support the development of policies

Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia

Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use scenarios to present alternative futures to inform policy. Nevertheless, many of these can limit the possibility space with which decision-makers engage. This paper will present a participatory scenario process that maintains a large possibility space through the use of multiple factors and factor-states and a multi-model ensemble to create and quantify four regional scenarios for Southeast Asia. To do this we will explain 1) the process of multi-factor, multi-state building was done in a stakeholder workshop in Vietnam, 2) the scenario quantification and model results from GLOBIOM and IMPACT, two economic models, and 3) how the scenarios have already been applied to diverse policy processes in Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam

Breast milk nutrient content and infancy growth.

AIM: Benefits of human breast milk (HM) in avoiding rapid infancy weight gain and later obesity could relate to its nutrient content. We tested the hypothesis that differential HM total calorie content (TCC) or macronutrient contents may be associated with infancy growth. METHODS: HM hindmilk samples were collected at ages 4-8 weeks from 614 mothers participating in a representative birth cohort, with repeated infancy anthropometry. HM triglyceride (fat), lipid analytes and lactose (carbohydrate) were measured by (1) H-NMR, and protein content by the Dumas method. TCC and %macronutrients were determined. RESULTS: In 614 HM samples, fat content was as follows: [median(IQR)]: 2.6 (1.7-3.6) g/100 mL, carbohydrate: 8.6 (8.2-8.8) g/100 mL, protein: 1.2 (1.1-1.2) g/100 mL; TCC: 61.8 (53.7-71.3) kcal/100 mL. HM of mothers exclusively breast feeding vs. mixed feeding was more calorific with higher %fat, lower %carbohydrate and lower %protein. Higher HM TCC was associated with lower 12-months body mass index (BMI)/adiposity, and lower 3-12 months gains in weight/BMI. HM %fat was inversely related to 3-12 months gains in weight, BMI and adiposity, whereas %carbohydrate was positively related to these measures. HM %protein was positively related to 12-months BMI. CONCLUSION: HM analysis showed wide variation in %macronutrients. Although data on milk intakes were unavailable, our findings suggest functional relevance of HM milk composition to infant growth.PP was supported by a MRC Clinical Training Fellowship (G1001995). The Cambridge Baby Growth Study has been supported by the European Union, the World Cancer Research Foundation International, the Medical Research Council, the NIHR Cambridge Comprehensive Biomedical Research Centre, the Newlife Foundation for disabled children, the Mothercare Group Foundation, and Mead Johnson Nutrition.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Wiley via https://doi.org/ 10.1111/apa.1336

Dynamic changes in ANGUSTIFOLIA3 complex composition reveal a growth regulatory mechanism in the maize leaf

Most molecular processes during plant development occur with a particular spatio-temporal specificity. Thus far, it has remained technically challenging to capture dynamic protein-protein interactions within a growing organ, where the interplay between cell division and cell expansion is instrumental. Here, we combined high-resolution sampling of the growing maize (Zea mays) leaf with tandem affinity purification followed by mass spectrometry. Our results indicate that the growth-regulating SWI/SNF chromatin remodeling complex associated with ANGUSTIFOLIA3 (AN3) was conserved within growing organs and between dicots and monocots. Moreover, we were able to demonstrate the dynamics of the AN3-interacting proteins within the growing leaf, since copurified GROWTH-REGULATING FACTORs (GRFs) varied throughout the growing leaf. Indeed, GRF1, GRF6, GRF7, GRF12, GRF15, and GRF17 were significantly enriched in the division zone of the growing leaf, while GRF4 and GRF10 levels were comparable between division zone and expansion zone in the growing leaf. These dynamics were also reflected at the mRNA and protein levels, indicating tight developmental regulation of the AN3-associated chromatin remodeling complex. In addition, the phenotypes of maize plants overexpressing miRNA396a-resistant GRF1 support a model proposing that distinct associations of the chromatin remodeling complex with specific GRFs tightly regulate the transition between cell division and cell expansion. Together, our data demonstrate that advancing from static to dynamic protein-protein interaction analysis in a growing organ adds insights in how developmental switches are regulated

Transformative horizons: reflecting on a decade of scenario-guided policy formulation

Participatory foresight has proliferated rapidly in response to unprecedented global uncertainty and the need to transform to more sustainable societies. However, the link from foresight to action is often under-researched; and understanding how foresight can be used for the realization of transformative ambitions has proven particularly difficult. In this paper, we reflect on a unique case: a project that spans eleven years of scenario-guided participatory policy formulation processes for food security and agriculture under climate change across seven global regions. Many of the policy formulation processes in these regions have led to changed policies and plans as a result of participatory scenario analysis. The length, scope, and level of policy engagement that characterizes this case offers unique opportunities for learning about impactful foresight. In addition, lessons from the project have proliferated into a range of other initiatives that have often been able to complement the original project strategies with new approaches that have in turn yielded more insights. We provide core insights from the successes and failures in this unique global case for connecting foresight to action by examining interactions between 1) institutional contexts and knowledge systems; 2) relationships with the future; 3) imaginaries; 4) participation cultures; 5) process designs and participants; and 6) futures methodology. We then go on to discuss how such best practices can be ‘scaled deep’; ‘scaled out’; and ‘scaled up’ for transformative change

Human Milk Short-Chain Fatty Acid Composition is Associated with Adiposity Outcomes in Infants.

BACKGROUND: Presumed benefits of human milk (HM) in avoiding rapid infancy weight gain and later obesity could relate to its nutrient composition. However, data on breast milk composition and its relation with growth are sparse. OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs), known to be present in HM and linked to energy metabolism, are associated with infancy anthropometrics. METHODS: In a prospective birth cohort, HM hindmilk samples were collected from 619 lactating mothers at 4-8 wk postnatally [median (IQR) age: 33.9 (31.3-36.5) y, body mass index (BMI) (kg/m2): 22.8 (20.9-25.2)]. Their offspring, born at 40.1 (39.1-41.0) wk gestation with weight 3.56 (3.22-3.87) kg and 51% male, were assessed with measurement of weight, length, and skinfold thickness at ages 3, 12, and 24 mo, and transformed to age- and sex-adjusted z scores. HM SCFAs were measured by 1H-nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (NMR) and GC-MS. Multivariable linear regression models were conducted to analyze the relations between NMR HM SCFAs and infancy growth parameters with adjustment for potential confounders. RESULTS: NMR peaks for HM butyrate, acetate, and formic acid, but not propionate, were detected. Butyrate peaks were 17.8% higher in HM from exclusively breastfeeding mothers than mixed-feeding mothers (P = 0.003). HM butyrate peak values were negatively associated with changes in infant weight (standardized B  = -0.10, P = 0.019) and BMI (B = -0.10, P = 0.018) between 3 and 12 mo, and negatively associated with BMI (B = -0.10, P = 0.018) and mean skinfold thickness (B = -0.10, P = 0.049) at age 12 mo. HM formic acid peak values showed a consistent negative association with infant BMI at all time points (B < = -0.10, P < = 0.014), whereas HM acetate was negatively associated with skinfold thickness at 3 mo (B = -0.10, P = 0.028) and 24 mo (B = -0.10, P = 0.036). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that HM SCFAs play a beneficial role in weight gain and adiposity during infancy. Further knowledge of HM SCFA function may inform future strategies to support healthy growth.PP was supported by a Medical Research Council Clinical Training Fellowship (G1001995). The Cambridge Baby Growth Study has been supported by the European Union (QLK4-1999-01422), the World Cancer Research Foundation International (2004/03), the Medical Research Council (7500001180), the NIHR Cambridge Comprehensive Biomedical Research Centre, Newlife - The Charity for Disabled Children (07/20), Mothercare Foundation (RG54608), and Mead Johnson Nutrition. KKO is supported by the Medical Research Council (MC_UU_12015/2)