МАТЕМАТИКО-СТАТИСТИЧЕСКОЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ РИСКОВ СДЕЛОК СЛИЯНИЯ И ПОГЛОЩЕНИЯ

Method of Mathematical and statistical research of risks of mergers and takeover for improvement of the efficiency of integration activity of Russian companies is offered. Implementation of this method was shown on the basis of the integration projects of one of the leading metallurgy companies of the Russian Federation.В статье предложена методика математико-статистического исследования рисков сделок слияния и поглощения для повышения эффективности интеграционной политики российских компаний. Реализация данной методики продемонстрирована на основе портфеля интеграционных проектов одной из ведущих металлургических компаний РФ

МАТЕМАТИКО-СТАТИСТИЧЕСКОЕ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ИНТЕГРАЦИОННОЙ АКТИВНОСТИ РОССИЙСКИХ КОМПАНИЙ РАЗЛИЧНЫХ СЕКТОРОВ ЭКОНОМИКИ РФ

This article proposes a worked out mathematical and statistical model of the Russian Federation economic sectors in 2008-2012 according to their level of integration activities on the basis of splitting mixtures of the probabilistic distributions. On the basis of the submitted analysis it is possible to work out measures of government policy for the purpose of growth of effectiveness of integration activities among different sectors of Russian economy.В статье предложена математико-статистическая модель классификации секторов экономики РФ по уровню интеграционной активности за 2008-2012 гг. на основе расщепления смесей вероятностных распределений. На основе представленного анализа возможна выработка мер государственной политики в целях повышения эффективности интеграционной деятельности различных секторов экономики России

СТАТИСТИЧЕСКИЙ ПОДХОД К ОЦЕНКЕ ЛОГИСТИЧЕСКИХ РИСКОВ ПРОМЫШЛЕННЫХ ПРЕДПРИЯТИЙ

The article offers the methodology of statistical research of the risks of logistical systems to improve the stability and efficiency of Russian industrial enterprises. Realization of this methodology is shown by the example of estimation of the risks of late shipment of goods of OAO Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works, JSC.В статье предложена методика статистического исследования рисков логистических систем для повышения устойчивости и эффективности работы промышленных предприятий России. Реализация данной методики продемонстрирована на примере оценки риска несвоевременной отгрузки продукции ОАО «Магнитогорский металлургический комбинат»

Paatsjoen monitoimisuunnitelma : Pasvik MultiUsePlan

Suunnittelualue käsittää Paatsjoen vesistöalueen, joka sijaitsee Venäjän, Norjan ja Suomen raja-alueella, sekä Vuoremijoen vesistöalueen, joka sijaitsee Venäjän ja Norjan raja-alueella. Norjan ja Venäjän raja kulkee 112 kilometrin matkan pitkin Paatsjoen jokiuomaa. Paatsjoen latvavedet laskevat Inarijärveen Suomessa, josta se virtaa Paatsjokilaakson halki ja laskee Barentsinmereen Bøkfjordenissa. Valuma-alueesta suurin osa (noin 70 %) sijaitsee Suomen puolella ja pienemmät osat Venäjän (25 %) ja Norjan (5 %) puolella. Vuoremijoki on Norjan ja Venäjän välinen rajajoki. Joen viimeiset 35 kilometriä muodostavat pohjoisimman maiden välisen rajan. Kummankin joen valuma-alueet ovat valtavia luontoalueita, joihin kuuluu sekä luonnonsuojelualueita että vesi- ja maa-alueiden ekosysteemejä, joihin ihminen on omalta osaltaan vaikuttanut. Teollinen toiminta on alueen teollistumisesta lähtien vaikuttanut ympäristöön enenevissä määrin. Suurimmat teollisuusyhtiöt Paatsjoen vesistöalueella ovat Kuolan kaivos- ja metalliyhtiö (Kola GMK), jonka tuotantoyksiköt toimivat Venäjän puolella Zapoljarnyin ja Nikkelin kaupungeissa, sekä Etelä-Varangin rautakaivos Kirkkoniemen Bjørnevatnissa. Metalliyhtiön sulatto Nikkelissä on suljettu joulukuussa 2020, lisäksi rikasteen kuivaus ja briketöinti on lopetettu Zapolyarniyn kaupungissa. Suomessa Inarin kunnassa harjoitetaan ainoastaan kullanhuuhdontaa, ei teollista mineraalien louhimista. Teollisuudesta ja muusta ihmisen alueella harjoittamasta toiminnasta syntyvien saasteiden lisäksi luonnon ekosysteemeihin vaikuttavat myös kaukokulkeuma, vesistöjen säännöstely, haitalliset vieraslajit ja muut ihmistoiminnan vaikutukset (kullanhuuhdonta, metsätalous, maatalous, matkailu ja muu taloudellinen toiminta). Vesistöissä on havaittavissa merkkejä ilmaston lämpenemisestä. Suunnittelun tavoitteena on toimenpideohjelma, joka tukee Paatsjoen ja Vuoremijoen vesistöjen hyvinvointia. Hyvä ympäristön tila on pohjana kolmen maan raja-alueen elinvoimaisuudelle. Ympäristöhaasteet ovat usein rajat ylittäviä. Ratkaisuja näihin ongelmiin on etsittävä yhteistyössä ja yhteisymmärryksessä rajan eri puolilla toimivien viranomaisten ja sidosryhmien kanssa. Mikään maa, instituutio tai sidosryhmä ei voi ratkaista ongelmia yksin. Yhteiset ratkaisut yhteisiin ongelmiin hyödyttävät kaikkia. Venäjän, Norjan ja Suomen kolmenvälinen yhteistyö Paatsjoen vesistöalueella alkoi 1980-luvun lopulla luonnonsuojelun, ympäristön hoidon, seurannan ja tutkimuksen merkeissä. Ihmistoiminnan aiheuttaman kuormituksen vaikutuksia vesi- ja maa-alueiden ekosysteemeihin on tutkittu ja dokumentoitu. Yhteistä seurantatoimintaa on kehitetty ja osittain pantu toimeen erilaisissa ohjelmissa. Alueen omaleimaisen luonnon ja kulttuuriperinnön suojelemiseksi perustettiin vuonna 2008 Paatsjoki-Inarin kolmikantapuisto (Pasvik Trilateral Park), johon kuuluu useita luonnonsuojelualueita kaikista kolmesta maasta. Lisäksi vuonna 1996 kehitettiin suomalais-norjalaisen rajavesistökomission aloitteesta yhteinen Paatsjoen monikäyttösuunnitelma (ekologinen passi), joka koskee Venäjän, Norjan ja Suomen kolmenvälistä yhteistyötä. Tämä suunnitelma on jo vanhentunut ja kaipaa uusimista sekä päivitystä, jotta se on uusien suunnittelustandardien mukainen. Vuoremijoen osalta vastaavaa suunnitelmaa ei ennestään ole, mutta hoitoa ja toimenpiteitä täytyy koordinoida tiiviissä yhteistyössä myös tällä rajajoella. Vuoremijoen vesistöalue on siksi otettu tämän monitoimisuunnitelman suunnittelualueeksi Paatsjoen vesistöalueen rinnalle

Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent

Ongoing climate change can shift organism phenology in ways that vary depending on species, habitats and climate factors studied. To probe for large-scale patterns in associated phenological change, we use 70,709 observations from six decades of systematic monitoring across the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Among 110 phenological events related to plants, birds, insects, amphibians and fungi, we find a mosaic of change, defying simple predictions of earlier springs, later autumns and stronger changes at higher latitudes and elevations. Site mean temperature emerged as a strong predictor of local phenology, but the magnitude and direction of change varied with trophic level and the relative timing of an event. Beyond temperature-associated variation, we uncover high variation among both sites and years, with some sites being characterized by disproportionately long seasons and others by short ones. Our findings emphasize concerns regarding ecosystem integrity and highlight the difficulty of predicting climate change outcomes. The authors use systematic monitoring across the former USSR to investigate phenological changes across taxa. The long-term mean temperature of a site emerged as a strong predictor of phenological change, with further imprints of trophic level, event timing, site, year and biotic interactions.Peer reviewe

Chronicles of nature calendar, a long-term and large-scale multitaxon database on phenology

We present an extensive, large-scale, long-term and multitaxon database on phenological and climatic variation, involving 506,186 observation dates acquired in 471 localities in Russian Federation, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan. The data cover the period 1890-2018, with 96% of the data being from 1960 onwards. The database is rich in plants, birds and climatic events, but also includes insects, amphibians, reptiles and fungi. The database includes multiple events per species, such as the onset days of leaf unfolding and leaf fall for plants, and the days for first spring and last autumn occurrences for birds. The data were acquired using standardized methods by permanent staff of national parks and nature reserves (87% of the data) and members of a phenological observation network (13% of the data). The database is valuable for exploring how species respond in their phenology to climate change. Large-scale analyses of spatial variation in phenological response can help to better predict the consequences of species and community responses to climate change.Peer reviewe

Settlement risk in cross-border transactions : traditional and new approaches

Although the wholesale payment systems operate unnoticed daily, these arrangements are crucial for our daily life. In this thesis I attempt to shed more light on the settlement risk in traditional wholesale payment systems based on corresponding banking (CB) settlement, and the Continuous Linked Settlement (CLS) systems, and a new settlement system based on the Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT). The contemporary systems for cross-border payments are complex, costly, and fragmented, so, many companies and authorities are searching for a more viable solution to take advantage of modern technology, and for creation of a safe and efficient payment system. It is necessary to improve the interoperability among the local and global financial infrastructures in order facilitate and evolve international trade and development for all countries. This thesis presents extended literature and computational analyses of the settlement risk duration and exposure for a simple high-value payment and FX spot deal between small-size financial institutions or corporates. The settlement based on the CB network, settlement via the CLS system, and the DLT-based settlement using Utility Settlement Coin (USC) are the main study objects. The analysis results demonstrate that the settlement system based on CB expose its customers to a considerable settlement risk due to low transparency, tied-up liquidity, and time-consuming manual processes. The CLS system allows reducing the settlement risk for its direct participants, but the third parties are still face significant settlement risk exposure due to the linked CB parts. This work demonstrates the a USC settlement system can alleviate the settlement risk by means of faster settlement (0.5-8 hours instead of 5-24 hours), end-to-end visibility, and greater trust in the time-critical and reliability-demanding wholesale cross-border payment system. The settlement delays in the USC-based system are mainly associated with overburden regulatory compliance checks and direct participants’ desire to delay the final transfer in order to optimize the liquidity usage through the day.nhhma

Settlement risk in cross-border transactions : traditional and new approaches

Although the wholesale payment systems operate unnoticed daily, these arrangements are crucial for our daily life. In this thesis I attempt to shed more light on the settlement risk in traditional wholesale payment systems based on corresponding banking (CB) settlement, and the Continuous Linked Settlement (CLS) systems, and a new settlement system based on the Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT). The contemporary systems for cross-border payments are complex, costly, and fragmented, so, many companies and authorities are searching for a more viable solution to take advantage of modern technology, and for creation of a safe and efficient payment system. It is necessary to improve the interoperability among the local and global financial infrastructures in order facilitate and evolve international trade and development for all countries. This thesis presents extended literature and computational analyses of the settlement risk duration and exposure for a simple high-value payment and FX spot deal between small-size financial institutions or corporates. The settlement based on the CB network, settlement via the CLS system, and the DLT-based settlement using Utility Settlement Coin (USC) are the main study objects. The analysis results demonstrate that the settlement system based on CB expose its customers to a considerable settlement risk due to low transparency, tied-up liquidity, and time-consuming manual processes. The CLS system allows reducing the settlement risk for its direct participants, but the third parties are still face significant settlement risk exposure due to the linked CB parts. This work demonstrates the a USC settlement system can alleviate the settlement risk by means of faster settlement (0.5-8 hours instead of 5-24 hours), end-to-end visibility, and greater trust in the time-critical and reliability-demanding wholesale cross-border payment system. The settlement delays in the USC-based system are mainly associated with overburden regulatory compliance checks and direct participants’ desire to delay the final transfer in order to optimize the liquidity usage through the day

Settlement risk in cross-border transactions : traditional and new approaches

Although the wholesale payment systems operate unnoticed daily, these arrangements are crucial for our daily life. In this thesis I attempt to shed more light on the settlement risk in traditional wholesale payment systems based on corresponding banking (CB) settlement, and the Continuous Linked Settlement (CLS) systems, and a new settlement system based on the Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT). The contemporary systems for cross-border payments are complex, costly, and fragmented, so, many companies and authorities are searching for a more viable solution to take advantage of modern technology, and for creation of a safe and efficient payment system. It is necessary to improve the interoperability among the local and global financial infrastructures in order facilitate and evolve international trade and development for all countries. This thesis presents extended literature and computational analyses of the settlement risk duration and exposure for a simple high-value payment and FX spot deal between small-size financial institutions or corporates. The settlement based on the CB network, settlement via the CLS system, and the DLT-based settlement using Utility Settlement Coin (USC) are the main study objects. The analysis results demonstrate that the settlement system based on CB expose its customers to a considerable settlement risk due to low transparency, tied-up liquidity, and time-consuming manual processes. The CLS system allows reducing the settlement risk for its direct participants, but the third parties are still face significant settlement risk exposure due to the linked CB parts. This work demonstrates the a USC settlement system can alleviate the settlement risk by means of faster settlement (0.5-8 hours instead of 5-24 hours), end-to-end visibility, and greater trust in the time-critical and reliability-demanding wholesale cross-border payment system. The settlement delays in the USC-based system are mainly associated with overburden regulatory compliance checks and direct participants’ desire to delay the final transfer in order to optimize the liquidity usage through the day.nhhma

MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELING OF THE INTEGRATION ACTIVITIES OF RUSSIAN COMPANIES IN THE DIFFERENT SECTORS OF RUSSIAN ECONOMY

This article proposes a worked out mathematical and statistical model of the Russian Federation economic sectors in 2008-2012 according to their level of integration activities on the basis of splitting mixtures of the probabilistic distributions. On the basis of the submitted analysis it is possible to work out measures of government policy for the purpose of growth of effectiveness of integration activities among different sectors of Russian economy