Assessing the impacts of global change on water quantity and quality: Large-scale modelling studies for Central Asia

Water resources in the semi-arid to arid areas of Central Asia are often limited by low precipitation, and hence vulnerable to impacts of global change, i.e. socio-economic development and climate change. Both, socio-economic development and climate change are very likely causing significant changes as water resources are affected by two main effects: Firstly, growing population and industrial activities in the region raise the pressure on water resources due to increasing water abstractions. Secondly, air temperature in the region has been rising in the past far above global average and it is expected to increase further, which will lead to changes in runoff generation and therefore water availability. Increasing temperature as well as increasing water abstractions will affect water quantity and consequently water quality as a result of higher pollution intake or reduction in dilution capacity. Thus, it is of crucial importance to analyse and assess the state of current and future water resources to implement sustainable water management as the above mentioned effects very likely causing significant changes of water resources. Within the last years, the number of scientific research studies using large-scale models to simulate water availability and water use has increased substantially. Several new datasets from earth observations and new or improved models have been published (Werth et al. 2009; Werth and Güntner 2010; van Beek et al. 2011). Nevertheless, those studies focussed on water quantity and did not take into account impacts on water quality induced by global change although changes in water quality affecting aquatic ecosystems and species. Furthermore, spatially explicit large-scale modelling studies have not been carried out for Mongolia and Central Asia to get a comprehensive overview and assessment. To address this research gap, the large-scale water resource modelling framework WaterGAP 3 was applied to Central Asia with a focus on Mongolia to simulate impacts on current and future water resources. WaterGAP 3 consists of hydrology, water use and water quality sub-models in order to simulate current and future water quantity and quality

HLA-DP on Epithelial Cells Enables Tissue Damage by NKp44+ Natural Killer Cells in Ulcerative Colitis

Background & aims: Ulcerative colitis (UC) is characterized by severe inflammation and destruction of the intestinal epithelium, and is associated with specific risk single nucleotide polymorphisms in HLA class II. Given the recently discovered interactions between subsets of HLA-DP molecules and the activating natural killer (NK) cell receptor NKp44, genetic associations of UC and HLA-DP haplotypes and their functional implications were investigated.Methods: HLA-DP haplotype and UC risk association analyses were performed (UC: n = 13,927; control: n = 26,764). Expression levels of HLA-DP on intestinal epithelial cells (IECs) in individuals with and without UC were quantified. Human intestinal 3-dimensional (3D) organoid cocultures with human NK cells were used to determine functional consequences of interactions between HLA-DP and NKp44.Results: These studies identified HLA-DPA1∗01:03-DPB1∗04:01 (HLA-DP401) as a risk haplotype and HLA-DPA1∗01:03-DPB1∗03:01 (HLA-DP301) as a protective haplotype for UC in European populations. HLA-DP expression was significantly higher on IECs of individuals with UC compared with controls. IECs in human intestinal 3D organoids derived from HLA-DP401pos individuals showed significantly stronger binding of NKp44 compared with HLA-DP301pos IECs. HLA-DP401pos IECs in organoids triggered increased degranulation and tumor necrosis factor production by NKp44+ NK cells in cocultures, resulting in enhanced epithelial cell death compared with HLA-DP301pos organoids. Blocking of HLA-DP401-NKp44 interactions (anti-NKp44) abrogated NK cell activity in cocultures.Conclusions: We identified an UC risk HLA-DP haplotype that engages NKp44 and activates NKp44+ NK cells, mediating damage to intestinal epithelial cells in an HLA-DP haplotype-dependent manner. The molecular interaction between NKp44 and HLA-DP401 in UC can be targeted by therapeutic interventions to reduce NKp44+ NK cell-mediated destruction of the intestinal epithelium in UC

HLA-DP on Epithelial Cells Enables Tissue Damage by NKp44+ Natural Killer Cells in Ulcerative Colitis

Background & aims: Ulcerative colitis (UC) is characterized by severe inflammation and destruction of the intestinal epithelium, and is associated with specific risk single nucleotide polymorphisms in HLA class II. Given the recently discovered interactions between subsets of HLA-DP molecules and the activating natural killer (NK) cell receptor NKp44, genetic associations of UC and HLA-DP haplotypes and their functional implications were investigated.Methods: HLA-DP haplotype and UC risk association analyses were performed (UC: n = 13,927; control: n = 26,764). Expression levels of HLA-DP on intestinal epithelial cells (IECs) in individuals with and without UC were quantified. Human intestinal 3-dimensional (3D) organoid cocultures with human NK cells were used to determine functional consequences of interactions between HLA-DP and NKp44.Results: These studies identified HLA-DPA1∗01:03-DPB1∗04:01 (HLA-DP401) as a risk haplotype and HLA-DPA1∗01:03-DPB1∗03:01 (HLA-DP301) as a protective haplotype for UC in European populations. HLA-DP expression was significantly higher on IECs of individuals with UC compared with controls. IECs in human intestinal 3D organoids derived from HLA-DP401pos individuals showed significantly stronger binding of NKp44 compared with HLA-DP301pos IECs. HLA-DP401pos IECs in organoids triggered increased degranulation and tumor necrosis factor production by NKp44+ NK cells in cocultures, resulting in enhanced epithelial cell death compared with HLA-DP301pos organoids. Blocking of HLA-DP401-NKp44 interactions (anti-NKp44) abrogated NK cell activity in cocultures.Conclusions: We identified an UC risk HLA-DP haplotype that engages NKp44 and activates NKp44+ NK cells, mediating damage to intestinal epithelial cells in an HLA-DP haplotype-dependent manner. The molecular interaction between NKp44 and HLA-DP401 in UC can be targeted by therapeutic interventions to reduce NKp44+ NK cell-mediated destruction of the intestinal epithelium in UC

Intestinal IL-1β Plays a Role in Protecting against SARS-CoV-2 Infection

The intestine is constantly balancing the maintenance of a homeostatic microbiome and the protection of the host against pathogens such as viruses. Many cytokines mediate protective inflammatory responses in the intestine, among them IL-1β. IL-1β is a proinflammatory cytokine typically activated upon specific danger signals sensed by the inflammasome. SARS-CoV-2 is capable of infecting multiple organs, including the intestinal tract. Severe cases of COVID-19 were shown to be associated with a dysregulated immune response, and blocking of proinflammatory pathways was demonstrated to improve patient survival. Indeed, anakinra, an Ab against the receptor of IL-1β, has recently been approved to treat patients with severe COVID-19. However, the role of IL-1β during intestinal SARS-CoV-2 infection has not yet been investigated. Here, we analyzed postmortem intestinal and blood samples from patients who died of COVID-19. We demonstrated that high levels of intestinal IL-1β were associated with longer survival time and lower intestinal SARS-CoV-2 RNA loads. Concurrently, type I IFN expression positively correlated with IL-1β levels in the intestine. Using human intestinal organoids, we showed that autocrine IL-1β sustains RNA expression of IFN type I by the intestinal epithelial layer. These results outline a previously unrecognized key role of intestinal IL-1β during SARS-CoV-2 infection

Assessing the impacts of global change on water quantity and quality: Large-scale modelling studies for Central Asia

Water resources in the semi-arid to arid areas of Central Asia are often limited by low precipitation, and hence vulnerable to impacts of global change, i.e. socio-economic development and climate change. Both, socio-economic development and climate change are very likely causing significant changes as water resources are affected by two main effects: Firstly, growing population and industrial activities in the region raise the pressure on water resources due to increasing water abstractions. Secondly, air temperature in the region has been rising in the past far above global average and it is expected to increase further, which will lead to changes in runoff generation and therefore water availability. Increasing temperature as well as increasing water abstractions will affect water quantity and consequently water quality as a result of higher pollution intake or reduction in dilution capacity. Thus, it is of crucial importance to analyse and assess the state of current and future water resources to implement sustainable water management as the above mentioned effects very likely causing significant changes of water resources. Within the last years, the number of scientific research studies using large-scale models to simulate water availability and water use has increased substantially. Several new datasets from earth observations and new or improved models have been published (Werth et al. 2009; Werth and Güntner 2010; van Beek et al. 2011). Nevertheless, those studies focussed on water quantity and did not take into account impacts on water quality induced by global change although changes in water quality affecting aquatic ecosystems and species. Furthermore, spatially explicit large-scale modelling studies have not been carried out for Mongolia and Central Asia to get a comprehensive overview and assessment. To address this research gap, the large-scale water resource modelling framework WaterGAP 3 was applied to Central Asia with a focus on Mongolia to simulate impacts on current and future water resources. WaterGAP 3 consists of hydrology, water use and water quality sub-models in order to simulate current and future water quantity and quality

Assessing the impacts of global change on water quantity and quality: Large-scale modelling studies for Central Asia

Water resources in the semi-arid to arid areas of Central Asia are often limited by low precipitation, and hence vulnerable to impacts of global change, i.e. socio-economic development and climate change. Both, socio-economic development and climate change are very likely causing significant changes as water resources are affected by two main effects: Firstly, growing population and industrial activities in the region raise the pressure on water resources due to increasing water abstractions. Secondly, air temperature in the region has been rising in the past far above global average and it is expected to increase further, which will lead to changes in runoff generation and therefore water availability. Increasing temperature as well as increasing water abstractions will affect water quantity and consequently water quality as a result of higher pollution intake or reduction in dilution capacity. Thus, it is of crucial importance to analyse and assess the state of current and future water resources to implement sustainable water management as the above mentioned effects very likely causing significant changes of water resources. Within the last years, the number of scientific research studies using large-scale models to simulate water availability and water use has increased substantially. Several new datasets from earth observations and new or improved models have been published (Werth et al. 2009; Werth and Güntner 2010; van Beek et al. 2011). Nevertheless, those studies focussed on water quantity and did not take into account impacts on water quality induced by global change although changes in water quality affecting aquatic ecosystems and species. Furthermore, spatially explicit large-scale modelling studies have not been carried out for Mongolia and Central Asia to get a comprehensive overview and assessment. To address this research gap, the large-scale water resource modelling framework WaterGAP 3 was applied to Central Asia with a focus on Mongolia to simulate impacts on current and future water resources. WaterGAP 3 consists of hydrology, water use and water quality sub-models in order to simulate current and future water quantity and quality

Water depletion: An improved metric for incorporating seasonal and dry-year water scarcity into water risk assessments

Abstract We present an improved water-scarcity metric we call water depletion, calculated as the fraction of renewable water consumptively used for human activities. We employ new data from the WaterGAP3 integrated global water resources model to illustrate water depletion for 15,091 watersheds worldwide, constituting 90% of total land area. Our analysis illustrates that moderate water depletion at an annual time scale is better characterized as high depletion at a monthly time scale and we are thus able to integrate seasonal and dry-year depletion into the water depletion metric, providing a more accurate depiction of water shortage that could affect irrigated agriculture, urban water supply, and freshwater ecosystems. Applying the metric, we find that the 2% of watersheds that are more than 75% depleted on an average annual basis are home to 15% of global irrigated area and 4% of large cities. An additional 30% of watersheds are depleted by more than 75% seasonally or in dry years. In total, 71% of world irrigated area and 47% of large cities are characterized as experiencing at least periodic water shortage

Reference concentrations of biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), faecal coliform bacteria (FC), and total dissolved solids (TDS) from published literature sources used for model validation

The attached table contains source information and measured concentrations of faecal coliform bacteria (FC), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), and total dissolved solids (TDS). These measurements come from published literature and constitute supplementary information for the manuscript mentioned in the reference (in this context, the data was used for model validation and testing). This dataset was used for the project “The world's water quality: A pre-study for a worldwide assessment” for which funding was provided by the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) and UN-Water

Modeled monthly surface water concentrations of fecal coliform bacteria, biochemical oxygen demand, and total dissolved solids in Asia, Africa, and Latin America in the period 1990-2010.

These datasets contain modeled monthly mean loadings and concentrations of faecal coliform bacteria (FC), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), and total dissolved solids (TDS) in river networks of Asia, Africa, and Latin America for the periods 1990-1992 and 2008-2010. These loadings and concentrations were estimated with WorldQual (part of the WaterGAP3 modeling framework) on a 5 arc-min resolution grid. These datasets were elaborated as part of the project “The world's water quality: A pre-study for a worldwide assessment” for which funding was provided by the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) and UN-Water. The datasets are supplementary for the manuscript mentioned in the reference