Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Antischistosomal Activity of the Terpene Nerolidol

Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease that affects hundreds of millions of people worldwide. Since the treatment of this disease currently relies on a single drug, praziquantel, new and safe schistosomicidal agents are urgently required. Nerolidol, a sesquiterpene present in the essential oils of several plants, is found in many foods and was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. In this study we analysed the in vitro antiparasitic effect of nerolidol on Schistosoma mansoni adult worms. Nerolidol at concentrations of 31.2 and 62.5 μM reduced the worm motor activity and caused the death of all male and female schistosomes, respectively. In addition, confocal laser scanning microscopy revealed morphological alterations on the tegument of worms such as disintegration, sloughing and erosion of the surface, and a correlation between viability and tegumental damage was observed. In conclusion, nerolidol may be a promising lead compound for the development of antischistosomal natural agents

Microstrip Fractal-based Phase Shifter

This paper presents the design and simulated results of a Phase Shifter where the delay lines have been designed using the Hilbert’s Fractal Line. Simulated results for fractal lines’ group delay and PIN diode switch are also presented. Using the fractal lines allowed for a much more compact design when compared to traditional delay lines. Phase shift simulated results are in good accordance with theory

Differentially expressed stress-related genes in the compatible citrus-Citrus leprosis virus interaction

Leprosis, caused by Citrus leprosis virus, cytoplasmic type (CiLV-C), is the main viral disease in the Brazilian citrus industry. This occurs because of the widespread source of inoculum and the year-round presence of the vector, the tenuipalpid mite Brevipalpus phoenicis, in citrus plants. In addition, while some Citrus species are resistant to CiLV-C, C. sinensis, the main cultivated species in the country, is extremely susceptible to the disease. The main objective of this work was to identify genes in C. sinensis cv. Pêra plants that were differentially expressed after the host was challenged with CiLV-C. In order to accomplish that, cDNA libraries were constructed from healthy and CiLV-inoculated sweet orange leaves. Two hundred and fifty-four genes were found to differ significantly in terms of expression, with 193 of them induced and 61 repressed after inoculation. Here we discuss the possible roles of a sub-set of these genes involved in metabolism, energy, signaling and cell rescue, defense and virulence, and indicate which kind of response may take place in the initial steps of the disease. Although the symptoms induced by CiLV-C in its compatible interaction with sweet orange resemble those of hypersensitive response (HR) in incompatible interactions, our data indicate that, apparently, the manifestation of leprosis symptoms should not be considered HR

Analysis of expressed sequence tags from Citrus sinensis L. Osbeck infected with Xylella fastidiosa

In order to understand the genetic responses resulting from physiological changes that occur in plants displaying citrus variegated chlorosis (CVC) symptoms, we adopted a strategy of comparing two EST libraries from sweet orange [Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck]. One of them was prepared with plants showing typical CVC symptoms caused by Xylella fastidiosa and the other with non-inoculated plants. We obtained 15,944 ESTs by sequencing the two cDNA libraries. Using an in silico hybridization strategy, 37 genes were found to have significant variation at the transcriptional level. Within this subset, 21 were up-regulated and 16 were down-regulated in plants with CVC. The main functional categories of the down-regulated transcripts in plants with CVC were associated with metabolism, protein modification, energy and transport facilitation. The majority of the up-regulated transcripts were associated with metabolism and defense response. Some transcripts associated with adaptation to stress conditions were up-regulated in plants with CVC and could explain why plants remain alive even under severe water and nutritional stress. Others of the up-regulated transcripts are related to defense response suggesting that sweet orange plants activate their defense machinery. The genes associated with stress response might be expressed as part of a secondary response related to physiological alterations caused by the infection