Validating a dynamic population microsimulation model: Recent experience in Australia

Available published research on microsimulation tends to focus on the results of policy simulations rather than upon validation of the models and their outputs. Dynamic population microsimulation models, which age an entire population through time for some decades, create particular validation challenges. This article outlines some of the issues that arise when attempting to validate dynamic population models, including changing behaviour, the need to align results with other aggregate ‘official’ projections, data quality and useability. Drawing on recent experience with the construction of the new Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model (APPSIM), the article discusses the techniques being used to validate this new dynamic population microsimulation model.Dynamic microsimulation, validation, model output, usability

Hydrogels for Regenerative Medicine

Regenerative medicine requires materials that are biodegradable, biocompatible, structurally and chemically stable, and that can mimic the properties of the native extracellular matrix (ECM). Hydrogels are hydrophilic three-dimensional networks that have long received attention in the field of regenerative medicine due to their unique properties. Hydrogels have a potential to be the future of regenerative medicine due to their desirable mechanical and chemical properties, ease of their synthesis, and their multiple applicability as drug delivery vehicles, scaffolds, and constructs for cell culture. In this chapter, we have described hydrogels in terms of their cross-linking and then discussed the most recent developments in the use of hydrogels for peripheral nerve regeneration, tooth regeneration, and 3D bioprinting

Guest Artist Series:Marcia Spence, Horn Dan Willett, Oboe Simon Sargon, Piano

Kemp Recital Hall Friday Evening October 8, 2004 6:00p.m

Construccion de un prototipo sobre la base de indicadores de gestion y tecnologia OLAP para el apoyo a la toma de decisiones en el area de operacion comercial en Aguas Nuevo Sur del Maule S.A

89 p.La Empresa Aguas Nuevo Sur del Maule S.A. (ANSMI S.A.), como toda empresa, determina objetivos estratégicos para guiar su gestión, los cuales deben estar directamente relacionados con los objetivos de cada área funcional. Dentro de la organización de la empresa, se encuentra el área de Servicio al Cliente la que se divide en dos sub-áreas que son: Subgerencia de Operación Comercial y Subgerencia de Desarrollo Comercial. El presente proyecto se desarrolla sobre la Subgerencia de Operación Comercial. Ella utiliza como base los objetivos estratégicos definidos por la empresa para definir sus propias metas. El cumplimiento de estas, se mide a través de un conjunto de Indicadores de Gestión que se enmarca dentro de un proceso de Control de Gestión, el que permite monitorear el proceso de Plantación Estratégica y determinar las desviaciones para poder tomar las medidas correctivas que correspondan. La finalidad del proyecto consiste en desarrollar el prototipo de un sistema informático de apoyo a la toma de decisiones que permita obtener el conjunto de indicadores conducentes a evaluar el cumplimiento de los objetivos planteados para el área de Operación Comercial en ANSM S.A. El conjunto de indicadores debe conformar una familia coherente de criterios, la cual cumpla con las condiciones de: Exhaustividad, Cohesión y No Redundancia (Bernard, 1996). Con ello se espera que el conjunto de indicadores sea suficiente para medir el cumplimiento de los objetivos del área en cuestión, para tomar las decisiones necesarias que permitan lograr los resultados deseados

4×170 Gbit/s DWDM/OTDM transmission using only one quantum dash Fabry Perot mode-locked laser

oral session 6.C "High Bit-Rate Transmission"International audienceWe demonstrate a 4×170 Gbit/s DWDM/OTDM transmission experiment using only one quantum dash Fabry-Perot mode-locked laser. BER measurements show a penalty of 1dB at BER=10^-9 for back-to-back and error floor for BER=10^-8 for transmission over 100 km

A criação de animações de mecanismos de reações orgânicas como método de ensino

Vizualização científica é uma técnica bem conhecida para ilustrar graficamente dados obtidos de trabalho cientíco. A criação de imagens maravilhosas e sua animação combinando ciência e artes visuais inspira atenção e curiosidade em assuntos de alta complexidade. Ao longo do tempo nós desenvolvemos um modelo para estudar mecanismos de reações químicas usando visualização científica para alunos de ensino médio. A demosnstração de um experimento em tempo real  in vitro é seguida por uma discussão de como, quando e porquê átomos são rearranjados em novas moléculas dos produtos. Coloca-se assim as questões científicas e a motivação para responde-las emerge da criação de uma animação 3D baseada nas variações das superficies de densidade eletrônica dos components do Sistema indo de reagents aos produtos. As questões são apresentadas no contexto de um problema científico e não para obter uma resposta para um mecanismo expecífico. Elas emergem da fusão dos mecanismos bem estudados na literatura com os trabalhos computacionais e observações feitas nos experimentos. A animação resultante é pura magia e assuntos como cinética e termodinâmica de reações químicas são colocados para estudo de maneira gradual e simples. Um semester normal de atividades pode produzir resultados satisfatórios independentemente do conhecimento prévio destes assuntos. Adicionalmente o modelo promove o contato com alguns dos fundamentos de química quântica e com algumas técnicas básicas de modelagem molecular. Um dos objetivos alcançado pelo método é a consolidaçao de um paladar científico, uma intuição e um apreço grande pelo bom senso muito útil à vida científica. Também podemos enumerar como resultados: 1) a importância do contato com o fenômeno real, não importando sua complexidade; 2) o uso da visualização de conceitos abstratos, é sempre melhor que só a matemática; 3) não há contra-indicações.Scientific visualization is a well-known technique to graphically illustrate data from scientific work. The creation of dramatic images and their animation which combines science and the visual art can inspire attention and curiosity for complex subjects. Over the time we developed a model to study chemical reaction mechanism using scientific visualization for high school level students. The demonstration of a real time in vitro experiment is followed by a discussion of how, when and why atoms are rearranged in the new molecules of the products. A scientific question is stated, and motivation for answering emerges from the creation of a 3D animation based on the changes of electronic density molecular surfaces, going from reactants to products. The question is presented in the context of a scientific problem and not as an answer to specific mechanism proposals. We consider questions raised by well-established knowledge in the literature and use it to address questions suggested by the observation of both in vitro and in silico processes. The animation itself is pure magic and subjects such as kinetics and thermodynamics of chemical reactions are addressed in a gradual manner. One semester of regular activity can produce satisfactory results, very independently of previous knowledge in that matter. This model allows comprehensive contact with some basic principles of quantum chemistry and molecular modeling techniques. One of the main goals achieved were to develop some scientific feeling and a kind of intuition based on good sense, very useful in the scientific work. The other observations are: 1) the importance of real experiments no mater its complexity degree; 2) visualization of abstract concepts is always better than mathematics only; 3) there are no contraindications

Dose-response effects of exercise on mental health in community-dwelling older adults: Exploration of genetic moderators

Background/Objective: (1) Examine the role of exercise intensity on mental health symptoms in a community-based sample of older adults. (2) Explore the moderating role of genetic variation in brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and apolipoprotein E (APOE) on the effects of exercise on mental health symptoms. Method: This study is a secondary analysis of a three-arm randomized controlled trial, comparing the effects of 6 months of high-intensity aerobic training vs. moderate-intensity aerobic training vs. a no-contact control group on mental health symptoms assessed using the Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale (DASS). The BDNF Val66Met polymorphism and APOE 4 carrier status were explored as genetic moderators of exercise effects on mental health symptoms. Results: The exercise intervention did not influence mental health symptoms. The BDNF Val66Met polymorphism did not moderate intervention effects on mental health symptoms. APOE 4 carrier status moderated the effect of intervention group on perceived stress over 6 months, such that APOE 4 carriers, but not non-carriers, in the high-intensity aerobic training group showed a decline in perceived stress over 6 months. Conclusions: APOE 4 carrier status may modify the benefits of high-intensity exercise on perceived stress such that APOE 4 carriers show a greater decline in stress as a result of exercise relative to non-APOE 4 carriers

Low-Voltage Polymer/Small-Molecule Blend Organic Thin-Film Transistors and Circuits Fabricated via Spray Deposition

Organic thin-film electronics have long been considered an enticing candidate in achieving high-throughput manufacturing of low-power ubiquitous electronics. However, to achieve this goal, more work is required to reduce operating voltages and develop suitable mass-manufacture techniques. Here, we demonstrate low-voltage spray-cast organic thin-film transistors based on a semiconductor blend of 2,8-difluoro- 5,11-bis (triethylsilylethynyl) anthradithiophene and poly(triarylamine). Both semiconductor and dielectric films are deposited via successive spray deposition in ambient conditions (air with 40%–60% relative humidity) without any special precautions. Despite the simplicity of the deposition method, p-channel transistors with hole mobilities of \u3e1 cm2/Vs are realized at −4 V operation, and unipolar inverters operating at −6 V are demonstrated