Investigation of Super Learner Methodology on HIV-1 Small Sample: Application on Jaguar Trial Data

Background. Many statistical models have been tested to predict phenotypic or virological response from genotypic data. A statistical framework called Super Learner has been introduced either to compare different methods/learners (discrete Super Learner) or to combine them in a Super Learner prediction method. Methods. The Jaguar trial is used to apply the Super Learner framework. The Jaguar study is an “add-on” trial comparing the efficacy of adding didanosine to an on-going failing regimen. Our aim was also to investigate the impact on the use of different cross-validation strategies and different loss functions. Four different repartitions between training set and validations set were tested through two loss functions. Six statistical methods were compared. We assess performance by evaluating R (2) values and accuracy by calculating the rates of patients being correctly classified. Results. Our results indicated that the more recent Super Learner methodology of building a new predictor based on a weighted combination of different methods/learners provided good performance. A simple linear model provided similar results to those of this new predictor. Slight discrepancy arises between the two loss functions investigated, and slight difference arises also between results based on cross-validated risks and results from full dataset. The Super Learner methodology and linear model provided around 80% of patients correctly classified. The difference between the lower and higher rates is around 10 percent. The number of mutations retained in different learners also varys from one to 41. Conclusions. The more recent Super Learner methodology combining the prediction of many learners provided good performance on our small dataset

Caution is needed in interpreting HIV transmission chains by ultradeep sequencing.

OBJECTIVES: Molecular epidemiology is applied to various aspects of HIV transmission analyses. With ultradeep sequencing (UDS), in-depth characterization of transmission episodes involving minority variants is permitted. We explored HIV-1 epidemiological linkage and evaluated characteristics of transmission dynamics and transmitted drug resistance (TDR) detection through the added value of UDS. DESIGN: HIV pol gene fragments were sequenced by UDS and Sanger sequencing on samples of 70 HIV-1-infected, treatment-naive recently diagnosed MSM. METHODS: Pairwise genetic distances and maximum likelihood phylogenies were computed. Transmission events were identified as clades with branch support at least 70% and intraclade genetic difference less than 4.5%. TDR mutations were recognized from the TDR consensus list. Transmission directionality, directness and inoculum size were inferred from tree topologies. RESULTS: Both datasets concurred in the identification of seven transmission pairs and one cluster of three patients. With UDS, direction of transmission was inferred in four out of eight chains. Evidence for multiple founder viruses was found in two out of eight chains. No transmission of minority-resistant variants was evidenced. TDR mutations prevalence in protease and reverse transcriptase fragments was 4.3% with Sanger sequencing and 18.6% with UDS. CONCLUSION: Although Sanger sequencing and UDS identified the same transmission chains, UDS provided additional information on founder viruses, direction of transmission and levels of TDR. Nevertheless, topology of clusters was not always consistent across gene fragments, calling for a cautious interpretation of the data. Moreover, unobserved intermediary links cannot be excluded. Phylogenetic analysis use as a forensic technique for HIV transmission investigations is risky

Predicted antiviral activity of tenofovir versus abacavir in combination with a cytosine analogue and the integrase inhibitor dolutegravir in HIV-1-infected South African patients initiating or failing first-line ART.

OBJECTIVES: The WHO recently recommended the use of a new first-line ART containing dolutegravir. We investigated the efficacy of NRTI backbones (tenofovir or abacavir with a cytosine analogue) in low- and middle-income countries where there is significant prior exposure to antiretrovirals and drug resistance to NRTIs. METHODS: Within the treatment-as-prevention study in South Africa, we selected participants with available next-generation sequencing (NGS) data for the HIV-1 pol gene at trial entry; they were either ART initiators (n = 1193) or already established on ART (n = 94). NGS of the HIV-1 pol gene was carried out using MiSeq technology; reverse transcriptase drug resistance mutations (DRMs) were detected at 5% (DRM5%) and 20% (DRM20%) for all 1287 participants. Genotypic susceptibility was assessed using the Stanford HIVDB resistance interpretation algorithm. RESULTS: NRTI DRM20% and DRM5% were detected among 5/1193 (0.4%) and 9/1193 (0.8%) of ART initiators, respectively. There was tenofovir exposure in 73/94 (77.7%) of those established on ART, with full susceptibility to abacavir in 57/94 (60.6%) and 56/94 (59.6%) for DRM20% and DRM5%, respectively, while 67/94 (71.3%) and 64/94 (68.1%) were fully susceptible to tenofovir, respectively. The differences between tenofovir and abacavir were not statistically significant at the 20% or 5% variant level (P = 0.16 and 0.29, respectively). NGS detection of variants at the 5% level increased detection of K65R in both naive and treated groups. One of 607 integrase sequences carried a DRM20% (Q148R). CONCLUSIONS: Dolutegravir with a cytosine analogue plus tenofovir or abacavir appears to have similar efficacy in South Africans naive to ART. NGS should be considered in HIV drug resistance surveillance

In Silico

Most antiretroviral medical treatments were developed and tested principally on HIV-1 B nonrecombinant strain, which represents less than 10% of the worldwide HIV-1-infected population. HIV-1 circulating recombinant form CRF02_AG is prevalent in West Africa and is becoming more frequent in other countries. Previous studies suggested that the HIV-1 polymorphisms might be associated to variable susceptibility to antiretrovirals. This study is pointed to compare the susceptibility to integrase (IN) inhibitors of HIV-1 subtype CRF02_AG IN respectively to HIV-1 B. Structural models of B and CRF02_AG HIV-1 INs as unbound enzymes and in complex with the DNA substrate were built by homology modeling. IN inhibitors—raltegravir (RAL), elvitegravir (ELV) and L731,988—were docked onto the models, and their binding affinity for both HIV-1 B and CRF02_AG INs was compared. CRF02_AG INs were cloned and expressed from plasma of integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-naïve infected patients. Our in silico and in vitro studies showed that the sequence variations between the INs of CRF02_AG and B strains did not lead to any notable difference in the structural features of the enzyme and did not impact the susceptibility to the IN inhibitors. The binding modes and affinities of INSTI inhibitors to B and CRF02_AG INs were found to be similar. Although previous studies suggested that several naturally occurring variations of CRF02_AG IN might alter either IN/vDNA interactions or INSTIs binding, our study demonstrate that these variations do affect neither IN activity nor its susceptibility to INSTIs

Viral suppression and HIV-1 drug resistance 1 year after pragmatic transitioning to dolutegravir first-line therapy in Malawi: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND Many countries are now replacing non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) with a regimen containing tenofovir disoproxil fumarate, lamivudine, and dolutegravir (TLD). Recognising laboratory limitations, Malawi opted to transition those on NNRTI-based first-line ART to TLD without viral load testing. We aimed to assess viral load and HIV drug resistance during 1 year following transition to TLD without previous viral load testing. METHODS In this prospective cohort study, we monitored 1892 adults transitioning from NNRTI-based first-line ART to the TLD regimen in the Médecins Sans Frontières-supported decentralised HIV programme in Chiradzulu District, Malawi. Eligible adults were enrolled between Jan 17 and May 11, 2019, at Ndunde and Milepa health centres, and between March 8 and May 11, 2019, at the Boma clinic. Viral load at the start of the TLD regimen was assessed retrospectively and measured at month 3, 6, and 12, and additionally at month 18 for those ever viraemic (viral load ≥50 copies per mL). Dolutegravir minimal plasma concentrations (Cmin) were determined for individuals with viraemia. Drug-resistance testing was done at the start of TLD regimen and at viral failure (viral load ≥50 copies per mL, followed by viral load ≥500 copies per mL; resistance defined as Stanford score ≥15). FINDINGS Of 1892 participants who transitioned to the TLD regimen, 101 (5·3%) were viraemic at TLD start. 89 of 101 had drug-resistance testing with 31 participants (34·8%) with Lys65Arg mutation, 48 (53·9%) with Met184Val/Ile, and 42 (40·4%) with lamivudine and tenofovir disoproxil fumerate dual resistance. At month 12 (in the per-protocol population), 1725 (97·9% [95% CI 97·1-98·5]) of 1762 had viral loads of less than 50 copies per mL, including 83 (88·3% [80·0-94·0]) of 94 of those who were viraemic at baseline. At month 18, 35 (97·2% [85·5-99·9]) of 36 who were viraemic at TLD start with lamivudine and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate resistance and 27 (81·8% [64·5-93·0]) of 33 of those viraemic at baseline without resistance had viral load suppression. 14 of 1838 with at least two viral load tests upon transitioning had viral failure (all with at least one dolutegravir Cmin value <640 ng/mL; active threshold), suggesting suboptimal adherence. High baseline viral load was associated with viral failure (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 14·1 [2·3-87·4] for 1000 to <10 000 copies per mL; aOR 64·4 [19·3-215·4] for ≥10 000 copies per mL). Two people with viral failure had dolutegravir resistance at 6 months (Arg263Lys or Gly118Arg mutation), both were viraemic with lamivudine and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate resistance at baseline. INTERPRETATION High viral load suppression 1 year after introduction of the TLD regimen supports the unconditional transition strategy in Malawi. However, high pre-transition viral load, ongoing adherence challenges, and possibly existing nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor resistance can lead to rapid development of dolutegravir resistance in a few individuals. This finding highlights the importance of viral load monitoring and dolutegravir-resistance surveillance after mass transitioning to the TLD regimen. FUNDING Médecins Sans Frontières. TRANSLATIONS For the French and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section

Characterization update of HIV-1 M subtypes diversity and proposal for subtypes A and D sub-subtypes reclassification.

BACKGROUND: The large and constantly evolving HIV-1 pandemic has led to an increasingly complex diversity. Because of some taxonomic difficulties among the most diverse HIV-1 subtypes, and taking advantage of the large amount of sequence data generated in the recent years, we investigated novel lineage patterns among the main HIV-1 subtypes. RESULTS: All HIV full-length genomes available in public databases were analysed (n = 2017). Maximum likelihood phylogenies and pairwise genetic distance were obtained. Clustering patterns and mean distributions of genetic distances were compared within and across the current groups, subtypes and sub-subtypes of HIV-1 to detect and analyse any divergent lineages within previously defined HIV lineages. The level of genetic similarity observed between most HIV clades was deeply consistent with the current classification. However, both subtypes A and D showed evidence of further intra-subtype diversification not fully described by the nomenclature system at the time and could be divided into several distinct sub-subtypes. CONCLUSIONS: With this work, we propose an updated nomenclature of sub-types A and D better reflecting their current genetic diversity and evolutionary patterns. Allowing a more accurate nomenclature and classification system is a necessary step for easier subtyping of HIV strains and a better detection or follow-up of viral epidemiology shifts

Prevalence of HIV-1 drug resistance in treated patients with viral load >50 copies/mL in 2009: a French nationwide study

Background Surveillance of HIV-1 drug resistance in treated patients with plasma viral load (VL) >50 copies/mL. Methods The protease and reverse transcriptase (RT) genes were systematically sequenced in samples from 756 patients with VL >50 copies/mL in 2009. The genotyping results were interpreted for each antiretroviral drug (ARV) by using the ANRS algorithm v21. Weighted analyses were used to derive representative estimates of percentages of patients. Prevalence rates were compared with those obtained in 2004 among patients with VL >1000 copies/mL. Results Sequences were obtained for 506 patients. Sequencing was successful in 45%, 80% and 96% of samples with VL of 51-500, 501-1000 and >1000 copies/mL, respectively. Resistance or possible resistance to at least one ARV was observed in 59% of samples. Overall, 0.9% of samples contained viruses resistant to all drugs belonging to at least three drug classes. All resistance prevalence rates were significantly lower in 2009 than in 2004. Conclusion In France, where 86% of patients were receiving combination antiretroviral therapy in 2009, only 15.0% of patients had a VL >50 copies/mL, suggesting that only 8.9% of treated patients could potentially transmit resistant viruses. Only 0.08% of patients harboured viruses fully resistant to at least three antiretroviral drug classes. Further studies are needed to determine whether resistance continues to decline over tim

High clustering of acute HCV infections and high rate of associated STIs among Parisian HIV-positive male patients.

BACKGROUND: Increasing incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive men having sex with men (MSM) has been described in recent years. Phylogenetic analyses of acute HCV infections were undertaken to characterize the dynamics during the epidemic in Paris, and associated sexually transmitted infections (STIs) were evaluated. METHODS: Sanger sequencing of polymerase gene was performed. Maximum likelihood phylogenies were reconstructed using FastTree 2.1 under a GTR+CAT model. Transmission chains were defined as clades with a branch probability ≥0.80 and intraclade genetic distances <0.02 nucleotide substitutions per sites. STIs detected ≤1 month before HCV diagnosis were considered. RESULTS: Among the 85 studied patients, at least 81.2% were MSM. Respectively, 47.6%, 39.0%, 11.0% and 2.4% were infected with genotypes 1a, 4d, 3a and 2k. At least 91.8% were co-infected with HIV. HCV re-infection was evidenced for 24.7% of patients and STIs for 20.0% of patients. Twenty-two transmission chains were identified, including 52 acute hepatitis C (11 pairs and 11 clusters from three to seven patients). CONCLUSIONS: These results revealed strong clustering of acute HCV infections. Thus, rapid treatment of both chronic and acute infections is needed among this population to decrease the prevalence of HCV, in combination with preventive behavioural interventions

HIV-1-infected patients from the French National Observatory experiencing virological failure while receiving enfuvirtide

Objectives We studied gp41 mutations associated with failing enfuvirtide salvage therapy. Methods This multicentre study involved patients with HIV-1 plasma viral load (pVL) > 5000 copies/mL after at least 3 months of uninterrupted enfuvirtide therapy and with plasma samples available at inclusion (T0), at initial enfuvirtide failure (T1) and at last follow-up visit during continued failing enfuvirtide therapy (T2). The HR-1 and HR-2 domains of the gp41 gene were sequenced at T0, T1 and T2. Results Ninety-nine patients were enrolled. At baseline, the median pVL and CD4 cell count were 5.1 log copies/mL and 72 cells/mm3, respectively. Based on the ANRS Resistance Group algorithm, the proportion of patients harbouring viruses with enfuvirtide resistance mutations increased significantly between T0 and T1. In the HR-1 domain, the V38A/M, Q40H, N42T, N43D and L45M mutations wereselected (P < 0.02). In the HR-2 domain, no mutations were significantly selected during the follow-up. None of the mutations was associated with a CD4 cell count increment. Conclusions Mutations selected during failing enfuvirtide salvage therapy are mainly located in the HR-1 domain of the gp41 gene, between codons 38 and 45. No mutations were associated with an increase in the CD4 cell coun

Impact of next-generation sequencing defined human immunodeficiency virus pretreatment drug resistance on virological outcomes in the ANRS 12249 treatment-as-prevention trial

Background Previous studies in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive individuals on thymidine analogue backbone antiretroviral therapy (ART) with either nevirapine or efavirenz have suggested poorer virological outcomes in the presence of pretreatment drug resistance (PDR). We assessed the impact of PDR on virological suppression (VS; <50 copies/mL) in individuals prescribed primarily tenofovir/emtricitabine/efavirenz in rural KwaZulu-Natal within a treatment-as-prevention trial. Methods Among 1557 HIV-positive individuals who reported no prior ART at study entry and provided plasma samples, 1328 individuals with entry viral load (VL) >1000 copies/mL had next-generation sequencing (NGS) of the HIV pol gene with MiSeq technology. Results were obtained for 1148 individuals, and the presence of PDR was assessed at 5% and 20% detection thresholds. Virological outcome was assessed using Cox regression in 837 of 920 ART initiators with at least 1 follow-up VL after ART initiation. Results PDR prevalence was 9.5% (109/1148) and 12.8% (147/1148) at 20% and 5% thresholds, respectively. After a median of 1.36 years (interquartile range, 0.91–2.13), mostly on fixed-dose combination tenofovir/emtricitabine/efavirenz, presence of both nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)/nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor PDR vs no PDR was associated with longer time to VS (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.12–0.86), while there was no difference between those with only NNRTI PDR vs no PDR (aHR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.82–1.34) at the 5% threshold. Similar differences were observed for mutations detected at the 20% threshold, although without statistical significance. Conclusions NGS uncovered a high prevalence of PDR among participants enrolled in trial clinics in rural KwaZulu-Natal. Dual-class PDR to a mainly tenofovir/emtricitabine/efavirenz regimen was associated with poorer VS. However, there was no impact of NNRTI PDR alone