The value-added of primary schools: what is it really measuring?

This paper compares the official value-added scores in 2005 for all primary schools in three adjacent LEAs in England with the raw-score Key Stage 2 results for the same schools. The correlation coefficient for the raw- and value-added scores of these 457 schools is around +0.75. Scatterplots show that there are no low attaining schools with average or higher value-added, and no high attaining schools with below average value-added. At least some of the remaining scatter is explained by the small size of some schools. Although some relationship between these measures is to be expected – so that schools adding considerable value would tend to have high examination outcome scores – the relationship shown is too strong for this explanation to be considered sufficient. Value-added analysis is intended to remove the link between a schools’ intake scores and their raw-score outcomes at KS2. It should lead to an estimate of the differential progress made by pupils, assessed between schools. In fact, however, the relationship between value-added and raw scores is of the same size as the original relationship between intake scores and raw-scores that the value-added is intended to overcome. Therefore, however appealing the calculation of value-added figures is, their development is still at the stage where they are not ready to move from being a research tool to an instrument of judgement on schools. Such figures may mislead parents, governors and teachers and, even more importantly, they are being used in England by OFSTED to pre-determine the results of school inspections

If it Matters, Measure it: Unpacking Diversification in Canada

Will greater diversification benefit our economy? While many think it will, few are explicit about what they mean by diversification or what an “ideal” level would be. Even fewer recognize that favoured policies to promote diversification could actually do more harm than good. There are many ways to measure diversification in Canada, and each measure tells a different story. Canada’s GDP and employment, for example, are more diverse than many other countries, including the U.S.  Employment is also more diversified today than at any point in its recent history, even in resource-rich provinces. Perhaps surprisingly, Alberta and Saskatchewan lead the country in employment diversity. Even accounting for non-resource jobs that are indirectly linked to resources does not reveal resource-rich provinces to be less diverse than others. To be sure, by other measures they are less diverse and more volatile, so we gather and analyze a wealth of data to paint a full, nuanced, and sometimes surprising picture of diversification in Canada. But does diversification even matter? Economists, for centuries, have found gains from specializing in areas where we have a comparative advantage. Subsidizing certain selected industries therefore risks causing economic damage by distorting activity and displacing workers and investment from more valuable uses. Policy-makers should therefore focus on neutral policies: create a favorable investment climate, facilitate adjustment and re-training, encourage savings (including by government), and so on. We discuss the pros and cons of various options. At the end of the day, responsible governments must define their objectives clearly, and recognize the costs of policies meant to achieve those objectives. We cannot hope to have a sensible debate on economic policy without full and complete information. If it matters, measure it

Uranium(III) coordination chemistry and oxidation in a flexible small-cavity macrocycle

U(III) complexes of the conformationally flexible, small-cavity macrocycle trans-calix[2]benzene[2]pyrrolide (L)2–, [U(L)X] (X = O-2,6-tBu2C6H3, N(SiMe3)2), have been synthesized from [U(L)BH4] and structurally characterized. These complexes show binding of the U(III) center in the bis(arene) pocket of the macrocycle, which flexes to accommodate the increase in the steric bulk of X, resulting in long U–X bonds to the ancillary ligands. Oxidation to the cationic U(IV) complex [U(L)X][B(C6F5)4] (X = BH4) results in ligand rearrangement to bind the smaller, harder cation in the bis(pyrrolide) pocket, in a conformation that has not been previously observed for (L)2–, with X located between the two ligand arene rings

Public-Interest Benefit Evaluation of Partial- Upgrading Technology

Approximately 60 per cent of Alberta’s oil sands production is non-upgraded bitumen which, after being mixed with a diluting agent (diluent) to allow transport, is exported. A popular view within Alberta — and particularly among Albertan politicians — is that a much larger share of oil sands bitumen should be upgraded in the province. However, without public subsidies or government underwriting, it is uneconomic to build and operate new facilities in Alberta to fully upgrade the bitumen into synthetic crude oil. But there are new partial upgrading technologies being developed that, subject to successful testing at a larger (commercial) pilot scale, can prove to be not only economic in Alberta, but also generate large social and economic benefits for the province. The advantages include a much smaller capital investment, a significant increase in the value of the product and market for the product and, even more importantly, a dramatic reduction in the need for large amounts of expensive diluent to transport the product to market. Indeed, the only diluent required will be that to move the bitumen from the production site to the partial upgrader and this can be continually recycled. The market for the synthetic crude oil produced by full upgrading is only getting tougher. Any Alberta bitumen fully upgraded here would compete closely with the rapidly expanding supply of light U.S. unconventional oil. Partial upgrading does not upgrade bitumen to a light crude, but to something resembling more of a medium or heavy crude, and at a lower cost per barrel than full upgrading. Unlike in the increasingly crowded light-crude market, the Alberta Royalty Review Advisory Panel recognized that currently there are gaps in several North American refineries that could be filled by this partially upgraded Alberta oil. A partial upgrader serving that less-competitive market not only appears to hold the potential for investors to make attractive returns in the long term, it would also provide important benefits to Alberta from a social perspective. Since partially upgraded crude can be shipped via pipeline without diluent (as bitumen requires), producing it in Alberta would free up pipeline capacity otherwise tied up by current volumes of diluted bitumen or dilbit (diluent typically represents about one-third of each barrel of dilbit). It also reduces the cost to shippers of paying tolls for diluent exported in the dilbit and recovering diluent at the U.S. pipeline terminal, where it is less valuable than if it were recovered in Alberta at the partial upgrader. The value of each barrel produced would also be higher, benefitting oil sands producers. Partial upgrading also seems to promise a lower emissions-intensity profile compared to other bitumen-processing technologies. Based on the model of a single 100,000-barrel-a-day partial upgrader, the value uplift could be $10 to$15 per bitumen barrel. Meanwhile, there could be an average annual increase to Alberta’s GDP of $505 million, and as many as 179,000 person-years of employment created (assuming a 40.5-year operating period). The increase in taxable earnings would increase provincial revenues by an average of$60 million a year, not including additional federal tax revenues. If successful, there would be many such partial upgraders with corresponding multiplication of these benefits. But there remains the critical task of proving partial upgrading technology at a higher scale than current testing. This might also depend on the province helping sustain investors through the “death-valley” between successful research and initial testing and demonstration of full commercial viability. The province has stepped into help technologies cross that “death valley” before. The promise of partial upgrading may well justify, as manager and steward of Alberta’s resources, helping bridge that valley again

Size, Role and Performance in the Oil and Gas Sector

The oil and gas sector is a key driver of the Canadian and Albertan economies. Directly and indirectly it typically accounts for roughly half of Alberta’s GDP, as well as one-third of the country’s business investment and a quarter of business profits — and rising global demand will only add to these figures. However, that energy sector is also a changeable place populated by companies of all shapes and sizes, from small Emerging Juniors to wellestablished Majors whose daily production capacities are hundreds or thousands of times greater. The sector’s assorted firms have different structures and ambitions, respond in distinct ways to market forces and have unique impacts on the economy. These differences in size, role and performance must be reflected in energy and related economic policies if they are to be effective in achieving policy goals. For example, they must recognize that the smallest firms are not always the fastest growers or the most innovative; that Intermediates are the most highly leveraged, with the highest debt-to-equity ratios; and that while Majors tend to have the lowest average cost per well drilled, they also (along with Emerging Juniors) have the highest operating costs. Despite the industry’s critical importance, relatively little hard data has been made available concerning companies’ structure, behaviour and performance, based on size. This paper goes a considerable way toward filling that gap, bringing together comprehensive datasets on 340 public oil and gas firms to chart essential patterns and trends, so policymakers and industry watchers can better understand the complexity and functioning of this important sector

Depolarization of sperm membrane potential is a common feature of men with subfertility and is associated with low fertilization rate at IVF

STUDY QUESTION. Are significant abnormalities in outward (K+) conductance and resting membrane potential (Vm) present in the spermatozoa of patients undertaking IVF and ICSI and if so, what is their functional effect on fertilization success? SUMMARY ANSWER. Negligible outward conductance (≈5% of patients) or an enhanced inward conductance (≈4% of patients), both of which caused depolarization of Vm, were associated with a low rate of fertilization following IVF. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY. Sperm-specific potassium channel knockout mice are infertile with defects in sperm function, suggesting that these channels are essential for fertility. These observations suggest that malfunction of K+ channels in human spermatozoa might contribute significantly to the occurrence of subfertility in men. However, remarkably little is known of the nature of K+ channels in human spermatozoa or the incidence and functional consequences of K+ channel defects. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE AND DURATION. Spermatozoa were obtained from healthy volunteer research donors and subfertile IVF and ICSI patients attending a hospital assisted reproductive techniques clinic between May 2013 and December 2015. In total, 40 IVF patients, 41 ICSI patients and 26 normozoospermic donors took part in the study. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS. Samples were examined using electrophysiology (whole-cell patch clamping). Where abnormal electrophysiological characteristics were identified, spermatozoa were further examined for Ca2+ influx induced by progesterone and penetration into viscous media if sufficient sample was available. Full exome sequencing was performed to specifically evaluate potassium calcium-activated channel subfamily M α 1 (KCNMA1), potassium calcium-activated channel subfamily U member 1 (KCNU1) and leucine-rich repeat containing 52 (LRRC52) genes and others associated with K+ signalling. In IVF patients, comparison with fertilization rates was done to assess the functional significance of the electrophysiological abnormalities. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE. Patch clamp electrophysiology was used to assess outward (K+) conductance and resting membrane potential (Vm) and signalling/motility assays were used to assess functional characteristics of sperm from IVF and ICSI patient samples. The mean Vm and outward membrane conductance in sperm from IVF and ICSI patients were not significantly different from those of control (donor) sperm prepared under the same conditions, but variation between individuals was significantly greater (P< 0.02) with a large number of outliers (>25%). In particular, in ≈10% of patients (7/81), we observed either a negligible outward conductance (4 patients) or an enhanced inward current (3 patients), both of which caused depolarization of Vm. Analysis of clinical data from the IVF patients showed significant association of depolarized Vm (≥0 mV) with low fertilization rate (P= 0.012). Spermatozoa with electrophysiological abnormities (conductance and Vm) responded normally to progesterone with elevation of [Ca2+]i and penetration of viscous medium, indicating retention of cation channel of sperm (CatSper) channel function. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION. For practical, technical, ethical and logistical reasons, we could not obtain sufficient additional semen samples from men with conductance abnormalities to establish the cause of the conductance defects. Full exome sequencing was only available in two men with conductance defects. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS. These data add significantly to the understanding of the role of ion channels in human sperm function and its impact on male fertility. Impaired potassium channel conductance (Gm) and/or Vm regulation is both common and complex in human spermatozoa and importantly is associated with impaired fertilization capacity when the Vm of cells is completely depolarized

Causal mechanisms in the clinical course and treatment of back pain

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in studying causal mechanisms in the development and treatment of back pain. The aim of this article is to provide an overview of our current understanding of causal mechanisms in the field. In the first section, we introduce key concepts and terminology. In the second section, we provide a brief synopsis of systematic reviews of mechanism studies relevant to the clinical course and treatment of back pain. In the third section, we reflect on the findings of our review to explain how understanding causal mechanisms can inform clinical practice and the implementation of best practice. In the final sections, we introduce contemporary methodological advances, highlight the key assumptions of these methods, and discuss future directions to advance the quality of mechanism-related studies in the back pain field