Perspectives on Political Methodology: Interview with Simon Jackman

In this interview, Simon Jackman discusses his background training and the state of political methodology in the United States. Themes include advantages of Bayesian inference, the links between Bayesian statistics and causal relations, the importance of statistical literacy and the role of programming for social scientist

Um ano após a crise: os impactos nas negociações internacionais

The article evaluates the experts' prognostics to international trade and international negotiations in the beginning of the economic crisis and compares it with actual data. In the general trend the prognostics were correct, but they do not fit well to the details of actual behavior of countries regarding protectionism and trade flux as well.O artigo avalia os prognósticos dos especialistas no começo da crise econômica em relação ao comércio internacional e negociações internacionais e compara esses prognósticos com o que aconteceu de fato. Em geral, os prognósticos estavam corretos, porém a realidade se mostrou mais nuançada em relação ao comportamento esperado dos países e dos fluxos comerciais

Bottom-up accountability and public service provision: Evidence from a field experiment in Brazil

Does local oversight improve public service delivery? We study the effect of a mobile phone application that allows citizens to monitor school construction projects in Brazilian municipalities. The app prompts users to submit data about construction sites, sends such crowdsourced information to independent engineers, and contacts the mayors’ offices about project delays. Our results show that the app has a null impact on school construction indicators. Additionally, we find that politicians are unresponsive to individual requests. The results question the impact of bottom-up monitoring on public service performance and suggest that interventions targeted at other groups, or focused on different issues, may produce better policy outcomes

The Bigger, the Better: Coalitions in the GATT/WTO

What does it take to make a coalition successful? Bigger coalitions are more likely to be successful because the GATT/WTO is a consensus-based institution and countries are informally penalized if they isolate themselves. Through a Bayesian statistical analysis, the article corroborates the above hypothesis. To further investigate the research question, qualitative case studies of the G-10 in the Uruguay Round and the Public Health Coalition in the Doha Round are conducted. These cases show that the more convincing the framing of a position, the better are the chances of coalitions keeping a large number of followers and supporters, thereby affecting their odds of success. By building a unique database and applying a new research design to the topic, the study rigorously tests theories about coalitions that had previously only been proposed but not empirically analyzed

A autonomia de gestão financeiro-orçamentária em uma autarquia educacional

As universidades baianas têm enfrentado dificuldades financeiras nos últimos anos. A Universidade Estadual do Sudoeste da Bahia (UESB), principal Instituição de Ensino Superior do Sudoeste baiano, não foge à regra. O repasse financeiro tem sido cada vez menor e as limitações orçamentárias um grande empecilho para o desenvolvimento das atividades-fim da Instituição, Ensino, Pesquisa e Extensão. Diante disso surgiu a problemática de pesquisa: A UESB é uma universidade autônoma financeiramente? O presente artigo tem como objetivo averiguar se realmente existiu autonomia financeiro-orçamentária na UESB no ano de 2015. A metodologia utilizada teve caráter quantitativo e o instrumento de coleta de dados foram pesquisas exploratórias e explicativas. A pesquisa bibliográfica referendou a fundamentação teórica e a pesquisa documental serviu de base para análise dos quadros de detalhamento das despesas nos anos de 2014 e 2015. Foram utilizados também documentos complementares, como o Plano de Desenvolvimento Institucional. A análise apontou o seguinte resultado: a UESB não tem muita autonomia sobre seu orçamento e, consequentemente, sobre as suas finanças

Governance of information technology: a study of decision making in public and private organizations

A pesquisa teve como objetivo avaliar a participação dos gestores de tecnologia da informação (TI) de organizações públicas e privadas no processo de alinhamento de TI e tomada de decisões estratégicas organizacionais com base na Matriz de Arranjo de Governança de TI (Weill e Ross, 2006). Foi desenvolvida uma pesquisa tipo survey descritiva com 44 gestores da área de TI da cidade do Natal, sendo 18 de organizações públicas e 26 de organizações privadas. Os resultados sugerem que os gestores de TI são os principais atores do processo decisório tanto nas organizações públicas quanto privadas, sobretudo para as decisões-chave que envolvem os princípios, arquitetura e estratégias de infraestrutura de TI. Finalmente, também se conclui que os padrões de tomada de decisão são muito próximos entre as organizações públicas e privadas, porém os resultados obtidos nas organizações públicas são mais próximos ao padrão obtido na pesquisa de Weill e Ross (2006

Ensino superior e voto: análise do comportamento eleitoral da comunidade uspiana em 2010

O objetivo deste artigo é apresentar os resultados de uma pesquisa eleitoral realizada nos Campi da USP-Capital pelo Centro de Estudos das Negociações Internacionais (CAENI) e pelo Instituto Júnior de Pesquisas Sociais (IJPS) durante o período de campanha do segundo turno da eleição presidencial de 2010. Discutimos o processo de amostragem e a implicação de pesquisar sobre um universo de pessoas mais escolarizadas e jovens do que a população total. Mostraremos que é mais fácil isolar um comportamento prospectivo nessas condições do que em uma amostra onde o universo é a população de eleitores inteira do país

Production of Sunflower Oil in Response to Nitrogen Fertilization under Semiarid Conditions under Irrigation

Sunflower is one of the most important oilseeds in the world, whose achenes are valued in several industrial chains, mainly for the extraction and processing of its oil. Although there is some information in the literature, the nitrogen (N) requirements for sunflower in semiarid conditions under irrigation are not yet clear. The experimental design used randomized blocks, with treatments in subdivided plots with four replications during two agricultural seasons. The N doses (e.g., 0, 30, 60, 90 and 120 kg ha-1) were assigned to the plots, and to the four sunflower cultivars used (e.g., Aguará 06, Altis 99, Multissol and BRS 122), which were planted in the subplots. The N doses for the maximum achene yields for the Multissol and BRS 122 cultivars were 81.8 and 86.6 kg ha-1, respectively, while N doses of 120 kg ha-1 produced the maximum achene yields for the Altis 99 and Aguará 06 cultivars in the 2016 crop season. In 2017, the Multissol and BRS 122 cultivars were given N doses of 100.7 and 92.8 kg ha-1, respectively, and the Altis 99 and Aguará 06 cultivars were each given an N dose of 120 kg ha-1 of N. The fertirrigated doses of maximum economic efficiency of N were 60 and 70 kg ha-1 for the Multissol and BRS 122 cultivars, respectively. For the oil yields, the maximum N doses of 78.0 and 86.7 kg ha-1 for the BRS 122 and Aguará 06 cultivars and for the Multissol and Altis 99 cultivars at an N dose of 120 kg ha-1 were used for the 2016 harvest. In 2017, the BRS 122 and Multissol cultivars received N doses of 88.6 and 99.1 kg ha-1, respectively, and the Altis 99 and Aguará 06 cultivars received N doses of 120 kg ha-1. The use of fertigation allowed greater efficiency for the N doses in the sunflower cultivars in the semiarid region

Agro-economic profitability of sweet potato cultivars as a function of the harvest age and times of cultivation in the semi-arid

The objective of this work was to evaluate the profitability of sweet potato cultivars, harvested at different ages and cultivated in different periods (rainy and dry) in the municipality of Mossoró, semi-arid region of Rio Grande do Norte. The experimental design was a randomized complete block design with four replications and treatments arranged in split plots scheme. The plots were composed of three sweet potato cultivars (ESAM 1, Paraná and Mother of Family) and the subplots for five harvest ages (90 , 105, 120, 135 and 150 days after transplanting - DAT). Productivity of commercial roots and production costs was evaluated, as well as the economic indicators: gross income, net income, rate of return and profit margin. Independently of the growing periods, the productivity of commercial roots increased with the later harvest of the crop and differentiated the cultivars. Production costs averaged R$6,087.97 ha-1 in the rainy season and R$ 6,181.42 ha-1 in the dry period. Labor expenditures were the most impacting of total expenditures. The cultivars ESAM 1 and Paraná presented higher productivities of commercial roots and profitability when cultivated in the rainy season, while Paraná cultivar was superior to the other cultivars in the crop in the dry season. In both growing periods, the harvest age of 150 DAT promoted higher productivities of commercial roots and profitability to sweet potato production

Economic indicators of nitrogen fertilization in sunflower cultivars

Sunflower is one of the most important oilseeds in the world. However, cultivation in semi-arid regions requires analysis of production costs and profitability, ensuring effective decision-making, focused on farming procedures and techniques. In two agricultural crops, 2016 and 2017, experiments were conducted to evaluate the economic indicators of sunflower cultivars (‘Aguará 06’, ‘Altis 99’, ‘Multissol’ and ‘BRS 122’) submitted to nitrogen (N) doses (0; 30; 60; 90 and 120 kg ha-1) via fertirrigation under semi-arid conditions. The net margin corresponded to the increase of N doses, reaching a maximum net margin in the 2016 harvest of R$366.89 ha-1 at the dose of 81 kg ha-1 of N for ‘BRS 122’; R$ 577.41 ha-1 with 118 kg ha-1 of N for ‘Multissol’; and for ‘Aguará 06’ (R$2,124.00 ha-1) and ‘Altis 99’ (R$ 976.66 ha-1) at the dose of 120 kg ha-1 of N. In the 2017 harvest, ‘BRS 122’ obtained R$190.90 ha-1 in the dose of 83 kg ha-1 of N and ‘Multissol’ reached R$ 657.50 in the dose of 85 kg ha-1 of N; the cultivars ‘Aguará 06’ (R$1,078.00 ha-1) and ‘Altis 99’ (R$ 957.14 ha-1) in the dose of 120 kg ha-1 of N. The rate of return and the profitability index were positive for all cultivars in both crops