The origins of dengue and chikungunya viruses in Ecuador following increased migration from Venezuela and Colombia

This work was funded by the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Branch (AFHSB) and its Global Emerging Infections Surveillance (GEIS) Section, FY2018 ProMIS ID P0108_18_WR.Background: In recent years, Ecuador and other South American countries have experienced an increase in arboviral diseases. A rise in dengue infections was followed by introductions of chikungunya and Zika, two viruses never before seen in many of these areas. Furthermore, the latest socioeconomic and political instability in Venezuela and the mass migration of its population into the neighboring countries has given rise to concerns of infectious disease spillover and escalation of arboviral spread in the region. Results: We performed phylogeographic analyses of dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) virus genomes sampled from a surveillance site in Ecuador in 2014-2015, along with genomes from the surrounding countries. Our results revealed at least two introductions of DENV, in 2011 and late 2013, that initially originated from Venezuela and/or Colombia. The introductions were subsequent to increases in the influx of Venezuelan and Colombian citizens into Ecuador, which in 2013 were 343% and 214% higher than in 2009, respectively. However, we show that Venezuela has historically been an important source of DENV dispersal in this region, even before the massive exodus of its population, suggesting already established paths of viral distribution. Like DENV, CHIKV was introduced into Ecuador at multiple time points in 2013-2014, but unlike DENV, these introductions were associated with the Caribbean. Our findings indicated no direct CHIKV connection between Ecuador, Colombia, and Venezuela as of 2015, suggesting that CHIKV was, at this point, not following the paths of DENV spread. Conclusion: Our results reveal that Ecuador is vulnerable to arbovirus import from many geographic locations, emphasizing the need of continued surveillance and more diversified prevention strategies. Importantly, increase in human movement along established paths of viral dissemination, combined with regional outbreaks and epidemics, may facilitate viral spread and lead to novel virus introductions. Thus, strengthening infectious disease surveillance and control along migration routes and improving access to healthcare for the vulnerable populations is of utmost importance.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Salience-based selection: attentional capture by distractors less salient than the target

Current accounts of attentional capture predict the most salient stimulus to be invariably selected first. However, existing salience and visual search models assume noise in the map computation or selection process. Consequently, they predict the first selection to be stochastically dependent on salience, implying that attention could even be captured first by the second most salient (instead of the most salient) stimulus in the field. Yet, capture by less salient distractors has not been reported and salience-based selection accounts claim that the distractor has to be more salient in order to capture attention. We tested this prediction using an empirical and modeling approach of the visual search distractor paradigm. For the empirical part, we manipulated salience of target and distractor parametrically and measured reaction time interference when a distractor was present compared to absent. Reaction time interference was strongly correlated with distractor salience relative to the target. Moreover, even distractors less salient than the target captured attention, as measured by reaction time interference and oculomotor capture. In the modeling part, we simulated first selection in the distractor paradigm using behavioral measures of salience and considering the time course of selection including noise. We were able to replicate the result pattern we obtained in the empirical part. We conclude that each salience value follows a specific selection time distribution and attentional capture occurs when the selection time distributions of target and distractor overlap. Hence, selection is stochastic in nature and attentional capture occurs with a certain probability depending on relative salience

Identification and evaluation of epidemic prediction and forecasting reporting guidelines : a systematic review and a call for action

NGR reports funding by NIGMS grant R35GM119582. BMA is supported by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation through the Global Good Fund. SP and IMB were funded by the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Branch (GEIS: P0116_19_WR_03.11).Introduction: High quality epidemic forecasting and prediction are critical to support response to local, regional and global infectious disease threats. Other fields of biomedical research use consensus reporting guidelines to ensure standardization and quality of research practice among researchers, and to provide a framework for end-users to interpret the validity of study results. The purpose of this study was to determine whether guidelines exist specifically for epidemic forecast and prediction publications. Methods: We undertook a formal systematic review to identify and evaluate any published infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction reporting guidelines. This review leveraged a team of 18 investigators from US Government and academic sectors. Results: A literature database search through May 26, 2019, identified 1467 publications (MEDLINE n = 584, EMBASE n = 883), and a grey-literature review identified a further 407 publications, yielding a total 1777 unique publications. A paired-reviewer system screened in 25 potentially eligible publications, of which two were ultimately deemed eligible. A qualitative review of these two published reporting guidelines indicated that neither were specific for epidemic forecasting and prediction, although they described reporting items which may be relevant to epidemic forecasting and prediction studies. Conclusions: This systematic review confirms that no specific guidelines have been published to standardize the reporting of epidemic forecasting and prediction studies. These findings underscore the need to develop such reporting guidelines in order to improve the transparency, quality and implementation of epidemic forecasting and prediction research in operational public health.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Identification and Evaluation of Epidemic Prediction and Forecasting Reporting Guidelines: A Systematic Review and a Call for Action

INTRODUCTION: High quality epidemic forecasting and prediction are critical to support response to local, regional and global infectious disease threats. Other fields of biomedical research use consensus reporting guidelines to ensure standardization and quality of research practice among researchers, and to provide a framework for end-users to interpret the validity of study results. The purpose of this study was to determine whether guidelines exist specifically for epidemic forecast and prediction publications. METHODS: We undertook a formal systematic review to identify and evaluate any published infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction reporting guidelines. This review leveraged a team of 18 investigators from US Government and academic sectors. RESULTS: A literature database search through May 26, 2019, identified 1467 publications (MEDLINE n = 584, EMBASE n = 883), and a grey-literature review identified a further 407 publications, yielding a total 1777 unique publications. A paired-reviewer system screened in 25 potentially eligible publications, of which two were ultimately deemed eligible. A qualitative review of these two published reporting guidelines indicated that neither were specific for epidemic forecasting and prediction, although they described reporting items which may be relevant to epidemic forecasting and prediction studies. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review confirms that no specific guidelines have been published to standardize the reporting of epidemic forecasting and prediction studies. These findings underscore the need to develop such reporting guidelines in order to improve the transparency, quality and implementation of epidemic forecasting and prediction research in operational public health

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Attentional Guidance during Inefficient Visual Search

Spotting a prey or a predator is crucial in the natural environment and relies on the ability to extract quickly pertinent visual information. The experimental counterpart of this behavior is visual search (VS) where subjects have to identify a target amongst several distractors. In difficult VS tasks, it has been found that the reaction time (RT) is influenced by salience factors, such as the target-distractor similarity, and this finding is usually regarded as evidence for a guidance of attention by preattentive mechanisms. However, the use of RT measurements, a parameter which depends on multiple factors, allows only very indirect inferences about the underlying attentional mechanisms. The purpose of the present study was to determine the influence of salience factors on attentional guidance during VS, by measuring directly attentional allocation. We studied attention allocation by using a dual covert VS task in subjects who had 1) to detect a target amongst different items and 2) to report letters briefly flashed inside those items at different delays. As predicted, we showed that parallel processes guide attention towards the most relevant item by virtue of both goal-directed and stimulus-driven factors, and we demonstrated that this attentional selection is a prerequisite for target detection. In addition, we show that when the target is characterized by two features (conjunction VS), the goal-directed effects of both features are initially combined into a unique salience value, but at a later stage, grouping phenomena interact with the salience computation, and lead to the selection of a whole group of items. These results, in line with Guided Search Theory, show that efficient and rapid preattentive processes guide attention towards the most salient item, allowing to reduce the number of attentional shifts needed to find the target

Reconstructing unseen transmission events to infer dengue dynamics from viral sequences.

For most pathogens, transmission is driven by interactions between the behaviours of infectious individuals, the behaviours of the wider population, the local environment, and immunity. Phylogeographic approaches are currently unable to disentangle the relative effects of these competing factors. We develop a spatiotemporally structured phylogenetic framework that addresses these limitations by considering individual transmission events, reconstructed across spatial scales. We apply it to geocoded dengue virus sequences from Thailand (N = 726 over 18 years). We find infected individuals spend 96% of their time in their home community compared to 76% for the susceptible population (mainly children) and 42% for adults. Dynamic pockets of local immunity make transmission more likely in places with high heterotypic immunity and less likely where high homotypic immunity exists. Age-dependent mixing of individuals and vector distributions are not important in determining spread. This approach provides previously unknown insights into one of the most complex disease systems known and will be applicable to other pathogens

The costs of switching attentional sets

People prioritize those aspects of the visual environment that match their attentional set. In the present study, we investigated whether switching from one attentional set to another is associated with a cost. We asked observers to sequentially saccade toward two color-defined targets, one on the left side of the display, the other on the right, each among a set of heterogeneously colored distractors. The targets were of the same color (no attentional set switch required) or of different colors (switch of attentional sets necessary), with each color consistently tied to a side, to allow observers to maximally prepare for the switch. We found that saccades were less accurate and slower in the switch condition than in the no-switch condition. Furthermore, whenever one of the distractors had the color associated with the other attentional set, a substantial proportion of saccades did not end on the target, but on this distractor. A time course analysis revealed that this distractor preference turned into a target preference after about 250–300 ms, suggesting that this is the time required to switch attentional sets