The carbon footprint of desalination: An input-output analysis of seawater reverse osmosis desalination in Australia for 2005–2015

This study examines greenhouse gas emissions for 2005–2015 from seawater desalination in Australia, using conventional energies. We developed a tailor-made multi-regional input-output-model. We complemented macroeconomic top-down data with plant-specific desalination data of the largest 20 desalination plants in Australia. The analysed capacity cumulates to 95% of Australia's overall seawater desalination capacity. We considered the construction and the operation of desalination plants. We measure not only direct effects, but also indirect effects throughout the entire value chain. Our results show the following: We identify the state of Victoria with the highest emissions due to capital and operational expenditures (capex and opex). The contribution of the upstream value chain to total greenhouse gas emissions increases for capex and decreases for opex. For capex, the construction of intake and outfall is the driving factor for carbon emissions. For opex, electricity consumption is the decisive input factor. Both in construction and operation, we identify the critical role of the electricity sector for carbon emissions throughout the supply chain effects. The sector contributes 69% during the zenith of the construction phase and 96% during the operating phase to the entire emissions. We estimate the total emissions for 2015 at 1193 kt CO2e

Downscaling down under: towards degrowth in integrated assessment models

IPCC reports, to date, have not featured ambitious mitigation scenarios with degrowth in high-income regions. Here, using MESSAGEix-Australia, we create 51 emissions scenarios for Australia with near-term GDP growth going from +3%/year to rapid reductions (−5%/year) to explore how a traditional integrated assessment model (IAM) represents degrowth from an economic starting point, not just energy demand reduction. We find that stagnating GDP per capita reduces the mid-century need for upscaling solar and wind energy by about 40% compared to the SSP2 growth baseline, and limits future material needs for renewables. Still, solar and wind energy in 2030 is more than quadruple that of 2020. Faster reductions in energy demand may entail higher socio-cultural feasibility concerns, depending on the policies involved. Strong reductions in inequality reduce the risk of lowered access to decent living services. We discuss research needs and possible IAM extensions to improve post-growth and degrowth scenario modelling

The environmental footprint of health care: a global assessment

Background: Health-care services are necessary for sustaining and improving human wellbeing, yet they have an environmental footprint that contributes to environment-related threats to human health. Previous studies have quantified the carbon emissions resulting from health care at a global level. We aimed to provide a global assessment of the wide-ranging environmental impacts of this sector. Methods: In this multiregional input-output analysis, we evaluated the contribution of health-care sectors in driving environmental damage that in turn puts human health at risk. Using a global supply-chain database containing detailed information on health-care sectors, we quantified the direct and indirect supply-chain environmental damage driven by the demand for health care. We focused on seven environmental stressors with known adverse feedback cycles: greenhouse gas emissions, particulate matter, air pollutants (nitrogen oxides and sulphur dioxide), malaria risk, reactive nitrogen in water, and scarce water use. Findings: Health care causes global environmental impacts that, depending on which indicator is considered, range between 1% and 5% of total global impacts, and are more than 5% for some national impacts. Interpretation: Enhancing health-care expenditure to mitigate negative health effects of environmental damage is often promoted by health-care practitioners. However, global supply chains that feed into the enhanced activity of health-care sectors in turn initiate adverse feedback cycles by increasing the environmental impact of health care, thus counteracting the mission of health care. Funding: Australian Research Council, National eResearch Collaboration Tools and Resources project. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

A Novel Method for Estimating Emissions Reductions Caused by the Restriction of Mobility: The Case of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic is the single largest event in contemporary history for global mobility restriction, with the majority of the world population experiencing various forms of ‘lockdown’. This phenomenon incurred increased teleworking and time spent at home, fewer trips to shops, closure of retail outlets selling non-essential goods, and near-disappearance of leisure and recreational activities. This paper presents a novel method for an economy-wide estimate of the emissions reductions caused by the restriction of movement. Using a global multi-regional macro-economic model complemented by Google Community Mobility Reports (CMR) and national transport data, we cover 129 individual countries and quantify direct and indirect global emissions reductions of greenhouse gases (GHG; 1,173 Mt), PM2.5 (0.23 Mt), SO2 (1.57 Mt) and NOx (3.69 Mt). A statistically significant correlation is observed between cross-country emission reductions and the stringency of mobility restriction policies. Due to the aggregated nature of the CMRs we develop different scenarios linked to consumption, work, and lifestyle aspects. Global reductions are in the order of 1-3% (GHG), 1-2% (PM2.5), 0.5-2.8% (SO2), and 3-4% (NOx). Our results can help support crucial decision-making in the post-COVID world, with quantified information on how direct and indirect consequences of mobility changes benefit the environment

Global socio-economic losses and environmental gains from the Coronavirus pandemic

On 3 April 2020, the Director-General of the WHO stated: “[COVID-19] is much more than a health crisis. We are all aware of the profound social and economic consequences of the pandemic (WHO, 2020)”. Such consequences are the result of counter-measures such as lockdowns, and world-wide reductions in production and consumption, amplified by cascading impacts through international supply chains. Using a global multi-regional macro-economic model, we capture direct and indirect spill-over effects in terms of social and economic losses, as well as environmental effects of the pandemic. Based on information as of May 2020, we show that global consumption losses amount to 3.8$tr, triggering significant job (147 million full-time equivalent) and income (2.1$tr) losses. Global atmospheric emissions are reduced by 2.5Gt of greenhouse gases, 0.6Mt of PM2.5, and 5.1Mt of SO2 and NOx. While Asia, Europe and the USA have been the most directly impacted regions, and transport and tourism the immediately hit sectors, the indirect effects transmitted along international supply chains are being felt across the entire world economy. These ripple effects highlight the intrinsic link between socio-economic and environmental dimensions, and emphasise the challenge of addressing unsustainable global patterns. How humanity reacts to this crisis will define the post-pandemic world

Sustainable futures for Australia – the case of biofuels

Biofuels research is gaining worldwide attention due to growing concerns about greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. Biofuels have the potential to become an alternative to fossil fuels as they can be produced from a diverse mix of feedstocks such as energy crops (e.g. sugarcane, corn and sorghum), forestry biomass (e.g. hardwood & softwood pulplogs, forestry & sawmill residues), wastes (e.g. kitchen and garden waste and sewage sludge), and novel feedstocks such as algae. Algae are regarded as a promising feedstock for biofuel production due to their ability to grow on marginal land at must faster rates than any other feedstock. The main aim of this thesis is to assess the sustainability performance of future biofuel industries in Australia. To this end, I present a range of case studies that comprehensively assess the environmental, social and economic impacts of biofuel production in Australia. In particular, I appraise the potential of biofuels for creating employment and economic stimulus in rural and regional Australia; and for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, I analyse the sustainability performance of businesses on Norfolk Island, especially a local business - Farmer Lou’s Pig Farm that produces biofuels using pig effluent. The results presented in this thesis are obtained by undertaking a detailed assessment of future biofuel supply chains using a well-established technique called multi-regional input-output analysis. Supply chain assessment is crucial for determining the sustainability assessment of a new industry or technology. In nutshell, the results demonstrate the potential of bioenergy in a) creating employment and economic stimulus in rural and regional Australia; b) reducing greenhouse gas emissions and urban air pollution; and c) providing a sustainable energy-secure future for Australia. In addition to comprehensively assessing the impacts of future biofuel industries in Australia, a number of novel methodologies are presented in this thesis, such as the augmentation approach for undertaking hybrid LCA

Sustainable futures for Australia – the case of biofuels

Biofuels research is gaining worldwide attention due to growing concerns about greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. Biofuels have the potential to become an alternative to fossil fuels as they can be produced from a diverse mix of feedstocks such as energy crops (e.g. sugarcane, corn and sorghum), forestry biomass (e.g. hardwood & softwood pulplogs, forestry & sawmill residues), wastes (e.g. kitchen and garden waste and sewage sludge), and novel feedstocks such as algae. Algae are regarded as a promising feedstock for biofuel production due to their ability to grow on marginal land at must faster rates than any other feedstock. The main aim of this thesis is to assess the sustainability performance of future biofuel industries in Australia. To this end, I present a range of case studies that comprehensively assess the environmental, social and economic impacts of biofuel production in Australia. In particular, I appraise the potential of biofuels for creating employment and economic stimulus in rural and regional Australia; and for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, I analyse the sustainability performance of businesses on Norfolk Island, especially a local business - Farmer Lou’s Pig Farm that produces biofuels using pig effluent. The results presented in this thesis are obtained by undertaking a detailed assessment of future biofuel supply chains using a well-established technique called multi-regional input-output analysis. Supply chain assessment is crucial for determining the sustainability assessment of a new industry or technology. In nutshell, the results demonstrate the potential of bioenergy in a) creating employment and economic stimulus in rural and regional Australia; b) reducing greenhouse gas emissions and urban air pollution; and c) providing a sustainable energy-secure future for Australia. In addition to comprehensively assessing the impacts of future biofuel industries in Australia, a number of novel methodologies are presented in this thesis, such as the augmentation approach for undertaking hybrid LCA

Simulating the impact of new industries on the economy:The case of biorefining in Australia

We investigate the economic and employment consequences of introducing a new sugarcane-based biofuel industry into Australia. We model the new biofuel industry on the production recipe of the existing large-scale gasoalcohol and alcohol sectors in the Brazilian economy. To this end we utilise a hybrid IO-LCA (input-output life cycle assessment) approach, which involves inserting data on new processes and/or sectors into an existing IO table. In particular, we develop and test an analytical and a numerical approach for re-balancing an IO table augmented with rows and columns representing large new biofuel industries. We quantify changes in economic output and employment in the Australian economy. We conclude that a future biofuel industry will be employment-positive for Australia. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Drivers of global nitrogen emissions

Nitrogen is crucial for sustaining life. However, excessive reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the form of ammonia, nitrates, nitrogen oxides or nitrous oxides affects the quality of water, air and soil, resulting in human health risks. This study aims to assess the drivers of Nr emissions by analysing six determinants: nitrogen efficiency (Nr emissions per unit of production), production recipe (inter-sectoral dependencies), final demand composition (consumption baskets of households), final demand destination (consumption vs. investment balance), affluence (final consumption per capita) and population. To this end, we construct a detailed multi-regional input-output database featuring data on international trade between 186 countries to undertake a global structural decomposition analysis of a change in global Nr emissions from 1997 to 2017. Our analysis shows that nitrogen efficiency has improved over the assessed time-period, however affluence, final demand destination and population growth have resulted in an overall increase in Nr emissions. We provide a global perspective of the drivers of nitrogen emissions at a detailed country level, and breakdown the change in emissions into contribution from domestic footprint and rest-of-world footprint. We highlight that food production coupled with growing international trade is increasing Nr emissions worldwide.</p