Improving the applicability of radar rainfall estimates for urban pluvial flood modelling and forecasting

This work explores the possibility of improving the applicability of radar rainfall estimates (whose accuracy is generally insufficient) to the verification and operation of urban storm-water drainage models by employing a number of local gauge-based radar rainfall adjustment techniques. The adjustment techniques tested in this work include a simple mean-field bias (MFB) adjustment, as well as a more complex Bayesian radar-raingauge data merging method which aims at better preserving the spatial structure of rainfall fields. In addition, a novel technique (namely, local singularity analysis) is introduced and shown to improve the Bayesian method by better capturing and reproducing storm patterns and peaks. Two urban catchments were used as case studies in this work: the Cranbrook catchment (9 km2) in North-East London, and the Portobello catchment (53 km2) in the East of Edinburgh. In the former, the potential benefits of gauge-based adjusted radar rainfall estimates in an operational context were analysed, whereas in the latter the potential benefits of adjusted estimates for model verification purposes were explored. Different rainfall inputs, including raingauge, original radar and the aforementioned merged estimates were fed into the urban drainage models of the two catchments. The hydraulic outputs were compared against available flow and depth records. On the whole, the tested adjustment techniques proved to improve the applicability of radar rainfall estimates to urban hydrological applications, with the Bayesian-based methods, in particular the singularity sensitive one, providing more realistic and accurate rainfall fields which result in better reproduction of the urban drainage system’s dynamics. Further testing is still necessary in order to better assess the benefits of these adjustment methods, identify their shortcomings and improve them accordingly

On the use of semi-distributed and fully-distributed urban stormwater models

Urban stormwater models comprise four main components: rainfall, rainfall-runoff, overland flow and sewer flow modules. They can be considered semi-distributed (SD) or fully distributed (FD) according to the rainfall-runoff module definition. SD models are based on sub-catchments units through which rainfall is applied to the model and at which runoff volumes are estimated. In FD models, the runoff volumes are estimated and applied directly on every element of a twodimensional (2D) model of the surface. This poster presents a comparison of SD and FD models based on two case studies: Zona Central catchment at Coimbra, Portugal, and Cranbrook catchment at London, UK. SD and FD modelling results are compared against water depth and flow records in sewers, and photographic records of a flood event. In general, FD models are theoretically more realistic and physically-based, but the results of this study suggest that the implementation of these models requires higher resolution (more detailed) elevation, land use and sewer network data than is normally used in the implementation of SD models. Failing to use higher resolution data for the implementation of FD models could result in poor-performing models. In cases when high resolution data are not available, the use of SD models could be a better choice

Demonstrating Universal Scaling in Quench Dynamics of a Yukawa One-Component Plasma

The Yukawa one-component plasma (OCP) is a paradigm model for describing plasmas that contain one component of interest and one or more other components that can be treated as a neutralizing, screening background. In appropriately scaled units, interactions are characterized entirely by a screening parameter, $\kappa$. As a result, systems of similar $\kappa$ show the same dynamics, regardless of the underlying parameters (e.g., density and temperature). We demonstrate this behavior using ultracold neutral plasmas (UNP) created by photoionizing a cold ($T\le10$ mK) gas. The ions in UNP systems are well described by the Yukawa model, with the electrons providing the screening. Creation of the plasma through photoionization can be thought of as a rapid quench from $\kappa_{0}=\infty$ to a final $\kappa$ value set by the electron density and temperature. We demonstrate experimentally that the post-quench dynamics are universal in $\kappa$ over a factor of 30 in density and an order of magnitude in temperature. Results are compared with molecular dynamics simulations. We also demonstrate that features of the post-quench kinetic energy evolution, such as disorder-induced heating and kinetic-energy oscillations, can be used to determine the plasma density and the electron temperature.Comment: 10 pages, 12 figures, to be submitted to Physical Review

A neighbourhood-scale estimate for the cooling potential of green roofs

Green roofs offer the possibility to mitigate multiple environmental issues in an urban environment. A common benefit attributed to green roofs is the temperature reduction through evaporation. This study focuses on evaluating the effect that evaporative cooling has on outdoor air temperatures in an urban environment. An established urban energy balance model was modified to quantify the cooling potential of green roofs and study the scalability of this mitigation strategy. Simulations were performed for different climates and urban geometries, with varying soil moisture content, green roof fraction and urban surface layer thickness. All simulations show a linear relationship between surface layer temperature reduction ΔTs and domain averaged evaporation rates from vegetation mmW, i.e. ΔTs = eW ⋅ mmW, where eW is the evaporative cooling potential with a value of ∼ −0.35 Kdaymm−1. This relationship is independent of the method by which water is supplied. We also derive a simple algebraic relation for eW using a Taylor series expansion

A zone of preferential ion heating extends tens of solar radii from Sun

The extreme temperatures and non-thermal nature of the solar corona and solar wind arise from an unidentified physical mechanism that preferentially heats certain ion species relative to others. Spectroscopic indicators of unequal temperatures commence within a fraction of a solar radius above the surface of the Sun, but the outer reach of this mechanism has yet to be determined. Here we present an empirical procedure for combining interplanetary solar wind measurements and a modeled energy equation including Coulomb relaxation to solve for the typical outer boundary of this zone of preferential heating. Applied to two decades of observations by the Wind spacecraft, our results are consistent with preferential heating being active in a zone extending from the transition region in the lower corona to an outer boundary 20-40 solar radii from the Sun, producing a steady state super-mass-proportional $\alpha$-to-proton temperature ratio of $5.2-5.3$. Preferential ion heating continues far beyond the transition region and is important for the evolution of both the outer corona and the solar wind. The outer boundary of this zone is well below the orbits of spacecraft at 1 AU and even closer missions such as Helios and MESSENGER, meaning it is likely that no existing mission has directly observed intense preferential heating, just residual signatures. We predict that {Parker Solar Probe} will be the first spacecraft with a perihelia sufficiently close to the Sun to pass through the outer boundary, enter the zone of preferential heating, and directly observe the physical mechanism in action.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal on 1 August 201

Quantifying the impact of small scale unmeasured rainfall variability on urban runoff through multifractal downscaling: A case study

International audienceThis paper aims at quantifying the uncertainty on urban runoff associated with the unmeasured small scale rainfall variability, i.e. at a resolution finer than 1. km. ×. 1. km. ×. 5. min which is usually available with C-band radar networks. A case study is done on the 900. ha urban catchment of Cranbrook (London). A frontal and a convective rainfall event are analysed. An ensemble prediction approach is implemented, that is to say an ensemble of realistic downscaled rainfall fields is generated with the help of universal multifractals, and the corresponding ensemble of hydrographs is simulated. It appears that the uncertainty on the simulated peak flow is significant, reaching for some conduits 25% and 40% respectively for the frontal and the convective events. The flow corresponding the 90% quantile, the one simulated with radar distributed rainfall, and the spatial resolution are power law related. © 2012 Elsevier B.V

Heating of the solar wind with electron and proton effects

We examine the effects of including effects of both protons and electrons on the heating of the fast solar wind through two different approaches. In the first approach, we incorporate the electron temperature in an MHD turbulence transport model for the solar wind. In the second approach, we adopt more empirically based methods by analyzing the measured proton and electron temperatures to calculate the heat deposition rates. Overall, we conclude that incorporating separate proton and electron temperatures and heat conduction effects provides an improved and more complete model of the heating of the solar wind

Exact separation logic: towards bridging the gap between verification and bug-finding

Over-approximating (OX) program logics, such as separation logic (SL), are used for verifying properties of heap-manipulating programs: all terminating behaviour is characterised, but established results and errors need not be reachable. OX function specifications are thus incompatible with true bug-finding supported by symbolic execution tools such as Pulse and Pulse-X. In contrast, under-approximating (UX) program logics, such as incorrectness separation logic, are used to find true results and bugs: established results and errors are reachable, but there is no mechanism for understanding if all terminating behaviour has been characterised. We introduce exact separation logic (ESL), which provides fully-verified function specifications compatible with both OX verification and UX true bug-funding: all terminating behaviour is characterised and all established results and errors are reachable. We prove soundness for ESL with mutually recursive functions, demonstrating, for the first time, function compositionality for a UX logic. We show that UX program logics require subtle definitions of internal and external function specifications compared with the familiar definitions of OX logics. We investigate the expressivity of ESL and, for the first time, explore the role of abstraction in UX reasoning by verifying abstract ESL specifications of various data-structure algorithms. In doing so, we highlight the difference between abstraction (hiding information) and over-approximation (losing information). Our findings demonstrate that abstraction cannot be used as freely in UX logics as in OX logics, but also that it should be feasible to use ESL to provide tractable function specifications for self-contained, critical code, which would then be used for both verification and true bug-finding