A Bayesian approach for estimating typhoid fever incidence from large-scale facility-based passive surveillance data.

Funder: Public Health Research Programme; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001921Decisions about typhoid fever prevention and control are based on estimates of typhoid incidence and their uncertainty. Lack of specific clinical diagnostic criteria, poorly sensitive diagnostic tests, and scarcity of accurate and complete datasets contribute to difficulties in calculating age-specific population-level typhoid incidence. Using data from the Strategic Typhoid Alliance across Africa and Asia program, we integrated demographic censuses, healthcare utilization surveys, facility-based surveillance, and serological surveillance from Malawi, Nepal, and Bangladesh to account for under-detection of cases. We developed a Bayesian approach that adjusts the count of reported blood-culture-positive cases for blood culture detection, blood culture collection, and healthcare seeking-and how these factors vary by age-while combining information from prior published studies. We validated the model using simulated data. The ratio of observed to adjusted incidence rates was 7.7 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 6.0-12.4) in Malawi, 14.4 (95% CrI: 9.3-24.9) in Nepal, and 7.0 (95% CrI: 5.6-9.2) in Bangladesh. The probability of blood culture collection led to the largest adjustment in Malawi, while the probability of seeking healthcare contributed the most in Nepal and Bangladesh; adjustment factors varied by age. Adjusted incidence rates were within or below the seroincidence rate limits of typhoid infection. Estimates of blood-culture-confirmed typhoid fever without these adjustments results in considerable underestimation of the true incidence of typhoid fever. Our approach allows each phase of the reporting process to be synthesized to estimate the adjusted incidence of typhoid fever while correctly characterizing uncertainty, which can inform decision-making for typhoid prevention and control

Burden of enteric fever at three urban sites in Africa and Asia: a multicentre population-based study

BACKGROUND: Enteric fever is a serious public health concern in many low-income and middle-income countries. Numerous data gaps exist concerning the epidemiology of Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi (S Typhi) and Salmonella enterica serotype Paratyphi (S Paratyphi), which are the causative agents of enteric fever. We aimed to determine the burden of enteric fever in three urban sites in Africa and Asia. METHODS: In this multicentre population-based study, we did a demographic census at three urban sites in Africa (Blantyre, Malawi) and Asia (Kathmandu, Nepal and Dhaka, Bangladesh) between June 1, 2016, and Sept 25, 2018. Households were selected randomly from the demographic census. Participants from within the geographical census area presenting to study health-care facilities were approached for recruitment if they had a history of fever for 72 h or more (later changed to >48 h) or temperature of 38·0°C or higher. Facility-based passive surveillance was done between Nov 11, 2016, and Dec 31, 2018, with blood-culture collection for febrile illness. We also did a community-based serological survey to obtain data on Vi-antibody defined infections. We calculated crude incidence for blood-culture-confirmed S Typhi and S Paratyphi infection, and calculated adjusted incidence and seroincidence of S Typhi blood-culture-confirmed infection. FINDINGS: 423 618 individuals were included in the demographic census, contributing 626 219 person-years of observation for febrile illness surveillance. 624 S Typhi and 108 S Paratyphi A isolates were collected from the blood of 12 082 febrile patients. Multidrug resistance was observed in 44% S Typhi isolates and fluoroquinolone resistance in 61% of S Typhi isolates. In Blantyre, the overall crude incidence of blood-culture confirmed S Typhi was 58 cases per 100 000 person-years of observation (95% CI 48-70); the adjusted incidence was 444 cases per 100 000 person-years of observation (95% credible interval [CrI] 347-717). The corresponding rates were 74 (95% CI 62-87) and 1062 (95% CrI 683-1839) in Kathmandu, and 161 (95% CI 145-179) and 1135 (95% CrI 898-1480) in Dhaka. S Paratyphi was not found in Blantyre; overall crude incidence of blood-culture-confirmed S Paratyphi A infection was 6 cases per 100 000 person-years of observation (95% CI 3-11) in Kathmandu and 42 (95% CI 34-52) in Dhaka. Seroconversion rates for S Typhi infection per 100 000 person-years estimated from anti-Vi seroconversion episodes in serological surveillance were 2505 episodes (95% CI 1605-3727) in Blantyre, 7631 (95% CI 5913-9691) in Kathmandu, and 3256 (95% CI 2432-4270) in Dhaka. INTERPRETATION: High disease incidence and rates of antimicrobial resistance were observed across three different transmission settings and thus necessitate multiple intervention strategies to achieve global control of these pathogens. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Transcriptional Enhancers in Protein-Coding Exons of Vertebrate Developmental Genes

Many conserved noncoding sequences function as transcriptional enhancers that regulate gene expression. Here, we report that protein-coding DNA also frequently contains enhancers functioning at the transcriptional level. We tested the enhancer activity of 31 protein-coding exons, which we chose based on strong sequence conservation between zebrafish and human, and occurrence in developmental genes, using a Tol2 transposable GFP reporter assay in zebrafish. For each exon we measured GFP expression in hundreds of embryos in 10 anatomies via a novel system that implements the voice-recognition capabilities of a cellular phone. We find that 24/31 (77%) exons drive GFP expression compared to a minimal promoter control, and 14/24 are anatomy-specific (expression in four anatomies or less). GFP expression driven by these coding enhancers frequently overlaps the anatomies where the host gene is expressed (60%), suggesting self-regulation. Highly conserved coding sequences and highly conserved noncoding sequences do not significantly differ in enhancer activity (coding: 24/31 vs. noncoding: 105/147) or tissue-specificity (coding: 14/24 vs. noncoding: 50/105). Furthermore, coding and noncoding enhancers display similar levels of the enhancer-related histone modification H3K4me1 (coding: 9/24 vs noncoding: 34/81). Meanwhile, coding enhancers are over three times as likely to contain an H3K4me1 mark as other exons of the host gene. Our work suggests that developmental transcriptional enhancers do not discriminate between coding and noncoding DNA and reveals widespread dual functions in protein-coding DNA

Schizophrenia-associated somatic copy-number variants from 12,834 cases reveal recurrent NRXN1 and ABCB11 disruptions

While germline copy-number variants (CNVs) contribute to schizophrenia (SCZ) risk, the contribution of somatic CNVs (sCNVs)—present in some but not all cells—remains unknown. We identified sCNVs using blood-derived genotype arrays from 12,834 SCZ cases and 11,648 controls, filtering sCNVs at loci recurrently mutated in clonal blood disorders. Likely early-developmental sCNVs were more common in cases (0.91%) than controls (0.51%, p = 2.68e−4), with recurrent somatic deletions of exons 1–5 of the NRXN1 gene in five SCZ cases. Hi-C maps revealed ectopic, allele-specific loops forming between a potential cryptic promoter and non-coding cis-regulatory elements upon 5′ deletions in NRXN1. We also observed recurrent intragenic deletions of ABCB11, encoding a transporter implicated in anti-psychotic response, in five treatment-resistant SCZ cases and showed that ABCB11 is specifically enriched in neurons forming mesocortical and mesolimbic dopaminergic projections. Our results indicate potential roles of sCNVs in SCZ risk

Changes in historical typhoid transmission across 16 U.S. cities, 1889-1931: Quantifying the impact of investments in water and sewer infrastructures.

Investments in water and sanitation systems are believed to have led to the decline in typhoid fever in developed countries, such that most cases now occur in regions lacking adequate clean water and sanitation. Exploring seasonal and long-term patterns in historical typhoid mortality in the United States can offer deeper understanding of disease drivers. We fit modified Time-series Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered models to city-level weekly mortality counts to estimate seasonal and long-term typhoid transmission. We examined seasonal transmission separately by city and aggregated by water source. Typhoid transmission peaked in late summer/early fall. Seasonality varied by water source, with the greatest variation occurring in cities with reservoirs. We then fit hierarchical regression models to measure associations between long-term transmission and annual financial investments in water and sewer systems. Overall historical $1 per capita ($16.13 in 2017) investments in the water supply were associated with approximately 5% (95% confidence interval: 3-6%) decreases in typhoid transmission, while $1 increases in the overall sewer system investments were associated with estimated 6% (95% confidence interval: 4-9%) decreases. Our findings aid in the understanding of typhoid transmission dynamics and potential impacts of water and sanitation improvements, and can inform cost-effectiveness analyses of interventions to reduce the typhoid burden