The Network Survival Method for Estimating Adult Mortality: Evidence From a Survey Experiment in Rwanda.

Adult death rates are a critical indicator of population health and well-being. Wealthy countries have high-quality vital registration systems, but poor countries lack this infrastructure and must rely on estimates that are often problematic. In this article, we introduce the network survival method, a new approach for estimating adult death rates. We derive the precise conditions under which it produces consistent and unbiased estimates. Further, we develop an analytical framework for sensitivity analysis. To assess the performance of the network survival method in a realistic setting, we conducted a nationally representative survey experiment in Rwanda (n = 4,669). Network survival estimates were similar to estimates from other methods, even though the network survival estimates were made with substantially smaller samples and are based entirely on data from Rwanda, with no need for model life tables or pooling of data from other countries. Our analytic results demonstrate that the network survival method has attractive properties, and our empirical results show that this method can be used in countries where reliable estimates of adult death rates are sorely needed

A spectroscopic investigation of the O-type star population in four Cygnus OB associations. II. Determination of the fundamental parameters

Aims. Having established the binary status of nineteen O-type stars located in four Cygnus OB associations, we now determine their fundamental parameters to constrain their properties and their evolutionary status. We also investigate their surface nitrogen abundances, which we compare with other results from the literature obtained for galactic O-type stars. Methods. Using optical spectra collected for each object in our sample and some UV data from the archives, we apply the CMFGEN atmosphere code to determine their main properties. For the binary systems, we have disentangled the components to obtain their individual spectra and investigate them as if they were single stars. Results. We find that the distances of several presumably single O-type stars seem poorly constrained because their luminosities are not in agreement with the "standard" luminosities of stars with similar spectral types. The ages of these O-type stars are all less than 7 Myrs. Therefore, the ages of these stars agree with those, quoted in the literature, of the four associations, except for CygOB8 for which the stars seem older than the association itself. However, we point out that the distance of certain stars is debatable relative to values found in the literature. The N content of these stars put in perspective with N contents of several other galactic O-type stars seems to draw the same five groups as found in the "Hunter" diagram for the O and B-type stars in the LMC even though their locations are obviously different. We determine mass-loss rates for several objects from the Halpha line and UV spectra. Finally, we confirm the "mass discrepancy" especially for O stars with masses smaller than 30 Msun. .Comment: 11 pages, and 26 pages of Appendix. A&A in pres

Apsidal motion in the massive binary HD152218

Massive binary systems are important laboratories in which to probe the properties of massive stars and stellar physics in general. In this context, we analysed optical spectroscopy and photometry of the eccentric short-period early-type binary HD 152218 in the young open cluster NGC 6231. We reconstructed the spectra of the individual stars using a separating code. The individual spectra were then compared with synthetic spectra obtained with the CMFGEN model atmosphere code. We furthermore analysed the light curve of the binary and used it to constrain the orbital inclination and to derive absolute masses of 19.8 +/- 1.5 and 15.0 +/- 1.1 solar masses. Combining radial velocity measurements from over 60 years, we show that the system displays apsidal motion at a rate of (2.04^{+.23}_{-.24}) degree/year. Solving the Clairaut-Radau equation, we used stellar evolution models, obtained with the CLES code, to compute the internal structure constants and to evaluate the theoretically predicted rate of apsidal motion as a function of stellar age and primary mass. In this way, we determine an age of 5.8 +/- 0.6 Myr for HD 152218, which is towards the higher end of, but compatible with, the range of ages of the massive star population of NGC 6231 as determined from isochrone fitting.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Evidence for a physically bound third component in HD 150136

Context. HD150136 is one of the nearest systems harbouring an O3 star. Although this system was for a long time considered as binary, more recent investigations have suggested the possible existence of a third component. Aims. We present a detailed analysis of HD 150136 to confirm the triple nature of this system. In addition, we investigate the physical properties of the individual components of this system. Methods. We analysed high-resolution, high signal-to-noise data collected through multi-epoch runs spread over ten years. We applied a disentangling program to refine the radial velocities and to obtain the individual spectra of each star. With the radial velocities, we computed the orbital solution of the inner system, and we describe the main properties of the orbit of the outer star such as the preliminary mass ratio, the eccentricity, and the orbital-period range. With the individual spectra, we determined the stellar parameters of each star by means of the CMFGEN atmosphere code. Results. We offer clear evidence that HD 150136 is a triple system composed of an O3V((f\ast))-3.5V((f+)), an O5.5-6V((f)), and an O6.5-7V((f)) star. The three stars are between 0-3 Myr old. We derive dynamical masses of about 64, 40, and 35 Msun for the primary, the secondary and the third components by assuming an inclination of 49{\deg}. It currently corresponds to one of the most massive systems in our galaxy. The third star moves with a period in the range of 2950 to 5500 d on an outer orbit with an eccentricity of at least 0.3. This discovery makes HD 150136 the first confirmed triple system with an O3 primary star. However, because of the long orbital period, our dataset is not sufficient to constrain the orbital solution of the tertiary component with high accuracy.Comment: 13 pages, 11 figures, accepted at A&

Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013

OBJECTIVE: Describe modifications to the latest version of the Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) Estimation and Projection Package component of Spectrum (EPP 2013) to improve prevalence fitting and incidence trend estimation in national epidemics and global estimates of HIV burden. METHODS: Key changes made under the guidance of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections include: availability of a range of incidence calculation models and guidance for selecting a model; a shift to reporting the Bayesian median instead of the maximum likelihood estimate; procedures for comparison and validation against reported HIV and AIDS data; incorporation of national surveys as an integral part of the fitting and calibration procedure, allowing survey trends to inform the fit; improved antenatal clinic calibration procedures in countries without surveys; adjustment of national antiretroviral therapy reports used in the fitting to include only those aged 15–49 years; better estimates of mortality among people who inject drugs; and enhancements to speed fitting. RESULTS: The revised models in EPP 2013 allow closer fits to observed prevalence trend data and reflect improving understanding of HIV epidemics and associated data. CONCLUSION: Spectrum and EPP continue to adapt to make better use of the existing data sources, incorporate new sources of information in their fitting and validation procedures, and correct for quantifiable biases in inputs as they are identified and understood. These adaptations provide countries with better calibrated estimates of incidence and prevalence, which increase epidemic understanding and provide a solid base for program and policy planning

A new investigation of the binary HD 48099

With an orbital period of about 3.078 days, the double-lined spectroscopic binary HD 48099 is, still now, the only short-period O+O system known in the Mon OB2 association. Even though an orbital solution has already been derived for this system, few information are available about the individual stars. We present, in this paper, the results of a long-term spectroscopic campaign. We derive a new orbital solution and apply a disentangling method to recover the mean spectrum of each star. To improve our knowledge concerning both components, we determine their spectral classifications and their projected rotational velocities. We also constrain the main stellar parameters of both stars by using the CMFGEN atmosphere code and provide the wind properties for the primary star through the study of IUE spectra. This investigation reveals that HD 48099 is an O5.5 V((f))+O9 V binary with M_1 sin^3 i = 0.70 M_{\sun} and M_2 sin^3 i = 0.39 M_{\sun}, implying a rather low orbital inclination. This result, combined with both a large effective temperature and log g, suggests that the primary star (v sini ~ 91 km s^-1) is actually a fast rotator with a strongly clumped wind and a nitrogen abundance of about 8 times the solar value.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, accepted by Ap

Children's Planning Performance in the Zoo Map Task (BADS-C) : Is It Driven by General Cognitive Ability, Executive Functioning, or Prospection?

Preparation of this article was partially funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF; 100014_152841) and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Council of Canada (NSERC; RGPIN-2015-03774).Peer reviewedPostprin

First orbital solution for the non-thermal emitter Cyg OB2 #9

After the first detection of its binary nature, the spectroscopic monitoring of the non-thermal radio emitter Cyg OB2 #9 (P=2.4yrs) has continued, doubling the number of available spectra of the star. Since the discovery paper of 2008, a second periastron passage has occurred in February 2009. Using a variety of techniques, the radial velocities could be estimated and a first, preliminary orbital solution was derived from the HeI5876 line. The mass ratio appears close to unity and the eccentricity is large, 0.7--0.75. X-ray data from 2004 and 2007 are also analyzed in quest of peculiarities linked to binarity. The observations reveal no large overluminosity nor strong hardness, but it must be noted that the high-energy data were taken after the periastron passage, at a time where colliding wind emission may be low. Some unusual X-ray variability is however detected, with a 10% flux decrease between 2004 and 2007. To clarify their origin and find a more obvious signature of the wind-wind collision, additional data, taken at periastron and close to it, are needed.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures, accepted by Ap

Efficient IoT-enabled Landslide Monitoring

Landslides pose significant socio-economic threats to areas whose geography favors them. Currently existing landslide monitoring methods and techniques are characterized by significant limitations both in technical terms (quality and frequency of data) and in terms of usability (high inferred costs, requirement of very high expertise). In this work we present an innovative landslide monitoring system that leverages state-of-the-art IoT technologies. The system consists of a set of autonomous sensing devices equipped with a sensor suit specifically tailored for monitoring landslides. The devices take sensory measurements at frequent intervals - while operating at a very low duty cycle - and transmit them over the SigFox network to a data server powered by ELK stack for curation and visualization. The system has been successfully deployed in a landslide site at Bournemouth, UK providing the local authorities with a new means of efficient and remote monitoring. The system follows a modular scalable architecture and has been proven to be highly reliable. As a result, there are plans for its use to be extended to other parts of the Bournemouth area as well as of the UK