Combatant recruitment and the outcome of war

Why do some civil wars terminate soon, with victory of one party over theother? What determines if the winner is the incumbent or the rebel group?Why do other conflicts last longer? We propose a simple model in whichthe power of each armed group depends on the number of combatants itis able to recruit. This is in turn a function of the relative 'distance' between group leaderships and potential recruits. We emphasize the moralhazard problem of recruitment: fighting is costly and risky so combatantshave the incentive to defect from their task. They can also desert alto-gether and join the enemy. This incentive is stronger the farther away thefighter is from the principal, since monitoring becomes increasingly costly.Bigger armies have more power but less monitoring capacity to preventdefection and desertion. This general framework allows a variety of interpretations of what type of proximity matters for building strong cohesivearmies ranging from ethnic distance to geographic dispersion. Di¤erentassumptions about the distribution of potential fighters along the relevantdimension of conflict lead to di¤erent equilibria. We characterize these,discuss the implied outcome in terms of who wins the war, and illustratewith historical and contemporaneous case studies.

The energy demand in the manufacturing sector of Pakistan: some further results

Cataloged from PDF version of article.The purpose of this study was to re-examine the role of energy in the manufacturing sector of Pakistan using a Partial Equilibrium Approach. GL restricted cost function along with the factor demand equations were estimated using Zellner's iterative procedure. Higher energy prices do not seem to adversely affect investment in capital. Substitution possibilities between energy and non-energy inputs are very limited and therefore energy price hikes may directly affect the cost of production. Inter-fuel cross price elasticities indicate that there are substitution possibilities between electricity and gas. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: Q41

Kompetensi Guru dalam Perencanaan Pembelajaran di Sdn 2 Banda Aceh

Kata kunci : Kompetensi guru, perencanaan pembelajaran berbasis kurikulum 2013 Dalam proses pembelajaran merencanakan dan menyusun pembelajaran adalah tugas wajib guru agar pembelajaran yang diharapkan sesuai dengan pembelajaran yang akan terjadi. Penelitian ini berupaya menggambarkan kemampuan guru dalam menyusun perencanaan pembelajaran di SDN 2 Banda Aceh. Secara khusus penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui kompetensi guru dalam perencanaan pembelajaran di SDN 2 Banda Aceh. Pendekatan yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah pendekatan kualitatif dalam jenis penelitian deskriptif. Data penelitian ini bersumber dari narasumber yang telah diwawancarai, sedangkan sumber data adalah guru-guru kelas yang berada di SDN 2 Banda Aceh. Proses pengumpulan data dilakukan dengan teknik daftar cek (Check List), wawancara dan dokumentasi. Teknik wawancara yang dilakukan adalah wawancara semiterstruktur (Semistructure Interview). Dalam melakukan dokumentasi, peneliti mengkaji 10 silabus dan Rencana Pelaksanaan Pembelajaran (RPP) yang telah disusun oleh guru kelas di SDN 2 Banda Aceh. Agar data hasil wawancara dapat terpercaya, peneliti menggunakan alat bantu perekam berupa alat tulis dan media elektronik tape recorder.Berdasarkan analisis data, temuan penelitian ini dapat dikemukakan sebagai berikut. Pertama, ketika akan menyusun perencanaan pembelajaran guru akan: (1) menjadikan silabus sebagai pedoman dalam merancang Rencana Pelaksanaan Pembelajaran (RPP), (2) guru harus memiliki 4 kompetensi guru khususnya kompetensi pedagogik yaitu yang salah satu kemampuan dalam mengembangkan dan menyusun perencanaan pembelajaran, dan (3) menyusun Rencana Pelaksanaan Pembelajaran (RPP) sesuai dengan kurikulum yang berlaku.Simpulan penelitian ini adalah kompetensi guru di SDN 2 Banda Aceh dalam perencanaan pembelajaran, sudah terlihat dari cara guru merencanakan dan menyusun Rencana Pelaksanaan Pembelajaran (RPP) yang sesuai dengan kurikulum 2013 dan dengan memperlihatkan kompetensi sebagai seorang guru yang khususnya memiliki kompetensi pedagogik dalam merencanakan pembelajaran disekolah

Pemodelan Lahan Rawa Pasang Surut Menggunakan Teknologi Penginderaan Jauh Dan Gis Untuk Penentuan Zona Hidrotopografi (Studi Kasus: Delta Pulau Petak Kalimantan)

Pengembangan lahan rawa berarti mengubah lahan rawa sedemikian rupa sehingga tercipta suatu lingkungan baru yang cocok untuk pengembangan budidaya pertanian dan pemukiman. Proses pengembangan lahan dapat memanfaatkan teknologi penginderaan jauh dan geography infomation system (GIS) untuk membuat digital elevation model (DEM). Pembuatan model menerapkan metode interpretasi dan rektifikasi citra dengan cara interpolasi irregular pada tiap rona pixcel citra dan mengacu pada data perwakilan dilapangan. Zona-zona hidrotopografi di dapat dengan menganalisis model lahan komparatif terhadap komponen elevasi muka air. Hasil pemodelan menunjukan karakteristik lahan Delta Pulau Petak terbentuk dari dua sungai besar, Sungai Barito sepanjang 139,58 km dan Sungai Murung-Kapuas sepanjang 120,30 km. Batas ketinggian berjumlah 18 klaster dengan ketinggian maksimum mencapai +4 meter dan ketinggian minimum mencapai -18 meter terhadap muka air rerata. Luas lahan 284.936,81 ha dan jarak keliling 298,04 km. Relief topografi lahan relatif datar. Luas wilayah terluapi air pasang berdasarkan bagian zona hidrotopografi untuk zona A mencapai 35% dengan ketinggian air 0,39 meter, zona B mencapai 61% dengan tinggi air 0,96 meter dan zona C mencapai 4% dengan tinggi air 1,32 meter. Kegunaan lain dari model ini dapat membuat sistem manajemen basis data jaringan irigasi pulau petak. Validasi model ini telah dilakukan dilapangan dengan hasil memuaska

Community Language Learning Method: Enhancing Secondary School Students' English Vocabulary At SMP Negeri 4 Kota Ternate

Vocabulary is a fundamental unit in learning a language. Vocabulary drives us in learning and understanding English skills (reading, listening, speaking, and writing). Without vocabulary, a reader, listener, speaker, or writer does nothing. This study attempted to carry out Community Language Learning Method to enhance secondary school students' English vocabulary. Its hypotheses are (1) Community Language Learning Method cannot enhance secondary school students' English vocabulary (H0) and (2) Community Language Learning Method enhance secondary school students' English vocabulary (H1). This study used quantitative study by applying experimental design of one group pretest-posttest. The population was secondary school students at SMP Negri 4 Kota Ternate. The number of the population were 337 students. The sample was 35 students from the secondary school. They classified into two sexes namely; 15 male students and 20 female students. Simple random sampling technique used in taking the sample. The instrument applied in this study was a multiple choice test. It consisted of 30 items. The data were collected by applying pretest, treatment, and posttest. The data obtained were analyzed by using t-test formula from SPSS 16 version. Data findings and analysis on score mean and standard deviation indicated that pretest score mean was lower then posttest = (15.625), than for the posttest score mean was higher than pretest = (72.69). And, it compared standard deviation of pretest and posttest, standard deviation score of pretest and posttest showed difference each other. Standard deviation score of pretest = (15.625) and posttest = (10.707). it means that the independent variable had an effect on the total score of the subject (dependent variable). Moreover, t-test results showed that the average score in posttest x2 = 40.163. is greater than pretest x1 = 15.037. by applying the level of significance of 0.5. Therefore, its conclusion that the Community Language Learning Method is effective in teaching English vocabulary to the secondary school students. The alternative hypothesis stating that the Community Language Learning Method enhance students' English vocabulary was accepted (H1)and null hypothesis stating that the Community Language Learning Method cannot enhance students' English vocabulary was rejected (H0)

Pengaruh Servant Leadersip terhadap Kinerja Pegawai

Penelitian ini melihat Pengaruh Servant Leadership terhadap kinerja pegawai pada kantor kecamatan biringkanaya makassar hasilnya variabel kinerja pegawai. terdapat pengaruh positif dan signifikan pada variabel Servant Leadership terhadap kinerja pegawai. Dengan melihat hasil penelitian pada Kantor Kantor Kecamatan Biringkanaya yaitu Servant Leadership memiliki peranan penting terhadap kinerja pegawai makanya harus perluh ditingkatkan. Para pimpinan juga harus lebih memperhatikan para pegawainya dengan memberikan keleluasaan dalam berekspresi agar kinerja yang dimiliki semakin bertambah dan hasilnya pun meningkat

Evaluasi Karakteristik Kualitas Air Danau Limboto

This research aims at evaluating water-quality characteristics in Limboto Lake ecosystem in accordance with its designation. The research took place in Limboto Lake and the rivers that drain water into the lake. Samples were taken at 5 spots in Limboto Lake and 8 spots at the surrounding rivers. The rivers that flow into Limboto Lake and were made as samples consisted of Alo River (3 samples), Toyidito River (2 samples), Molamahu River (1 sample), Molalahu River (1 sample) and also Alopohu Dam (1 sample). Instruments used were pH meter and thermometer for physical parameters, and AAS for chemical parameters. Microbiology was measured using MPN method. The results of the analysis indicated that the water quality in Limboto Lake and the surrounding rivers were polluted. The parameters of nitrate, phosphate and hydrogen sulfide were above the standard stipulated by the Government Regulation Number 82 of 2001