92 research outputs found

    A past discharges assimilation system for ensemble streamflow forecasts over France – Part 1: Description and validation of the assimilation system

    Get PDF
    International audienceTwo Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Systems (ESPSs) have been set up at M´et´eo-France. They are based on the French SIM distributed hydrometeorological model. A deterministic analysis run of SIM is used to initialize the two ESPSs. In order to obtain a better initial state, a past discharges assimilation system has been implemented into this analysis SIM run, using the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). Its role is to improve the model soil moisture by using streamflow observations in order to better simulate streamflow. The skills of the assimilation system were assessed for a 569-day period on six different configurations, including two different physics schemes of the model (the use of an exponential profile of hydraulic conductivity or not) and, for each one, three different ways of considering the model soil moisture in the BLUE state variables. Respect of the linearity hypothesis of the BLUE was verified by assessing of the impact of iterations of the BLUE. The configuration including the use of the exponential profile of hydraulic conductivity and the combination of the moisture of the two soil layers in the state variable showed a significant improvement of streamflow simulations. It led to a significantly better simulation than the reference one, and the lowest soil moisture corrections. These results were confirmed by the study of the impacts of the past discharge assimilation system on a set of 49 independent stations

    A past discharge assimilation system for ensemble streamflow forecasts over France – Part 2: Impact on the ensemble streamflow forecasts

    No full text
    International audienceThe use of ensemble streamflow forecasts is developing in the international flood forecasting services. Ensemble streamflow forecast systems can provide more accurate forecasts and useful information about the uncertainty of the forecasts, thus improving the assessment of risks. Nevertheless, these systems, like all hydrological forecasts, suffer from errors on initialization or on meteorological data, which lead to hydrological prediction errors. This article, which is the second part of a 2-part article, concerns the impacts of initial states, improved by a streamflow assimilation system, on an ensemble streamflow prediction system over France. An assimilation system was implemented to improve the streamflow analysis of the SAFRAN-ISBAMODCOU (SIM) hydro-meteorological suite, which initializes the ensemble streamflow forecasts at M´et´eo-France. This assimilation system, using the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE) and modifying the initial soil moisture states, showed an improvement of the streamflow analysis with low soil moisture increments. The final states of this suite were used to initialize the ensemble streamflow forecasts of M´et´eo-France, which are based on the SIM model and use the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 10-day Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). Two different configurations of the assimilation system were used in this study: the first with the classical SIM model and the second using improved soil physics in ISBA. The effects of the assimilation system on the ensemble streamflow forecasts were assessed for these two configurations, and a comparison was made with the original (i.e. without data assimilation and without the improved physics) ensemble streamflow forecasts. It is shown that the assimilation system improved most of the statistical scores usually computed for the validation of ensemble predictions (RMSE, Brier Skill Score and its decomposition, Ranked Probability Skill Score, False Alarm Rate, etc.), especially for the first few days of the time range. The assimilation was slightly more efficient for small basins than for large ones

    Monitoring of water and carbon fluxes using a land data assimilation system: a case study for southwestern France

    Get PDF
    International audienceA Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) able to ingest surface soil moisture (SSM) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) observations is tested at local scale to increase prediction accuracy for water and carbon fluxes. The ISBAA-gs Land Surface Model (LSM) is used together with LAI and the soil water content observations of a grassland at the SMOSREX experimental site in southwestern France for a seven-year period (2001-2007). Three configurations corresponding to contrasted model errors are considered: (1) best case (BC) simulation with locally observed atmospheric variables and model parameters, and locally observed SSM and LAI used in the assimilation, (2) same as (1) but with the precipitation forcing set to zero, (3) real case (RC)simulation with atmospheric variables and model parameters derived from regional atmospheric analyses and from climatological soil and vegetation properties, respectively. In configuration (3) two SSM time series are considered: the observed SSM using Thetaprobes, and SSM derived from the LEWIS L-band radiometer located 15m above the ground. Performance of the LDAS is examined in the three configurations described above with either one variable (either SSM or LAI) or two variables (both SSM and LAI) assimilated. The joint assimilation of SSM and LAI has a positive impact on the carbon, water, and heat fluxes. It represents a greater impact than assimilating one variable (either LAI or SSM). Moreover, the LDAS is able to counterbalance large errors in the precipitation forcing given as input to the model

    The SURFEXv7.2 land and ocean surface platform for coupled or offline simulation of Earth surface variables and fluxes

    Get PDF
    CC Attribution 3.0 License.Final revised paper also available at http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/6/929/2013/gmd-6-929-2013.pdfInternational audienceSURFEX is a new externalized land and ocean surface platform that describes the surface fluxes and the evolution of four types of surface: nature, town, inland water and ocean. It can be run either coupled or in offline mode. It is mostly based on pre-existing, well validated scientific models. It can be used in offline mode (from point scale to global runs) or fully coupled with an atmospheric model. SURFEX is able to simulate fluxes of carbon dioxide, chemical species, continental aerosols, sea salt and snow particles. It also includes a data assimilation module. The main principles of the organization of the surface are described first. Then, a survey is made of the scientific module (including the coupling strategy). Finally the main applications of the code are summarized. The current applications are extremely diverse, ranging from surface monitoring and hydrology to numerical weather prediction and global climate simulations. The validation work undertaken shows that replacing the pre-existing surface models by SURFEX in these applications is usually associated with improved skill, as the numerous scientific developments contained in this community code are used to good advantage

    The Necrotic Signal Induced by Mycophenolic Acid Overcomes Apoptosis-Resistance in Tumor Cells

    Get PDF
    The amount of inosine monophosphate dehydrogenase (IMPDH), a pivotal enzyme for the biosynthesis of the guanosine tri-phosphate (GTP), is frequently increased in tumor cells. The anti-viral agent ribavirin and the immunosuppressant mycophenolic acid (MPA) are potent inhibitors of IMPDH. We recently showed that IMPDH inhibition led to a necrotic signal requiring the activation of Cdc42.Herein, we strengthened the essential role played by this small GTPase in the necrotic signal by silencing Cdc42 and by the ectopic expression of a constitutive active mutant of Cdc42. Since resistance to apoptosis is an essential step for the tumorigenesis process, we next examined the effect of the MPA–mediated necrotic signal on different tumor cells demonstrating various mechanisms of resistance to apoptosis (Bcl2-, HSP70-, Lyn-, BCR-ABL–overexpressing cells). All tested cells remained sensitive to MPA–mediated necrotic signal. Furthermore, inhibition of IMPDH activity in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia cells was significantly more efficient at eliminating malignant cells than apoptotic inducers.These findings indicate that necrosis and apoptosis are split signals that share few if any common hub of signaling. In addition, the necrotic signaling pathway induced by depletion of the cellular amount of GTP/GDP would be of great interest to eliminate apoptotic-resistant tumor cells
    • …
    corecore