Proper account of long-term correlations in the observations improves state-space models' performances

State-space models are widely used in ecology to infer hidden behaviors. This study develops an extensivenumerical simulation-estimation experiment to evaluate the state decoding accuracy of four simplestate-space models. These models are obtained by combining different Markovian specifications (Markovand semi-Markov) for the hidden layer with the absence and presence of auto-correlation for the observationlayer. Model parameters are issued from two sets of real annotated trajectories. Three metrics aredeveloped to help interpret model performance. The first is the Hellinger distance between Markov andsemi-Markov sojourn time probability distributions. The second is sensitive to the overlap between theprobability density functions of state-dependent variables (e.g., speed variables). The third quantifies thedeterioration of the inference conditions between AR0 and AR1 formulations. It emerges that the most sensitivemodel choice concerns the auto-correlation of the random processes describing the state-dependentvariables. Opting for the absence of auto-correlation in the model while the state-dependent variables are actuallyauto-correlated, is detrimental to state decoding performance. Regarding the hidden layer, imposing aMarkov structure while the state process is semi-Markov does not impair the state decoding performances.The real-life estimates are consistent with our experimental finding that performance deteriorates whenthere are significant temporal correlations that are not accounted for in the model. In light of these findings,we recommend that researchers carefully consider the structure of the statistical model they suggest andconfirm its alignment with the process being modeled, especially when considering the auto-correlation ofobserved variables

Characteristics, management and outcome of acquired amegakaryocytic thrombocytopenia.

International audienc

Food for thought from French scientists for a revised EU Common Fisheries Policy to protect marine ecosystems and enhance fisheries performance

Since the 1980s, the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) has shaped European fisheries. It has often been criticised for being too prescriptive and, above all, for failing to protect either fishermen or ecosystems. The last reform dates back to the early 2010 s and has led to a slight but slow improvement in the state of ecosystems. Given that the CFP is in the process of evaluation, a group of French fishery scientists set up an initiative to add to the debate on what should be retained, reinforced or added to a possible new reform. This initiative came 10 years after a previous manifesto that presented their vision for fisheries in Europe. Four major issues emerged from the current initiative: (1) a need for transparency and simplification in fisheries management, (2) a need for more consultation and dialogue between stakeholders, (3) the urgency of the situation in the Mediterranean Sea, and (4) the necessity of putting into practice all research developments for an ecosystem approach to fisheries. Compared to 10 years ago, the response of scientists shows that the focus is no longer on achieving the maximum sustainable yield, but rather on the following steps to protect ecosystems and fisheries. An ecosystem approach to fisheries remains indispensable for both ecosystems and fishing activities. To this end, scientists put forward numerous proposals to improve the CFP, acknowledging that the final solutions should emerge from consultation with stakeholders. Climate change, an issue raised much more than in the manifest, reinforces the need to act

Combining thrombopoietin receptor agonists with immunosuppressive drugs in adult patients with multirefractory immune thrombocytopenia, an update on the French experience

International audienceCombining drugs could be an effective option for treating multirefractory ITP, that is, patients not responding to rituximab, thrombopoietin receptor agonists (TPO-RA) and splenectomy. We conducted a retrospective, multicenter, observational study including multirefractory ITP patients who received a combination of a TPO-RA and an immunosuppressive drug. We included 39 patients (67% women, median age 59 years [range 21-96]), with a median ITP duration of 57 months [3-393] and a median platelet count at initiation of 10 × 109 /L [1-35]. The combination regimen was given for a median duration of 12 months [1-103] and included eltrombopag (51%) or romiplostim (49%), associated with mycophenolate mofetil (54%), azathioprine (36%), cyclophosphamide (5%), cyclosporin (3%) or everolimus (3%). Overall, 30 patients (77%) achieved at least a response (platelet count ≥30 × 109 /L and at least doubling baseline during at least 3 months), including 24 complete responses (platelet count >100 × 109 /L during at least 3 months) with a median time to response of 30 days [7-270] and a median duration of response of 15 months [4-63]. Severe adverse event related to ITP treatment was observed in 31%. In conclusion, this study confirms that some patients with multirefractory ITP can achieve long lasting response with this combination

SEAwise Report on consistency of existing targets and limits for indicators in an ecosystem context

The SEAwise project works to deliver a fully operational tool that will allow fishers, managers, and policy makers to easily apply Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) in their fisheries. This SEAwise report investigates the consistency of existing targets and limits from the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). Trade-offs between different objectives (ecological, economic, social), targets and limits are highlighted. A wide range of model types (from bio-economic to full ecosystem models) has been applied to various case study areas accross the North East Atlantic and Mediterranean. Although model predictions are by nature uncertain, this study provides important information on likely inconsistencies between existing targets and limits and trade-offs expected under ecosystem- based fisheries management (EBFM). The scenarios investigated include the current range of management applied in terms of the Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) concept (i.e. strict MSY approach vs. Pretty Good Yield (PGY) approach allowing sustainable deviations from single species point estimates). The landing obligation is a key aspect of current fisheries management and was fully considered, in particular for mixed demersal fisheries.Maintaining current fishing effort without further management measures was the least sustainable option in nearly all cases studies. This approach led to increased risk of stocks falling below critical biomass limits. Although the fishing effort adaptions needed is highly case specific, this indicates that further management measures are likely to be needed to ensure a sustainable exploitation of all stocks.Scenarios applying a strict MSY approach in combination with the landing obligation as upper limit with fisheries ending when the first stock reaches in most case studies led to the lowest fishing effort. This had positive effects on MSFD related indicators such as bycatch of Protected, Endangered and Threatened (PET) species, benthic impact and the Large Fish Indicator as well as global indicators such as CO emission or ecosystem-based indicators like catch per . However, this scenario often led to the lowest catches from mixed demersal fisheries due to strong choke effects because fleets had to stop when their first quota was exhausted. This reduces social indicators such as food security, employment and wages. In terms of economic performance, the gains and loses were highly case specific. Scenarios applying the Pretty Good Yield concept and allowing sustainable deviations from the point estimate when stocks are in a healthy state often outperformed the scenarios applying as strict upper limit. Such scenarios, applying a more flexible interpretation of the MSY concept, led to reduced fishing effort compared to the status quo effort, but relaxed choke situations in mixed demersal fisheries to some extent leading to higher gross profits and in some case studies also to higher catches. Hence, they may constitute a compromise between the need to attain social as well as ecological objectives. Whether the associated effort levels lead to conflicts with MSFD objectives must be analysed when more internationally agreed thresholds become available for e.g., bycatch of PET species or benthic impact.The majority of case studies exceeded suggested thresholds for the global ecosystem indicators catch per km or primary production even under scenarios with high effort reductions. This can be explained to some extent by the fact that these indices are mainly driven by pelagic and industrial fisheries not always part of the models applied. Nevertheless, it indicates potential conflicts with such more holistic ecosystem indicators in their current form.Additional trade-offs in terms of yield were identified within the food web if e.g., demersal piscivorous predators feed on small pelagic fish and both groups are fished. Further, in case studies where small-scale fisheries (SSF) play an important role (e.g., Eastern Ionian Sea) additional trade-offs became apparent as different scenarios led to different ratios between revenues from small scale fisheries and revenues from large-scale fisheries. This adds another level of complexity when such aspects need to be taken more into account in future fisheries management under EBFM.The modelling assumed current selectivities and catchabilities will be maintained in the future. Especially trade-offs arising from fleets having to stop fishing when their first quota is exhausted or when e.g., a threshold for bycatch of PET species is reached may be resolved by improving selectivities via technical measures (e.g., closed areas or innovative gears) in the future. Deliverable 6.8 in month 36 will test such scenarios. Furthermore, the list of indicators and their targets and limits will be updated based on research within and outside SEAwise. Predictive capability of models will be enhanced by incorporating improved biological and economic sub-models in relation to environmental change. Climate change scenarios will be run and new harvest control rules (HCRs), proposed by SEAwise, will be tested. Finally, consistent targets and limits will be proposed for implementing EBFM