Basin-Wavelength Equatorial Deep Jet Signals across Three Oceans

Equatorial deep jets (EDJs) are equatorially trapped, stacked, zonal currents that reverse direction every few hundred meters in depth throughout much of the water column. This study evaluates their structure observationally in all three oceans using new high-vertical-resolution Argo float conductivity–temperature–depth (CTD) instrument profiles from 2010 to 2014 augmented with historical shipboard CTD data from 1972 to 2014 and lower-vertical-resolution Argo float profiles from 2007 to 2014. The vertical strain of density is calculated from the profiles and analyzed in a stretched vertical coordinate system determined from the mean vertical density structure. The power spectra of vertical strain in each basin are analyzed using wavelet decomposition. In the Indian and Pacific Oceans, there are two distinct peaks in the power spectra, one Kelvin wave–like and the other entirely consistent with the dispersion relation of a linear, first meridional mode, equatorial Rossby wave. In the Atlantic Ocean, the first meridional mode Rossby wave signature is very strong and dominates. In all three ocean basins, Rossby wave–like signatures are coherent across the basin width and appear to have wavelengths the scale of the basin width, with periods of about 5 yr in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans and about 12 yr in the Pacific Ocean. Their observed meridional scales are about 1.5 times the linear theoretical values. Their phase propagation is downward with time, implying upward energy propagation if linear wave dynamics hold

Residual overturning circulation and its connection to Southern Ocean dynamics

Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution September 2020.Over the last 20 years, our understanding of the meridional overturning circulation has improved, but primarily in a two-dimensional, zonally-averaged framework. In this thesis, I have pushed beyond this simplification and shown that the additional complexity of meanders, storm tracks, and other zonal asymmetries is necessary to reproduce the lowest-order behavior of the overturning circulation. First I examined the role of basin width for determining whether the Atlantic or Pacific oceans experience deep convection. I used a two layered model and a rectangular single-basin model to show that the basin width, in combination with scalings for the overturning circulation make the overturning relatively weaker in the wider basin, priming it for a convection shut down. In addition to this large-scale work, I have examined Southern Ocean-like meanders using a hierarchy of idealized models to understand the role of bottom topography in determining how the large-scale circulation responds to climate change scenarios. These are useful because they preserve the lowest-order behavior, while remaining simple enough to understand. I tested the response of the stratification and transport in the Southern Ocean to changes in wind using a highly-idealized two-layer quasi-geostrophic model. In addition to showing that meanders are necessary to reproduce the behavior of the Southern Ocean, I found that strong winds concentrate the baroclinic and barotropic instabilities downstream of the bottom topography and weaken the instabilities elsewhere due to a form-drag process. With weak winds, however, the system is essentially symmetric in longitude, like a flat-bottomed ocean. This result is consistent with observations of elevated turbulence downstream of major topography in the Southern Ocean. My next study investigated a more realistic Southern Ocean-like channel, with and without bottom topography, and examined the three-dimensional circulation in order to understand where vertical transport occurs and develop a picture of the pathways taken by each individual water parcel. I found that the vertical transport happens in very isolated locations, just downstream of topography. Finally, I added a biogeochemical model to my simulations and found that carbon fluxes are enhanced near topography, again highlighting the role of zonal asymmetries.I have been funded by the American Meteorological Society’s Graduate Fellowship, as well as the National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship. I have also been supported by NSF OCE-1536515 and NCAR Large Scale Computing Award UMIT0025

Surface exchange between the Weddell and Scotia Seas

Within Drake Passage, the southern flank of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) hosts the ventilation of deep water, the injection of Antarctic shelf waters and interactions between westward and eastward boundary currents. This exchange is explored through the trajectories of forty surface drifters released in January 2012 in the northwestern Weddell Sea. The drifters detail Lagrangian transport pathways between the eastern Antarctic Peninsula and sites of elevated chlorophyll in the Scotia Sea. ACC frontal currents, in particular the Southern ACC Front, act as dynamical transport barriers to the drifters and influence surface chlorophyll distributions, indicating that ACC fronts partition Weddell source waters in the Scotia Sea. Interannual fluctuations in surface chlorophyll in the south Scotia Sea and the northern Weddell Sea covary. This suggests that Scotia Sea ecosystem dynamics are linked to water properties injected from the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula and respond to Weddell Gyre circulation changes

Weddell Sea Export Pathways from Surface Drifters

The complex export pathways that connect the surface waters of the Weddell Sea with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current influence water mass modification, nutrient fluxes, and ecosystem dynamics. To study this exchange, 40 surface drifters, equipped with temperature sensors, were released into the northwestern Weddell Sea’s continental shelf and slope frontal system in late January 2012. Comparison of the drifter trajectories with a similar deployment in early February 2007 provides insight into the interannual variability of the surface circulation in this region. Observed differences in the 2007 and 2012 drifter trajectories are related to a variable surface circulation responding to changes in wind stress curl over the Weddell Gyre. Differences between northwestern Weddell Sea properties in 2007 and 2012 include 1) an enhanced cyclonic wind stress forcing over the Weddell Gyre in 2012; 2) an acceleration of the Antarctic Slope Current (ASC) and an offshore shift of the primary drifter export pathway in 2012; and 3) a strengthening of the Coastal Current (CC) over the continental shelf in 2007. The relationship between wind stress forcing and surface circulation is reproduced over a longer time period in virtual drifter deployments advected by a remotely sensed surface velocity product. The mean offshore position and speed of the drifter trajectories are correlated with the wind stress curl over the Weddell Gyre, although with different temporal lags. The drifter observations are consistent with recent modeling studies suggesting that Weddell Sea boundary current variability can significantly impact the rate and source of exported surface waters to the Scotia Sea, a process that determines regional chlorophyll distributions

Basin-width dependence of northern deep convection

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 47(15), (2020): e2020GL089135, doi:10.1029/2020GL089135.Convection penetrates to the ocean bottom in the North Atlantic but not in the North Pacific. This study examines the role of basin width in shutting down high‐latitude ocean convection. Deep convection is triggered by polar cooling, but it is opposed by precipitation. A two‐layer analytical model illustrates that the overturning circulation acts to mitigate the effect of precipitation by advecting salty, dense water from subtropical latitudes to polar latitudes. The nonlinear dependence of the overturning strength on basin width makes it more efficient in a narrow basin, resulting in a convection shutdown at a stronger freshwater forcing. These predictions are confirmed by simulations with a general circulation model configured with a single closed basin to the north and a reentrant channel to the south. This suggests that basin width may play a role in suppressing convection in the North Pacific but not in the North Atlantic.M. K. Y. and R. F. acknowledge support through National Science Foundation (NSF) Awards OCE‐1536515 and AGS‐1835576. M. K. Y. acknowledges funding from the National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship and the American Meteorological Society Graduate Student Fellowship. G. R. F. was supported by NSF OCE‐1459702.2020-01-202

Basin‐Width Dependence of Northern Deep Convection

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 47(15), (2020): e2020GL089135, doi:10.1029/2020GL089135.Convection penetrates to the ocean bottom in the North Atlantic but not in the North Pacific. This study examines the role of basin width in shutting down high‐latitude ocean convection. Deep convection is triggered by polar cooling, but it is opposed by precipitation. A two‐layer analytical model illustrates that the overturning circulation acts to mitigate the effect of precipitation by advecting salty, dense water from subtropical latitudes to polar latitudes. The nonlinear dependence of the overturning strength on basin width makes it more efficient in a narrow basin, resulting in a convection shutdown at a stronger freshwater forcing. These predictions are confirmed by simulations with a general circulation model configured with a single closed basin to the north and a reentrant channel to the south. This suggests that basin width may play a role in suppressing convection in the North Pacific but not in the North Atlantic.M. K. Y. and R. F. acknowledge support through National Science Foundation (NSF) Awards OCE‐1536515 and AGS‐1835576. M. K. Y. acknowledges funding from the National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship and the American Meteorological Society Graduate Student Fellowship. G. R. F. was supported by NSF OCE‐1459702.2020-01-202

A Bayesian reanalysis of the Standard versus Accelerated Initiation of Renal-Replacement Therapy in Acute Kidney Injury (STARRT-AKI) trial

Background Timing of initiation of kidney-replacement therapy (KRT) in critically ill patients remains controversial. The Standard versus Accelerated Initiation of Renal-Replacement Therapy in Acute Kidney Injury (STARRT-AKI) trial compared two strategies of KRT initiation (accelerated versus standard) in critically ill patients with acute kidney injury and found neutral results for 90-day all-cause mortality. Probabilistic exploration of the trial endpoints may enable greater understanding of the trial findings. We aimed to perform a reanalysis using a Bayesian framework. Methods We performed a secondary analysis of all 2927 patients randomized in multi-national STARRT-AKI trial, performed at 168 centers in 15 countries. The primary endpoint, 90-day all-cause mortality, was evaluated using hierarchical Bayesian logistic regression. A spectrum of priors includes optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic priors, along with priors informed from earlier clinical trials. Secondary endpoints (KRT-free days and hospital-free days) were assessed using zero–one inflated beta regression. Results The posterior probability of benefit comparing an accelerated versus a standard KRT initiation strategy for the primary endpoint suggested no important difference, regardless of the prior used (absolute difference of 0.13% [95% credible interval [CrI] − 3.30%; 3.40%], − 0.39% [95% CrI − 3.46%; 3.00%], and 0.64% [95% CrI − 2.53%; 3.88%] for neutral, optimistic, and pessimistic priors, respectively). There was a very low probability that the effect size was equal or larger than a consensus-defined minimal clinically important difference. Patients allocated to the accelerated strategy had a lower number of KRT-free days (median absolute difference of − 3.55 days [95% CrI − 6.38; − 0.48]), with a probability that the accelerated strategy was associated with more KRT-free days of 0.008. Hospital-free days were similar between strategies, with the accelerated strategy having a median absolute difference of 0.48 more hospital-free days (95% CrI − 1.87; 2.72) compared with the standard strategy and the probability that the accelerated strategy had more hospital-free days was 0.66. Conclusions In a Bayesian reanalysis of the STARRT-AKI trial, we found very low probability that an accelerated strategy has clinically important benefits compared with the standard strategy. Patients receiving the accelerated strategy probably have fewer days alive and KRT-free. These findings do not support the adoption of an accelerated strategy of KRT initiation