Ten reasons why a no-deal Brexit may yet be avoided

Between metaphors about tunnels and submarine and the contradictory statements by UK ministers and the absence of any serious Commons debate on Brexit, it is hard to say with certainty what will happen in the EU-UK talks especially as no-one knows when they will end. But here are ten points which suggest a deal is growing more likely in contrast to mid-year when the Brexit commentariat in the UK, when journalists, think-tankers, academics and many EU specialists were very pessimistic and predicting a No Deal or WTO crash out. Here are ten reasons why such a dire outcome may yet be avoided, writes Denis MacShane

Is coronavirus Boris Johnson's get out of jail card on Brexit?

Economic activity worldwide has slowed almost to a stop. Claims that non-EU countries were queuing up to sign advantageous trade deals with Britain now ring hollow, as governments everywhere have imposed draconian controls on the movement of people and goods. So is coronavirus Boris Johnson's get out of jail card on Brexit, asks Denis MacShane

Churchill the European has been written out of history

Churchill devoted considerable resources, money, speech-making, and political organization to the cause of European unity. Today, Churchill the European is being written out of British history, writes Denis MacShane

How the Brexit negotiations can end without war being declared

How the Brexit negotiations can end without war being declared, asks Denis MacShane? What’s needed is a compromise, which used to be a British speciality, he argues

User education, bibliographic instruction or information literacy : semantic argument or philosophical debate

Information literacy, bibliographic instruction or user education? These terms are widely used to describe the programmes designed to assist library clients in their use of library resources. There are as many variations in these programmes as there libraries. This study is designed to satisfy a professional curiosity regarding the appropriate uses of the above terms. Whilst the terms are often used interchangeably in the literature, their definitions suggest that this should not be occurring. Models of information seeking behaviours are compared with the definitions for user education, information literacy and bibliographic instruction. The matching of programme aims and objectives with the definitions of the three terms is an important aspect in the correct usage of the terms

The impacts of risk and competition on bank profitability in China

Several rounds of banking reforms in China have aimed to increase the competitive condition and further enhance stability in the Chinese banking sector, while the joint effects of competition and risk-taking behaviour on the profitability in the banking sector have not been studied well enough so far in the literature. The current study contributes to the empirical literature by testing the impacts of risk and competition on profitability in the Chinese banking industry (state-owned, joint-stock and city commercial banks) over the period 2003-2011 under a one-step Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) system estimator. The results do not show any robust finding with regards to the impacts of competition and risk on bank profitability, while it is found that Chinese bank profitability is affected by taxation, overhead cost, labour productivity and inflation. The study provides policy implications to the Chinese banking industry and different ownership types of Chinese commercial banks

Extended book review: Transnational trade unionism: dream and reality

Book review of : Reiner Tosstorff, The Red International of Labour Unions (RILU), 1920–1937, Leiden: Brill, 2016; 918 pp.: ISBN 9789004236646, (hbk); Chicago, IL: Haymarket Books, 2018; 918 pp.: ISBN 9781608468164, (pbk

Solidarity after the Coup

The paradox of Poland is quite straightforward. The workers, intellectuals and activists who formed Solidarity did not know how to convert the gains of August 1980 into permanent change. The generals, security officers and party hardliners who declared a 'state of war' on 13 December 1981 did not know how to convert the locking up of Lech Walesa and other Solidarity leaders into a lasting solution of the country's economic and social problems. The list of problems without easy answers is long enough inside Poland. But the history of Solidarity and the continuing struggle of the Polish working class has presented a number of questions for Western socialists: what is the nature of Russian and East European political systems and what should be the relationships between organisations of the Western labour movement-political parties and trade unionsand organisations with similar names in Comecon countries? Also Western socialists have had to consider what political and economic response would best support Solidarity. The situation has produced some strange bedfellows. Ultra-leftists have joined forces with right-wing reactionaries in demanding a complete economic boycott of Poland and the Soviet Union and a withdrawal of credit that would push Poland into default. Western Communist Parties have stood shoulder to shoulder with bankers in Wall Street, the City and West Germany, in arguing against any interruption in financial and economic relationships with Poland. The paradoxes stretch far beyond the Polish frontier

Japanese Motivations to Study ESL Abroad in New Zealand: Their Similarities and Differences to Motivations Found Within Pleasure Travel

The export education industry is a multi-billion dollar industry worldwide (Payne 2009) that sees millions of people travelling abroad every year (Weaver 2003). In New Zealand export education is the fifth largest export, employing some 32,000 people, and contributing an estimated NZ$2.3 billion dollars to the New Zealand economy (New Zealand Herald 2009; ENZ 2009; Payne 2009). It is important for destinations to have some understanding of the motivations that influence travel decisions so that they can successfully market themselves (Gnoth 1997). Such knowledge is arguably very important for New Zealand, a small global player in the competitive export education industry, which has had a decline in international student numbers in recent years. This research explores push factor motivations amongst Japanese adults undertaking short-term English study at ELS institutions in New Zealand. This area is being investigated because language learning is one of the world’s most important segments of education based tourism, Japan is one of New Zealand’s key education markets, most Japanese participating in export education in New Zealand are enrolled in English language schools, and poignantly because the number of Japanese involved in export education in New Zealand has been on the decline for a number of years (MOE 2006; MOE 2010; Statistics New Zealand 2010). In the face of such a decline it is important to develop knowledge of what motivates individuals. This knowledge has the potential to help the export education industry in New Zealand stem or reverse the decline in the Japanese export education market. This study compares push motivations of Japanese ESL students in New Zealand to push factor motivations from the general tourism literature. This approach was taken because evidence indicates that ESL students have other key reasons other than education to go abroad, including tourism related reasons (Batchelor 1988), there are indications that Japanese ELS students are motivated by a wide variety of factors not just those relating to the benefits of education (Kobayashi 2007; Watkins 2006; Watkins 2010), and because while the United Nation’s World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) classifies international education experiences as a type of tourism (Weaver 2003) their motivations are rarely identified as pleasure travel motivations (Wiers-Jenssen 2003; Kitsantas 2004; Kobayashi 2007; Watkins 2006; Watkins 2010; Jarvis and Peel 2008; Nyaupane et. al. 2011). For this research a qualitative case study was made of a small sample of twenty-four Japanese adults undertaking short term English study within New Zealand. With this approach face-to-face interviews were conducted; these were then analysed in relation to pleasure travel motivations in the literature. Specific questions addressed by this research were: (a) What motivates adults from Japan to leave their home country and go abroad? (b) What motivates Japanese adults to undertake study English while abroad? (c) How alike and different are the push factor motivations of Japanese adults enrolled in English language study in New Zealand to push factor motivations within pleasure travel Findings indicated that participants were motivated to travel and study English abroad by bundles of education and non-education related motivations. While key motivational differences were found between the two groups in the areas of instrumental motivation, extrinsic motivation, and now-or-never motivation it was evident that participants shared many underlying socio-psychological motivations associated with pleasure travel influenced participants to go abroad such as knowledge and learning; anomie and escape; catharsis; novelty, variety, and change; personal growth, self-discovery, and change; affiliation, relatedness, and social interaction; and deep-seated motivation. These findings serve to support earlier suggestions that ESL students have key reasons other than education to go abroad; including tourism related ones (Batchelor 1988) and helps to reinforce the UNWTO’s classification of international education experiences as a form of tourism (Weaver 2003). This knowledge is valuable as it can be used to better market ESL education experiences to the Japanese market and better tailor programmes and experiences to fulfil the different bundles of needs

January 31 is not Brexit - uncertainty will continue

Britain leaves the EU. That is not in doubt. But the terms of the future relationship remain to be decided. With Labour and Liberal Democrats unable to form any coherent opposition can business emerge as the opposition to a hard, amputational Brexit, asks Denis MacShane