How the Brexit negotiations can end without war being declared, asks Denis MacShane? What’s needed is a compromise, which used to be a British speciality, he argues

MacShane, Denis

English

LSE Research Online

How	the	Brexit	negotiations	can	end	without	warbeing	declaredHow	the	Brexit	negotiations	can	end	without	war	being	declared,	asks	Denis	MacShane?	What’s	needed	is	acompromise,	which	used	to	be	a	British	speciality,	he	argues.Pacta	sunt	servanda	–	treaties	must	be	observed	–	is	an	ancient	rule	of	relations	between	states.		Britain	has	beenbusy	for	centuries	signing	Treaties	governing	its	relations	with	other	states	or	multi-state	entities	as	well	asinternational	organisations	like	the	UN,	the	WTO,	or	the	EU.	Until	Brexit	the	UK’s	relationship	in	most	areas	withother	European	sovereign	nation	states	has	been	fixed	by	various	treaties	such	as	the	Treaties	of	Maastricht,	Nice,Lisbon,	or	the	Single	European	Act	treaty	negotiated	by	Margaret	Thatcher	introducing	the	Single	Market.Last	autumn	Boris	Johnson,	the	new	prime	minister,	ordered	his	chief	Brexit	civil	servant,	David	Frost,	a	former	UKambassador	to	Denmark	and	director	of	the	Scotch	Whisky	Federation,	to	reverse	existing	UK	policy	and	acceptproposals	from	the	EU	formulated	by	Michel	Barnier,	to	write	into	a	new	Treaty,	the	Withdrawal	Agreement,guarantees	that	there	would	be	no	border	checks	in	the	north	of	Ireland	between	the	six	counties	in	the	UK	and	therest	of	the	Republic	of	Ireland.Lost	in	the	justified	applause	at	Johnson’s	repudiation	of	both	May’s	negotiating	position	and	his	dismissal	ofextreme	Ulster	protestant	MPs’	refusal	to	accept	the	only	way	the	Good	Friday	peace	agreement	could	bemaintained	was	by	putting	all	of	the	island	of	Ireland	under	EU	rules	for	trade	was	the	dramatic	change	in	the	statusof	the	six	counties	following	the	new	Withdrawal	Treaty	accepted	by	Johnson.	The	rest	of	Britain	was	not	muchconcerned	and	glad	that	the	Brexit	blockage	associated	with	the	Theresa	May	years	in	Downing	Street	were	overand	gave	Johnson	a	handsome	majority	in	the	December	2019	election.Good	diplomacy	and	a	good	treaty	led	to	a	good	political	outcome	for	the	Tory	Party	and	for	Boris	Johnson.	But	hehad	to	tell	David	Frost	to	reverse	his	position	and	showed	that	political	leadership	was	what	mattered.	The	DUPwere	eliminated	as	a	force	in	Westminster	politics	and	the	big	increase	in	Tory	MPs	gave	Johnson	an	unassailablepolitical	base.Johnson	has	spent	most	of	his	life	as	a	journalist.	He	was	famed	for	late	delivery	of	copy	and	never	getting	down	towrite	his	columns	until	the	deadline	was	nearly	past.	It	is	hard	not	to	see	the	same	modus	operandi	in	hismanagement	of	Britain	since	the	election.	The	COVID-19	crisis	has	been	plagued	by	endless	confusion	and	policiesthat	were	swiftly	reversed	or	altered.	Johnson	still	looks	tired	and	erratic	which	given	the	after-effects	of	the	COVIDillness	on	an	overweight	man,	heading	to	his	60s,	with	a	brand	new	baby	and	girlfriend,	is	not	surprising.	But	just	asJohnson	would	chop	and	change	his	copy	to	the	last	moment	so	too	he	slaloms	through	policy	decisions	alwayslooking	for	tomorrow’s	headline	that	shows	him	commanding	the	ship	of	state	without	any	real	sense	where	itshould	be	heading.The	Labour	Party	is	still	licking	its	wounds	after	the	unhappy	Corbyn	years	which	were	also	marked	by	endlessconfusion	and	mixed	messaging	on	Europe	and	Brexit	reflected	in	TV	and	radio	interviews	by	shadow	cabinetmembers	where	they	regularly	contradicted	one	another.	Sir	Keir	Starmer	has	adopted	a	policy	of	“Say	No	Brexit.See	No	Brexit.	Hear	No	Brexit”.	This	has	the	merit	of	shutting	down	Labour	divisions	and	also	making	clear	Brexit	is100	per	cent	the	responsibility	of	the	prime	minister.LSE Brexit: How the Brexit negotiations can end without war being declared Page 1 of 4		Date originally posted: 2020-09-09Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/09/09/how-the-brexit-negotiations-can-end-without-war-being-declared/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/Waterloo,	Belgium.	Image	bby	alannascanlon	(pixabay.com)	Enemies	and	dangers	aboundIn	2015,	David	Frost,	wrote	that	Brexit	negotiations	should	be	led	by	a	senior	minister	and	done	on	a	bi-partisanbasis.	This	just	demonstrated	the	naivety	of	many	a	mid-rank	FCO	diplomat	who	know	their	trade	well	but	areamateurs	in	politics.Brexit	is	the	most	intensely	partisan	issue	in	internal	Tory	politics	since	the	Irish	question	of	the	19th	and	early	20thcentury.	Johnson	has	very	little	interest	in	the	content	of	any	Brexit	deal	as	long	as	it	keeps	his	party	reasonablyunited	behind	him.	Hence	all	the	headlines	and	briefings	to	the	newspapers	read	by	Tory	MPs	and	party	activists	–usually	the	Daily	Mail	and	Telegraph	with	the	odd	bone	thrown	to	the	Sun	with	its	fast-declining	circulation.Johnson	has	two	major	and	one	minor	political	fears.	He	is	now	realising	that	a	hard	or	crash-out	Brexit	–	usuallyreferred	to	as	a	WTO,	or	Australian	or	Canada	style	Brexit	–	will	play	into	the	hands	of	Nicola	Sturgeon	and	lead	toa	massive	increase	in	the	vote	for	the	SNP	and	a	new	referendum	on	independence	at	the	elections	to	the	ScottishParliament	in	Holyrood,	Edinburgh	next	May.He	also	knows	that	chaos	at	the	border	ports	of	England	like	Dover	in	January	2021	with	huge	queues	of	trucks	onKent	motorways	will	play	in	Labour’s	hand	as	Sir	Keir	Starmer	and	many	business	leaders	and	road	hauliers	willberate	Downing	Street	for	sheer	incompetence.LSE Brexit: How the Brexit negotiations can end without war being declared Page 2 of 4		Date originally posted: 2020-09-09Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/09/09/how-the-brexit-negotiations-can-end-without-war-being-declared/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/He	also	has	to	keep	an	eye	on	ageing	hardliners	in	the	Tory	party	like	Sir	John	Redwood,	David	Davis	or	IainDuncan	Smith.	But	most	Tory	MPs	will	hail	any	deal	with	the	EU	if	Johnson	uses	his	demagogic	style	to	say	it	iswhat	Britain	and	the	Tory	party	want.In	June	2016	just	after	the	referendum,	Johnson	wrote	that	trade	with	the	EU	could	continue	as	normal,	access	tothe	Single	Market	would	continue	and	British	citizens	could	work,	and	settle	in	Europe	as	was	the	case	under	EUmembership.	All	of	this	will	be	exposed	as	nonsense	if	a	hard	Brexit	happens.	Australia	and	Canada	do	not	send10,000	lorries	a	day	into	England	carrying	85	per	cent	of	the	nation’s	fresh	vegetable	and	fruit,	along	with	60	percent	of	the	bacon,	sausages	and	ham	we	eat.Johnson’s	latest	line	about	rejecting	the	treaty	obligations	under	the	Withdrawal	Agreement	produced	a	furiousreaction	as	Britain	was	seen	to	be	threatening	to	dishonour	its	word	as	a	nation	when	the	WA	Treaty	wassigned.	The	EU	Commission	president,	the	mild-mannered	Ursula	Von	Der	Leyen	tweeted:I	trust	the	British	government	to	implement	the	Withdrawal	Agreement,	an	obligation	under	internationallaw	&	prerequisite	for	any	future	partnership.	Protocol	on	Ireland/Northern	Ireland	is	essential	to	protectpeace	and	stability	on	the	island	&	integrity	of	the	single	market.—	Ursula	von	der	Leyen	(@vonderleyen)	September	7,	2020Von	Der	Leyen	is	Angela	Merkel’s	closest	associate	in	German	politics	since	2005	and	it	is	safe	to	assume	that	herattack	on	Johnson	had	the	blessing	of	Berlin.	The	Irish	foreign	minister	and	other	senior	serving	EU	ministers	haveall	said	it	is	inconceivable	that	Britain	would	so	dishonour	its	word.In	Washington,	Nancy	Pelosi,	who	controls	the	House	of	Representatives,	said	there	was	no	question	of	Congressvoting	a	US-UK	free	trade	agreement	if	Johnson	repudiated	the	Withdrawal	Agreement	and	a	hard	border	wasimposed	in	Northern	Ireland	for	the	normal	legal	checks	between	the	EU	and	a	third	country.Is	there	a	way	out?No	10	has	made	a	great	deal	of	fuss	about	the	need	for	the	UK	to	be	allowed	to	increase	state	aid	outside	EUnorms.	Clearly	no	country	can	easily	accept	open	trade	with	a	neighbour	who	massively	subsidises	its	firms	to	tradeat	low	prices	and	dump	goods	or	service	on	the	markets	of	its	neighbours.But	EU	state	aid	is	very	flexible.	At	the	moment	the	UK	is	in	the	lowest	quartile	for	state	financing	of	economicactors.		It	would	increase	state	aid	four-fold	to	£61	billion	about	twice	the	size	of	the	defence	budget	and	still	bewithin	EU	rules.The	EU	rules	do	not	prevent	Member	State	governments	from	focusing	aid	on	their	own	legitimate	policy	objectivesincluding	regional	development	which	could	help	the	so-called	“red	wall”	seats	in	de-industrialised	regions	of	thenorth	and	Midlands.As	it	is	the	EU	has	increased	state	aid	to	€2.9	trillion	to	be	spent	on	288	programmes	in	response	to	the	COVIDpandemic’s	hit	on	the	economy.	It	is	surely	possible	for	Barnier	and	Frost	to	find	words	that	allow	the	UK	far	moreleeway	in	increasing	state	aid	in	response	to	COVID	to	meet	Johnson’s	and	Tory	MPs’	demands	and	he	can	thenproclaim	this	as	a	victory	for	his	tough	line	and	bring	back	a	bit	of	paper	to	declare	he	has	won	the	Battle	of	Brexitwith	Europe.The	same	is	true	for	fishing.	A	crude	extension	of	UK	territorial	waters	to	200	nautical	miles	around	the	UK	coastwon’t	work.	Most	British	fishing	boats	are	owned	by	foreign	firms	and	30	per	cent	of	on-board	fishing	workers	areEU	citizens.	In	any	event	60	per	cent	of	all	the	UK	catch	is	sold	to	Europe	so	there	is	little	point	in	having	a	fishingwar	with	the	EU	if	UK	based	trawlers	cannot	sell	their	catch.For	centuries	British,	French,	Belgian,	Dutch,	Danish,	German	and	Spanish	fishing	communities	have	co-existedeven	with	some	friction	at	the	edges.	The	need	to	preserve	fish	stocks	which	is	what	the	EU	commons	fisheriespolicy	now	mainly	does	is	an	important	to	British	fishing	communities	and	12,000	men	and	women	who	work	infishing	as	any	other	country.	Again,	it	should	be	possible	to	set	up	a	new	regime	based	on	quotas	and	regularreviews	that	can	satisfy	most	fishing	communities.	If	Barnier	and	Frost	can	agree	this,	Johnson	can	bring	this	homeas	a	victory.LSE Brexit: How the Brexit negotiations can end without war being declared Page 3 of 4		Date originally posted: 2020-09-09Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/09/09/how-the-brexit-negotiations-can-end-without-war-being-declared/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/For	the	rest	and	there	is	a	lot	of	“rest”	in	terms	of	financial	services,	professional	services,	education	and	creativeindustries	and	trade	in	goods,	notably	cars	made	in	the	UK,		as	well	as	the	rights	of	up	to	2	million	Brits	who	live,work	or	have	a	base	on	the	continent	this	is	what	General	de	Gaulle	l’intendance	–	logistics	which	can	be	discussedand	ironed	out	in	negotiations	that	go	into	the	2020s.Some	in	Brussels,	and	many	in	the	Tory	Party,	want	a	big	bang	Brexit	but	that	is	not	in	Johnson’s	political	interests.It	will	be	awkward	for	the	EU	and	new	agreements	may	be	needed	to	open	the	door	to	continuing	discussions	afterJanuary	2021.	It	is	not	in	Europe’s	interests	to	have	a	major	crisis	on	its	borders	with	Britain	nor	can		Johnson	wantendless	TV	reports	of	“Brovid”	economic	dislocations	as	he	face	the	problem	of	Scottish	secession,	and	a	LabourParty	back	in	business.It	is	the	Brexit	Johnson	promised	in	2016	–	one	that	takes	the	UK	out	of	the	Treaty	–	but	does	not	worsen	theeconomic	future	of	the	UK	or	reduce	the	rights	of	British	and	EU	citizens	to	live	harmoniously.	It	is	called	acompromise	which	used	to	be	a	British,	especially	a	Tory	British,	speciality.Might	it	happen?	If	it	does	it	will	be	at	the	very	last	possible	moment	like	everything	Johnson	does.This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	author,	not	the	position	of	LSE	Brexit,	or	the	London	School	of	Economics.LSE Brexit: How the Brexit negotiations can end without war being declared Page 4 of 4		Date originally posted: 2020-09-09Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/09/09/how-the-brexit-negotiations-can-end-without-war-being-declared/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/

How the Brexit negotiations can end without war being declared

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How the Brexit negotiations can end without war being declared

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