Insect infestation sources in stored maize grain; what is more important resident versus incoming infestation?

Most studies targeted pest control inside stores; incognisant of the population dynamics in the store vicinity; leading to product re-infestation. Distinction between storage insect pest source and sink grain patches is important for effective pest management strategies. We examined the role of resident versus incoming insect infestation in phosphine-fumigated closed or open and unfumigated closed or open maize farm stores. Grain quality measurements were recorded over 32 weeks for two storage seasons. Whether open or closed, fumigated grain had significantly lower (p < 0.001) grain damage and lower grain weight loss (p < 0.05) than unfumigated grain. Fumigated open stores had significantly higher (p= 0.004) grain damage and weight loss than closed ones. Grain damage was higher in unfumigated-closed than fumigated-open, evidence that resident infestation inflicted higher food loss than incoming infestation. Prostephanus truncatus, Cryptolestes ferrugineus and Tribolium castaneum had significantly higher populations (p < 0.001, p = 0.018 and p = 0.001; respectively) at bottom levels of unfumigated and fumigated grain (T. castaneum). Sitotroga cerealella and Sitophilus zeamais were significantly higher (p < 0.001) at the top of closed than open unfumigated compartments. Grain suffers less infestation and quality loss when it is a sink patch than when it is a source patch. Population build-up and ‘settling’ to inflict significant food loss takes longer for incoming compared to resident infestation. These results have ecological implications on postharvest IPM.Most studies targeted pest control inside stores; incognisant of the population dynamics in the store vicinity; leading to product re-infestation. Distinction between storage insect pest source and sink grain patches is important for effective pest management strategies. We examined the role of resident versus incoming insect infestation in phosphine-fumigated closed or open and unfumigated closed or open maize farm stores. Grain quality measurements were recorded over 32 weeks for two storage seasons. Whether open or closed, fumigated grain had significantly lower (p < 0.001) grain damage and lower grain weight loss (p < 0.05) than unfumigated grain. Fumigated open stores had significantly higher (p= 0.004) grain damage and weight loss than closed ones. Grain damage was higher in unfumigated-closed than fumigated-open, evidence that resident infestation inflicted higher food loss than incoming infestation. Prostephanus truncatus, Cryptolestes ferrugineus and Tribolium castaneum had significantly higher populations (p < 0.001, p = 0.018 and p = 0.001; respectively) at bottom levels of unfumigated and fumigated grain (T. castaneum). Sitotroga cerealella and Sitophilus zeamais were significantly higher (p < 0.001) at the top of closed than open unfumigated compartments. Grain suffers less infestation and quality loss when it is a sink patch than when it is a source patch. Population build-up and ‘settling’ to inflict significant food loss takes longer for incoming compared to resident infestation. These results have ecological implications on postharvest IPM

Empirical Bayes Approach to Controlling Familywise Error: An Application to HIV Resistance Data

Statistical challenges arise in identifying meaningful patterns and structures from high dimensional genomic data sets. Relating HIV genotype (sequence of amino acids) to phenotypic resistance presents a typical problem. When the HIV virus is under antiretroviral drug pressure, unfavorable mutations of the target genes often lead to greatly increased resistance of the virus to drugs, including drugs the virus has not been exposed to. Identification of mutation combinations and their correlation to drug resistance is critical in guiding efficient prescription of HIV drugs. The identification of a subset of codons associated with drug resistance from a set of several hundreds of codons presents a multiple testing problem. Statistical issues arising from genomic data multiple testing procedures include the choice of the null test-statistic distribution used to define cut-offs. Controlling familywise error rate implies controlling the number of false positives among true nulls. Given the large number of hypotheses to be tested, the number of true nulls is unknown. We apply two multiple testing procedures (MTPs) controlling familywise error rate: an adhoc augmented-Bonferroni method and a Empirical Bayes procedure originally proposed in van der Laan, Birkner and Hubbard(2005). Using simulations, we demonstrate that the proposed MTPs are less conservative than the traditional methods such as Bonferroni and Holm\u27s procedures. We apply the methods to HIV resistance data where we wish to identify mutations in the protease gene associated with Amprenavir resistance

Sitotroga cerealella (Olivier) resilience to extreme temperature and desiccation may explain its increasing pest status in changing climates: Poster

The mechanisms underlying Sitotroga cerealella survival under variable and increasing mean thermal and desiccation environments typical under global change is currently unknown. To understand how S. cerealella survives extreme abiotic stressors typical of stored-grain environments, we measured S. cerealella tolerance temperature and desiccation. The results showed that to survive desiccating grain storage environments, S. cerealella relied more on high body water content (BWC) (70.2 ± 3.72%) compared to lipid reserves (9.8± 0.81%). In desiccating environment, S. cerealella showed a reduced water loss rate (0.056mg/h) (equivalent of 1.81% of body water/hour) which would require 19.31 h to reduce the insect body water to its critical minimum (35.23% body water content at death), which is 50.20% of normal initial body water. Similarly S. cerealella exhibited high basal heat tolerance with critical thermal maximum of 46.09 ± 1.042°C and a heat knockdown time of 7.97 ± 1.64 minutes. Basal cold tolerance was relatively compromised (critical thermal minima of 4.52 ± 1.06°C and chill coma recovery time of 5.80 ±1.17 minutes), following 1h at 0°C. We found no significant correlation (P > 0.001) between BWC and the measured thermal tolerance traits. Low water loss rates reported here may be an evolutionary resistance mechanism for desiccation tolerance. Observed abiotic stress tolerance may explain the ubiquitous distribution of S. cerealella in Africa which is likely to enhance its survival and increase its pest status under global change.The mechanisms underlying Sitotroga cerealella survival under variable and increasing mean thermal and desiccation environments typical under global change is currently unknown. To understand how S. cerealella survives extreme abiotic stressors typical of stored-grain environments, we measured S. cerealella tolerance temperature and desiccation. The results showed that to survive desiccating grain storage environments, S. cerealella relied more on high body water content (BWC) (70.2 ± 3.72%) compared to lipid reserves (9.8± 0.81%). In desiccating environment, S. cerealella showed a reduced water loss rate (0.056mg/h) (equivalent of 1.81% of body water/hour) which would require 19.31 h to reduce the insect body water to its critical minimum (35.23% body water content at death), which is 50.20% of normal initial body water. Similarly S. cerealella exhibited high basal heat tolerance with critical thermal maximum of 46.09 ± 1.042°C and a heat knockdown time of 7.97 ± 1.64 minutes. Basal cold tolerance was relatively compromised (critical thermal minima of 4.52 ± 1.06°C and chill coma recovery time of 5.80 ±1.17 minutes), following 1h at 0°C. We found no significant correlation (P > 0.001) between BWC and the measured thermal tolerance traits. Low water loss rates reported here may be an evolutionary resistance mechanism for desiccation tolerance. Observed abiotic stress tolerance may explain the ubiquitous distribution of S. cerealella in Africa which is likely to enhance its survival and increase its pest status under global change

Efficacy Studies of Malaria Treatments in Africa: Efficient Estimation with Missing Indicators of Failure

Efficacy studies of malaria treatments can be plagued by indeterminate outcomes for some patients. The study motivating this paper defines the outcome of interest (treatment failure) as recrudescence and for some subjects, it is unclear whether a recurrence of malaria is due to that or new infection. This results in a specific kind of missing data. The effect of missing data in causal inference problems is widely recognized. Methods that adjust for possible bias from missing data include a variety of imputation procedures (extreme case analysis, hot-deck, single and multiple imputation), inverse weighting methods, and likelihood based methods (data augmentation, EM procedures and their extensions). In this article, we focus on multiple imputation, two inverse weighting procedures (the inverse probability of censoring weighted (IPCW) and the doubly robust (DR) estimators), and a likelihood based methodology (G-computation), comparing the methods\u27 applicability to the efficient estimation of malaria treatments effects. We present results from a simulation study as well as results from a data analysis of malaria efficacy studies from Uganda

Workshop report: building biostatistics capacity in Sub-saharan Africa-taking action

To address the need for capacity development in biostatistics in the Sub-Saharan African region and to move recommendations from previous workshops into action, we brought together biostatisticians from the region to provide an opportunity to brainstorm biostatistics capacity development in Africa, how to enhance what is being done and establish collaborative links to work together. In order to move key recommendations forward working groups were established to focus on the structure and content of a MSc Biostatistics and on the development of a concept paper for an Africa Centre for Biostatistics Excellence.Pan African Medical Journal 2015; 2

Condom use and the risk of HIV infection: who is being protected?

A study/survey done on condom use among Zimbabwean men in Zimbabwe.Descriptive baseline data at enrolment into a cohort of male factory workers who were tested for HIV serology and monitored for sero-con version over time, were analysed for condom use. At recruitment, the 1 146 men were asked about their sexual behaviour, history of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), condom use and circumstances under which condoms were used. HIV seroprevalence in the cohort was 18,2 pc. Self reported use of condoms was low, with only 5 pc of the men reporting using them all the time. Forty four pc reported that they had never used a condom, 11,5 pc tried a condom only once, and 30,5 pc used condoms less than half the time. HIV positive men were more likely (Odds Ratio [OR]= 2,2 95 pc Cl: 1,3 — 3,3) to use condoms than those who tested negative. Men using a condom more than once were younger and had more education (p values < 0,0005). Univariate analysis showed that men with self reported risk factors for HIV infection were more likely to use condoms. Significantly more condom users reported paying for sex, multiple sex partners or (for married men) a girlfriend (p < 0,005). Condom users also more often had a history of genital ulcers, urethral discharge or other STDs. Few married men (24 pc) reported using a condom with their wives. Condom use was more commonly reported with commercial sex workers (44 pc) or other extramarital partners (36 pc). Some risk factors for HIV infection were also present amongst men who reported that they did not use condoms. Independent determinants of condom use identified by stepwise logistic regression analysis included young age, having a girlfriend (OR = 2,2; 95 pc Cl: 1,47 — 3,3), number of sex partners in the last year (OR = 1,27; 95 pc Cl: 1,06 —1,51 per partner), and paying for sex in the preceding year (OR = 1,74; 95 pc Cl: 1,06 — 2,83). The results show that men use condoms with partners considered risky, such as prostitutes or girlfriends but use condoms less often with their wives. The results underscore theneedfor health education for behavioural change that promotes universal, consistent use of condoms or monogamous partnership

Analytical methods used in estimating the prevalence of HIV/AIDS from demographic and cross-sectional surveys with missing data: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Sero- prevalence studies often have a problem of missing data. Few studies report the proportion of missing data and even fewer describe the methods used to adjust the results for missing data. The objective of this review was to determine the analytical methods used for analysis in HIV surveys with missing data. METHODS: We searched for population, demographic and cross-sectional surveys of HIV published from January 2000 to April 2018 in Pub Med/Medline, Web of Science core collection, Latin American and Caribbean Sciences Literature, Africa-Wide Information and Scopus, and by reviewing references of included articles. All potential abstracts were imported into Covidence and abstracts screened by two independent reviewers using pre-specified criteria. Disagreements were resolved through discussion. A piloted data extraction tool was used to extract data and assess the risk of bias of the eligible studies. Data were analysed through a quantitative approach; variables were presented and summarised using figures and tables. RESULTS: A total of 3426 citations where identified, 194 duplicates removed, 3232 screened and 69 full articles were obtained. Twenty-four studies were included. The response rate for an HIV test of the included studies ranged from 32 to 96% with the major reason for the missing data being refusal to consent for an HIV test. Complete case analysis was the primary method of analysis used, multiple imputations 11(46%) was the most advanced method used, followed by the Heckman's selection model 9(38%). Single Imputation and Instrumental variables method were used in only two studies each, with 13(54%) other different methods used in several studies. Forty-two percent of the studies applied more than two methods in the analysis, with a maximum of 4 methods per study. Only 6(25%) studies conducted a sensitivity analysis, while 11(46%) studies had a significant change of estimates after adjusting for missing data. CONCLUSION: Missing data in survey studies is still a problem in disease estimation. Our review outlined a number of methods that can be used to adjust for missing data on HIV studies; however, more information and awareness are needed to allow informed choices on which method to be applied for the estimates to be more reliable and representative

HIV seroconversion among factory workers in Harare: who is getting newly infected?

A clinical report on the impact of HIV/AIDS among factory workers in Zimbabwe's industrial areas of Harare.It was estimated that by the of 1996 more than 8.4 million AIDS cases had occurred worldwide.1 Because of the long and variable duration between infection with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and the ultimate development of AIDS, a more useful indication of current trends in the epidemic is the number of new infections with HIV. Twenty eight million people from 190 countries across the world were HIV positive by mid 1996.Composed of distinct epidemics, each with its own features, degree and extent, the pandemic has had a disproportionately severe impact on the developing world. Despite wide information on HIV prevention, 3.1 million new infections occurred during 1996. Up to 93% of the HIV infections recorded in 1996 were from developing countries with 68% from sub-Saharan Africa.2 Developing countries, who have weaker economic structures, continue to bear the greatest burden of HIV infections. HIV infection appears be spreading much faster in Southern Africa than anywhere else

Implementation of Point-of-Care Diagnostics Leads to Variable Uptake of Syphilis, Anemia and CD4+ T-Cell Count Testing in Rural Maternal and Child Health Clinics.

INTRODUCTION: Anemia, syphilis and HIV are high burden diseases among pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa. A quasi-experimental study was conducted in four health facilities in Southern Mozambique to evaluate the effect of point-of-care technologies for hemoglobin quantification, syphilis testing and CD4+ T-cell enumeration performed within maternal and child health services on testing and treatment coverage, and assessing acceptability by health workers. METHODS: Demographic and testing data on women attending first antenatal care services were extracted from existing records, before (2011; n = 865) and after (2012; n = 808) introduction of point-of-care testing. Study outcomes per health facility were compared using z-tests (categorical variables) and Wilcoxon rank-sum test (continuous variables), while inverse variance weights were used to adjust for possible cluster effects in the pooled analysis. A structured acceptability-assessment interview was conducted with health workers before (n = 22) and after (n = 19). RESULTS: After implementation of point-of-care testing, there was no significant change in uptake of overall hemoglobin screening (67.9% to 83.0%; p = 0.229), syphilis screening (80.8% to 87.0%; p = 0.282) and CD4+ T-cell testing (84.9% to 83.5%; p = 0.930). Initiation of antiretroviral therapy for treatment eligible women was similar in the weighted analysis before and after, with variability among the sites. Time from HIV diagnosis to treatment initiation decreased (median of 44 days to 17 days; p CONCLUSIONS: Point-of-care CD4+ T-cell enumeration resulted in a decreased time to initiation of antiretroviral therapy among treatment eligible women, without significant increase in testing coverage. Overall hemoglobin and syphilis screening increased. Despite the perception that point-of-care technologies increase access to health services, the variability in results indicate the potential for detrimental effects in some settings. Local context needs to be considered and services restructured to accommodate innovative technologies in order to improve service delivery to expectant mothers

Short-Term Exposure to Tobacco Toxins Alters Expression of Multiple Proliferation Gene Markers in Primary Human Bronchial Epithelial Cell Cultures

The biological effects of only a finite number of tobacco toxins have been studied. Here, we describe exposure of cultures of human bronchial epithelial cells to low concentrations of tobacco carcinogens: nickel sulphate, benzo(b)fluoranthene, N-nitrosodiethylamine, and 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone (NNK). After a 24-hour exposure, EGFR was expressed in cell membrane and cytoplasm, BCL-2 was expressed only in the irregular nuclei of large atypical cells, MKI67 was expressed in nuclei with no staining in larger cells, cytoplasmic BIRC5 with stronger nuclear staining was seen in large atypical cells, and nuclear TP53 was strongly expressed in all cells. After only a 24-hour exposure, cells exhibited atypical nuclear and cytoplasmic features. After a 48-hour exposure, EGFR staining was localized to the nucleus, BCL-2 was slightly decreased in intensity, BIRC5 was localized to the cytoplasm, and TP53 staining was increased in small and large cells. BCL2L1 was expressed in both the cytoplasm and nuclei of cells at 24- and 48-hour exposures. We illustrate that short-termexposure of a bronchial epithelial cell line to smoking-equivalent concentrations of tobacco carcinogens alters the expression of key proliferation regulatory genes, EGFR, BCL-2, BCL2L1, BIRC5, TP53, and MKI67, similar to that reported in biopsy specimens of pulmonary epithelium described to be preneoplastic lesions