Numerical simulation of lava flows based on depth-averaged equations

Risks and damages associated with lava flows propagation (for instance the most recent Etna eruptions) require a quantitative description of this phenomenon and a reliable forecasting of lava flow paths. Due to the high complexity of these processes, numerical solution of the complete conservation equations for real lava flows is often practically impossible. To overcome the computational difficulties, simplified models are usually adopted, including 1-D models and cellular automata. In this work we propose a simplified 2D model based on the conservation equations for lava thickness and depth-averaged velocities and temperature which result in first order partial differential equations. The proposed approach represents a good compromise between the full 3-D description and the need to decrease the computational time. The method was satisfactorily applied to reproduce some analytical solutions and to simulate a real lava flow event occurred during the 1991-93 Etna eruption.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Nonlinear phenomena in fluids with temperature-dependent viscosity: an hysteresis model for magma flow in conduits

Magma viscosity is strongly temperature-dependent. When hot magma flows in a conduit, heat is lost through the walls and the temperature decreases along the flow causing a viscosity increase. For particular values of the controlling parameters the steady-flow regime in a conduit shows two stable solutions belonging either to the slow or to the fast branch. As a consequence, this system may show an hysteresis effect, and the transition between the two branches can occur quickly when certain critical points are reached. In this paper we describe a model to study the relation between the pressure at the inlet and the volumetric magma flow rate in a conduit. We apply this model to explain an hysteric jump observed during the dome growth at Soufri\`ere Hills volcano (Montserrat), and described by Melnik and Sparks [1999] using a different model.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, corrected version of "Nonlinear phenomena in fluids with temperature-dependent viscosity: an hysteresis model for magma flow in conduits" GRL Vol 29, No 10,200

Motivations for muon radiography of active volcanoes

Muon radiography represents an innovative tool for investigating the interior of active volcanoes. This method integrates the conventional geophysical techniques and provides an independent way to estimate the density of the volcano structure and reveal the presence of magma conduits. The experience from the pioneer experiments performed at Mt. Asama, Mt. West Iwate, and Showa-Shinzan (Japan) are very encouraging. Muon radiography could be applied, in principle, at any stratovolcano. Here we focus our attention on Vesuvius and Stromboli (Italy)

Effects of eruption source parameter variation and meteorological dataset on tephra fallout hazard assessment: example from Vesuvius (Italy)

In this study, using the tephra dispersal model HAZMAP, we investigate the effect of using different meteorological datasets and eruption source parameters on tephra fallout hazard assessment for a sub-Plinian eruption of Vesuvius, which is considered as a reference case for hazard assessment analysis. We analyze the effect of using different meteorological data, from: i) radio-sounding carried out at the meteorological station of Brindisi (Italy) between 1962 and 1976 and between 1996 and 2012, and at Pratica di Mare (Rome, Italy) between 1995 and 2013; ii) meteorological models of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Furthermore, we consider the effects of perturbing reference eruptive source parameters. In particular, we vary the total mass, the total grain-size distribution, the column height, and the effective atmospheric diffusion coefficient to evaluate how these parameters affect the hazard probability maps. Moreover, the effect of the seasonal variation of the wind field and the effect of the rain on the deposit loading are considered. Results show that the parameter that mostly affects hazard maps is, as expected, the total erupted mass; furthermore, keeping constant the erupted mass, the most important control on hazard is due to the particle terminal settling velocity distribution which is a function of the total grain-size distribution, particle density and shape. Within the considered range variations, the hazard depends less on the use of different meteorological datasets, column height and effective diffusion coefficient

Uncertainties in volcanic plume modeling: A parametric study using FPLUME

We carry out a parametric study in order to identify and quantify the effects of uncertainties on pivotal parameters controlling the dynamics of volcanic plumes. The study builds upon numerical simulations using FPLUME, an integral steady-state model based on the Buoyant Plume Theory generalized in order to account for volcanic processes (particle fallout and re-entrainment, water phase changes, effects of wind, etc). As reference cases for strong and weak plumes, we consider the cases defined during the IAVCEI Commission on tephra hazard modeling inter-comparison study (Costa et al., 2016). The parametric study quantifies the effect of typical uncertainties on total mass eruption rate, column height, mixture exit velocity, temperature and water content, and particle size. Moreover, a sensitivity study investigates the role of wind entrainment and intensity, atmospheric humidity, water phase changes, and particle fallout and re-entrainment. Results show that the leading-order parameters that control plume height are the mass eruption rate and the air entrainment coefficient, especially for weak plumes.This work was partially supported by the MED-SUV Project funded by the European Union (FP7 Grant Agreement n.308665). AC acknowledges a grant for visiting researchers of Earthquake Research Institute, Japan. The authors warmly thank the Guest Editors of JVGR Yujiro J. Suzuki (Univ. of Tokyo, Japan) for handling the paper and for the useful suggestions. Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi and Wim Degruyter are thanked for their constructive comments that have improved the manuscript.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Insight Into Campi Flegrei Caldera Unrest Through Seismic Tremor Measurements at Pisciarelli Fumarolic Field

Within a general volcanic unrest in the densely urbanized area of Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) an increase in the activity of Pisciarelli hydrothermal area is occurring. The seismic amplitude of Pisciarelli fumarolic tremor is a proxy for the fluid emission rate of the entire Solfatara‐Pisciarelli hydrothermal system. The long‐term analysis indicates a significant increase, by a factor of ~3 of the fumarolic tremor amplitude since May 2017. This increment matches with the trend of geochemical and seismic parameters observed in Campi Flegrei, therefore highlighting that Pisciarelli is a key site to monitor the volcanic unrest underway in this high‐risk caldera. The analysis of data from three closely spaced seismic stations provided new clues about the source mechanism of the tremor. Analyzing the fumarolic tremor amplitude we could also identify an episode of enlargement of the emission area close to the main fumarole of Pisciarelli. We propose a monitoring system based on the fumarolic tremor analysis, which provides real‐time information on the Pisciarelli hydrothermal activity and therefore on the current unrest in Campi Flegrei caldera.Published5544-55554V. Processi pre-eruttiviJCR Journa

VIGIL: a Python tool for automatized probabilistic VolcanIc Gas dIspersion modeLling

Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment is a standard methodology based on running a deterministic hazard quantification tool multiple times to explore the full range of uncertainty in the input parameters and boundary conditions, in order to probabilistically quantify the variability of outputs accounting for such uncertainties. Nowadays, different volcanic hazards are quantified by means of this approach. Among these, volcanic gas emission is particularly relevant given the threat posed to human health if concentrations and exposure times exceed certain thresholds. There are different types of gas emissions but two main scenarios can be recognized: hot buoyant gas emissions from fumaroles and the ground and dense gas emissions feeding density currents that can occur, e.g., in limnic eruptions. Simulation tools are available to model the evolution of critical gas concentrations over an area of interest. Moreover, in order to perform probabilistic hazard assessments of volcanic gases, simulations should account for the natural variability associated to aspects such as seasonal and daily wind conditions, localized or diffuse source locations, and gas fluxes. Here we present VIGIL (automatized probabilistic VolcanIc Gas dIspersion modeLling), a new Python tool designed for managing the entire simulation workflow involved in single and probabilistic applications of gas dispersion modelling. VIGIL is able to manage the whole process from meteorological data processing, needed to run gas dispersion in both the dilute and dense gas flow scenarios, to the post processing of models’ outputs. Two application examples are presented to show some of the modelling capabilities offered by VIGIL

Four Years of Continuous Seafloor Displacement Measurements in the Campi Flegrei Caldera

We present 4 years of continuous seafloor deformation measurements carried out in the Campi Flegrei caldera (Southern Italy), one of the most hazardous and populated volcanic areas in the world. The seafloor sector of the caldera has been monitored since early 2016 by the MEDUSA marine research infrastructure, consisting of four instrumented buoys installed where sea depth is less than 100 m. Each MEDUSA buoy is equipped with a cabled, seafloor module with geophysical and oceanographic sensors and a subaerial GPS station providing seafloor deformation and other environmental measures. Since April 2016, the GPS vertical displacements at the four buoys show a continuous uplift of the seafloor with cumulative measured uplift ranging between 8 and 20 cm. Despite the data being affected by environmental noise associated with sea and meteorological conditions, the horizontal GPS displacements on the buoys show a trend coherent with a radial deformation pattern. We use jointly the GPS horizontal and vertical velocities of seafloor and on-land deformations for modeling the volcanic source, finding that a spherical source fits best the GPS data. The geodetic data produced by MEDUSA has now been integrated with the data flow of other monitoring networks deployed on land at Campi Flegrei

The MURAVES muon telescope: technology and expected performances

The MURAVES project aims to study the inner structure of the upper part of the Mt. Vesuvius volcano by muon radiography (muography) technique. Very high energy muons, produced by cosmic rays in the at- mosphere, can penetrate large thickness of rocks. By measuring the at- tenuation of the muons flux trough the volcano cone is possible to obtain a 2D image of the density structure. Internal discontinuities, with a spa- tial resolution of about 10 m, can be, in principle, resolved. An absolute average density measurement can be provided too. The project, funded by the Italian Ministry of University, Research and Education (MIUR), is led by INGV and INFN. In this article the mechanical structure of the de- tectors and background suppression techniques are reported