Open Access Solutions for Biodiversity Journals: Don’t Replace One Problem with Another

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Developing a predictive modelling capacity for a climate change-vulnerable blanket bog habitat: Assessing 1961-1990 baseline relationships

Aim: Understanding the spatial distribution of high priority habitats and developing predictive models using climate and environmental variables to replicate these distributions are desirable conservation goals. The aim of this study was to model and elucidate the contributions of climate and topography to the distribution of a priority blanket bog habitat in Ireland, and to examine how this might inform the development of a climate change predictive capacity for peat-lands in Ireland. Methods: Ten climatic and two topographic variables were recorded for grid cells with a spatial resolution of 1010 km, covering 87% of the mainland land surface of Ireland. Presence-absence data were matched to these variables and generalised linear models (GLMs) fitted to identify the main climatic and terrain predictor variables for occurrence of the habitat. Candidate predictor variables were screened for collinearity, and the accuracy of the final fitted GLM was evaluated using fourfold cross-validation based on the area under the curve (AUC) derived from a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot. The GLM predicted habitat occurrence probability maps were mapped against the actual distributions using GIS techniques. Results: Despite the apparent parsimony of the initial GLM using only climatic variables, further testing indicated collinearity among temperature and precipitation variables for example. Subsequent elimination of the collinear variables and inclusion of elevation data produced an excellent performance based on the AUC scores of the final GLM. Mean annual temperature and total mean annual precipitation in combination with elevation range were the most powerful explanatory variable group among those explored for the presence of blanket bog habitat. Main conclusions: The results confirm that this habitat distribution in general can be modelled well using the non-collinear climatic and terrain variables tested at the grid resolution used. Mapping the GLM-predicted distribution to the observed distribution produced useful results in replicating the projected occurrence of the habitat distribution over an extensive area. The methods developed will usefully inform future climate change predictive modelling for Irelan

Signalling plasticity and energy saving in a tropical bushcricket

Males of the tropical bushcricket Mecopoda elongata synchronize their acoustic advertisement signals (chirps) in interactions with other males. However, synchrony is not perfect and distinct leader and follower roles are often maintained. In entrainment experiments in which conspecific signals were presented at various rates, chirps displayed as follower showed notable signal plasticity. Follower chirps were shortened by reducing the number and duration of syllables, especially those of low and medium amplitude. The degree of shortening depended on the time delay between leader and follower signals and the sound level of the entraining stimulus. The same signal plasticity was evident in male duets, with the effect that the last syllables of highest amplitude overlapped more strongly. Respiratory measurements showed that solo singing males producing higher chirp rates suffered from higher metabolic costs compared to males singing at lower rates. In contrast, respiratory rate was rather constant during a synchronous entrainment to a conspecific signal repeated at various rates. This allowed males to maintain a steady duty cycle, associated with a constant metabolic rate. Results are discussed with respect to the preference for leader signals in females and the possible benefits males may gain by overlapping their follower signals in a chorus

An experimental examination of colonization as a generator of biotic nestedness

Species assemblages of systems of islands and other fragmented habitats frequently show a &quot;nested-subset&quot; structure in which the biotas of sites with low species richness are non-random subsets of the biotas of richer sites. Much literature suggests that extinction is more likely to produce strongly nested patterns than colonization, although very few experiments have been conducted on the generation of nested-subset patterns. Here, we describe an experiment on nestedness of benthic invertebrates occupying rocks in the littoral zone of a lake in western Victoria, Australia. Data collected from previous work indicated that the invertebrate biotas of rocks were nested. We used initially defaunated, different-sized habitat patches (half house-bricks, full house-bricks, double house-bricks) and followed the time-course of occupation to assess whether nested-subset patterns would emerge, and whether extinction or colonization best accounted for the patterns. We predicted that nestedness would increase through time up to the end of the experiment. This was found to be the case with colonization dominating the establishment of a strongly nested system; extinction appeared to be of relatively little importance over the duration of the experiment. These results suggest that at least in some circumstances, differential colonization may be influential in producing nested-subset patterns but experiments conducted over longer times may be needed to more completely understand the respective roles of extinction and colonization in generating nested-subset patterns in this system.<br /