An assessment of long-term bluff recession rates in the Puget Sound and Salish Sea: implications for the prioritization and design of restoration projects

This oral presentation focuses on extensive recent work documenting long-term coastal bluff recession rates along the shores of the Puget Sound region of the Salish Sea. Coastal bluffs are the most prevalent coastal landform type in this region, accounting for over 1,000 miles (42.6% by length) of the region’s shore (CGS 2017). Coastal bluff recession supplies the overwhelming majority of sediment to Puget Sound beaches, which comprise valued nearshore habitats for salmon, shellfish, and other fish and wildlife (Finlayson 2006; Johannessen and MacLennan 2007; Keuler 1988). Little research has documented the range of bluff recession rates in the region (less than 25 published sites; Shipman 2004, 1995) or how those rates are influenced by changes in bluff form, geology, stratigraphy, or wave exposure. Understanding the range and dominant drivers of long-term (23–101 years for this project) coastal bluff recession rates is critical in informing coastal management and the prioritization and design of restoration and conservation projects. These data may be also used to identify future risk. CGS compiled existing historical change rates into a database, which was then augmented with additional field (direct measurement) and remote (using aerial photography) measurements, totaling 185 sites across the region. Variables describing various bluff characteristics were compiled for all measurement locations and further explored. Variables included: bluff height, surface geology, toe geology, maximum fetch, shore orientation, geomorphic shoretype, beach substrate, tidal range, latitude, permeable over impermeable stratigraphy, location within the drift cell (percent down‐drift of the littoral drift cell origin), and vertical land movement. This presentation will showcase the database of coastal bluff recession rates throughout the U.S. Salish Sea, including the project methods, analysis, and results. Future work includes refining existing datasets and adding new bluff sites for a more spatially distributed and representative picture of long-term shoreline change in the region

Feeder Bluffs on Puget Sound: Tools for Improved Management

Much of Puget Sound’s shoreline consists of mixed sand and gravel beaches, dominated by longshore sediment transport and organized into hundreds of discrete littoral cells. Sediment supply within these cells is often provided by erosion of the steep coastal bluffs, which are composed of abundant, coarse-grained Pleistocene sediment. Bluffs that provide beach sediment are referred to as feeder bluffs and are important to the long-term maintenance of Puget Sound beaches. At the same time, development of Puget Sound’s shoreline has led to widespread construction of seawalls and revetments to control bluff erosion, with the unintended consequence of reducing natural sources of beach sediment. Coastal managers are concerned that this will adversely impact beach conditions. Impair nearshore ecological functions, and reduce resilience to rising sea level. Until recently, regional mapping of feeder bluffs existed. In 2012-2013, we combined existing information with new data and completed a sound-wide coverage of eroding bluffs, along with related beach and coastal landforms. Mapping was conducted using detailed field observations, supplemented with geologic information and aerial photographs. Bluffs were categorized based on their potential ability to deliver beach sediment. We found that of Puget Sound’s 4000 km of shoreline, about 2200 km are beaches. Of these about 600 km are feeder bluffs and about 50 km were mapped as exceptional. About 35% of the region’s beaches were mapped as modified or armored. The maps of feeder bluffs will be provided on Ecology’s online Coastal Atlas, allowing access and integration with other nearshore data. In addition, web-based material provides background information on geology and beaches and guidance on how to interpret and apply his information. This will assist planners and resource managers in improving shoreline management, assessing Puget Sound nearshore health, and identifying coastal restoration priorities

The Cumulative Impacts of Shoreline Armoring on Forage Fish Spawning Habitat in San Juan County, Washington

Protection programs are not holding the line against the incremental impacts of shoreline development. Habitat of the beach-spawning surf smelt (Hypomesus pretiosus), a forage fish critical to marine food webs, is vulnerable to the impacts of armoring and sea level rise (Simenstad et al 1979, Thom et al 1994, Krueger et al 2009). Scientists in San Juan County, Washington recently completed research on the tidal distribution of surf smelt eggs; the cumulative impacts of armoring on forage fish spawning habitat; and sea level rise vulnerability. To determine the tidal distribution of surf smelt eggs, samples were collected at 26 transects across the vertical beach profile of active spawn events in five regions of the County. Results show that 35% of incubating surf smelt eggs are located above Mean Higher High Water. ArcGIS was used to evaluate the cumulative impacts of armoring on forage fish spawning habitat, including direct burial, indirect impacts such as disruptions to sediment processes and shoreline development patterns. Findings show that shoreline armoring buries just over 10 acres of known surf smelt spawning habitat in the County. Armored feeder bluffs and armor located below mean sea level occur in drift cells with known surf smelt spawning habitat, disrupting sediment supply and transport. A strong relationship between residential home setback distances and the likelihood of armoring was also documented; 74% of armored sites have a house located closer than 100 feet from the marine shoreline. Sea level rise vulnerability models were applied across moderate and high projection scenarios and two planning horizons (2050 and 2100). Results indicate that forage fish spawning beaches will likely be threatened by sea level rise in the short term, especially at the 16% of sites where existing armor will constrain the landward translation of upper beach habitat (Griggs et al 1994, Krueger et al 2009). Results have implications for improved management of shorelines across the Salish Sea, including both protection and restoration strategies

Soft shore protection: lessons learned from 20 years of project design and implementation

Hard armor structures, including bulkheads, seawalls, soldier piles, and other structures are present at 29% of Washington shores of the Salish Sea, as documented in mapping conducted by CGS for the ESRP Beach Strategies project . Hard armor adversely affects nearshore ecosystems by disrupting natural processes of sediment input and transport, reducing resiliency of down-drift coastal areas to impacts of sea level rise, and impairing essential forage fish spawning and other habitats. Soft shore protection, also referred to as sustainable shorelines or nature based solutions, allows for slowing erosion while maintaining natural processes. Soft sure protection design and implementation have received increasing attention and acceptance in the Salish Sea in recent decades. This has stemmed from increasing documentation of negative impacts of hard armor, dramatically stricter regulations, the increasing rigor applied to the design process, and expanded information and outreach. Lessons learned on design and implementation will be presented based on continuously advancing soft shore protection approaches over the past 20 years and the design and implementation of more than 120 of these projects throughout Puget Sound and in the central Salish Sea. Project approaches successfully applied to both residential and larger reaches of shore will be highlighted, organized around different short types (barrier beaches, bluffs, artificial shores), relative wave energy, and by property extent. Principles featured in the 2014 Marine Shoreline Design Guidelines will be distilled, along with data and examples not included in the MSDG. Soft shore protection has been shown to work in all wave energy environments of the Puget Sound region, depending on other factors such as shore orientation, project length, backshore with, and other site characteristics. Case studies will be provided to illustrate points, and site selection implementation pointers will be included as lessons learned. Additional references will be provided for further information

Clinical stakeholders' opinions on the use of selective decontamination of the digestive tract in critically ill patients in intensive care units : an international Delphi study

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The beach strategies geodatabase

This oral presentation will highlight methods, results, and utility of the Beach Strategies geospatial database, recently completed by Coastal Geologic Services as part of the ESRP Learning Program. Making nearshore geospatial data accessible and reliable for use by professionals presents unique challenges. Many coastal datasets in the Puget Sound region of the Salish Sea were mapped by many different scientists over many years, some using inconsistent or outdated methods. Improved remote and field-based mapping methods used in the project have greatly expanded the resolution and reliability of data from previous records. This geodatabase has immense value and implications for nearshore prioritization and restoration. Geospatial products of the Beach Strategies project consist of three major data elements: a shoreline feature class, comprehensive shoreline parcels polygons, and linear referencing routes that convey locations and context for littoral drift mapping (referred heretofore as net shore-drift cells). The shoreline feature class includes best-available mapping of shore armor, geomorphic shoretype (current and historical), fetch, divergence zones, and net shore-drift cells in Puget Sound. The parcel polygons include a compilation of Sound-wide residential and non-residential real estate parcels, which each contain a summary of adjacent, intersecting shoreline data. The linear referencing component treats net shore-drift cells as routes, which allows for examination of up-drift and down-drift relationships between areas of interest, such as identifying the feeder bluffs that supply a down-drift beach with sediment. Together these data can enable improve planning and prioritization of restoration and preservation of coastal processes from a Sound-wide scale to individual real estate parcels. All data included in the Beach Strategies geodatabase conforms to the WDNR ShoreZone Shoreline (2001), making it compatible with many existing coastal datasets. This presentation will focus on geodatabase components, structure, and applications for use by nearshore professionals around the region

The ethics of future trials: qualitative analysis of physicians' decision making

Background: The decision to conduct a randomized controlled trial (RCT) in a field raises ethical as well as scientific issues. From the clinical equipoise literature, future trials are justifiable if there is ”honest, professional disagreement in the community of expert practitioners as to the preferred treatment”. Empirical data are sparse about how clinicians apply the principles of equipoise to the justification of future RCTs. For example, selective decontamination of the digestive tract (SDD) is not widely used in critical care practice despite the strength of the evidence base and therefore provides a unique opportunity to learn how clinicians think about the ethics of further RCTs in critical care. Methods: In an international interview study of views of healthcare professionals about SDD, we undertook a secondary analysis of qualitative data collected using a Theoretical Domains Framework of clinical behaviour. We adopted a general descriptive approach to explore how physicians determined whether another RCT of SDD is ethical. Following a constant comparison approach, three investigators reviewed 54 purposively chosen transcripts from three international regions. We interpreted the data using thematic analysis. Results: We grouped participants’ responses into four inter-related themes: 1) cultural norms about evidence and practice within healthcare; 2) personal views about what evidence is current or applicable; 3) the interpersonal and relational nature of professional decision making locally; and 4) an a priori commitment to future trials. The analysis also identified several unresolved tensions regarding when a future RCT should be pursued. These tensions focused on a clash between potential benefits to current individual patients and potential future harms to patients more broadly. Conclusions: Our study suggests that ethical decision making about future RCTs in the field of SDD does not rely strongly on appeals to evidence, even when the quality of the evidence is reasonably high. Rather, “extra-evidential” reasons, including social, professional, and relational factors, seem to influence opinions regarding the ethics of future trials. Further work is required to see if these conclusions are applicable to other clinical topics and settings

Observational and Dynamical Characterization of Main-Belt Comet P/2010 R2 (La Sagra)

We present observations of comet-like main-belt object P/2010 R2 (La Sagra) obtained by Pan-STARRS 1 and the Faulkes Telescope-North on Haleakala in Hawaii, the University of Hawaii 2.2 m, Gemini-North, and Keck I telescopes on Mauna Kea, the Danish 1.54 m telescope at La Silla, and the Isaac Newton Telescope on La Palma. An antisolar dust tail is observed from August 2010 through February 2011, while a dust trail aligned with the object's orbit plane is also observed from December 2010 through August 2011. Assuming typical phase darkening behavior, P/La Sagra is seen to increase in brightness by >1 mag between August 2010 and December 2010, suggesting that dust production is ongoing over this period. These results strongly suggest that the observed activity is cometary in nature (i.e., driven by the sublimation of volatile material), and that P/La Sagra is therefore the most recent main-belt comet to be discovered. We find an approximate absolute magnitude for the nucleus of H_R=17.9+/-0.2 mag, corresponding to a nucleus radius of ~0.7 km, assuming an albedo of p=0.05. Using optical spectroscopy, we find no evidence of sublimation products (i.e., gas emission), finding an upper limit CN production rate of Q_CN<6x10^23 mol/s, from which we infer an H2O production rate of Q_H2O<10^26 mol/s. Numerical simulations indicate that P/La Sagra is dynamically stable for >100 Myr, suggesting that it is likely native to its current location and that its composition is likely representative of other objects in the same region of the main belt, though the relatively close proximity of the 13:6 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter and the (3,-2,-1) three-body mean-motion resonance with Jupiter and Saturn mean that dynamical instability on larger timescales cannot be ruled out.Comment: 23 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in A

En bloc resection of bladder tumour : the rebirth of past through reminiscence

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Selective Caries Removal in Permanent Teeth (SCRiPT) for the treatment of deep carious lesions:a randomised controlled clinical trial in primary care

Background Dental caries is one of the most prevalent non-communicable disease globally and can have serious health sequelae impacting negatively on quality of life. In the UK most adults experience dental caries during their lifetime and the 2009 Adult Dental Health Survey reported that 85% of adults have at least one dental restoration. Conservative removal of tooth tissue for both primary and secondary caries reduces the risk of failure due to tooth-restoration, complex fracture as well as remaining tooth surfaces being less vulnerable to further caries. However, despite its prevalence there is no consensus on how much caries to remove prior to placing a restoration to achieve optimal outcomes. Evidence for selective compared to complete or near-complete caries removal suggests there may be benefits for selective removal in sustaining tooth vitality, therefore avoiding abscess formation and pain, so eliminating the need for more complex and costly treatment or eventual tooth loss. However, the evidence is of low scientific quality and mainly gleaned from studies in primary teeth. Method This is a pragmatic, multi-centre, two-arm patient randomised controlled clinical trial including an internal pilot set in primary dental care in Scotland and England. Dental health professionals will recruit 623 participants over 12-years of age with deep carious lesions in their permanent posterior teeth. Participants will have a single tooth randomised to either the selective caries removal or complete caries removal treatment arm. Baseline measures and outcome data (during the 3-year follow-up period) will be assessed through clinical examination, patient questionnaires and NHS databases. A mixed-method process evaluation will complement the clinical and economic outcome evaluation and examine implementation, mechanisms of impact and context. The primary outcome at three years is sustained tooth vitality. The primary economic outcome is net benefit modelled over a lifetime horizon. Clinical secondary outcomes include pulp exposure, progession of caries, restoration failure; as well as patient-centred and economic outcomes. Discussion SCRiPT will provide evidence for the most clinically effective and cost-beneficial approach to managing deep carious lesions in permanent posterior teeth in primary care. This will support general dental practitioners, patients and policy makers in decision making. Trial Registration Trial registry: ISRCTN. Trial registration number: ISRCTN76503940. Date of Registration: 30.10.2019