Inherent bounds on forecast accuracy due to observation uncertainty caused by temporal sampling

© Copyright 2015 American Meteorological Society (AMS).Author Affiliations: MARION P. MITTERMAIER (Numerical Modelling, Weather Science, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom). DAVID B. STEPHENSON (Exeter Climate Systems, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Exeter University, Exeter, United Kingdom)Synoptic observations are often treated as error-free representations of the true state of the real world. For example, when observations are used to verify numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts, forecast-observation differences (the total error) are often entirely attributed to forecast inaccuracy. Such simplification is no longer justifiable for short-lead forecasts made with increasingly accurate higher-resolution models. For example, at least 25% of t + 6 h individual Met Office site-specific (postprocessed) temperature forecasts now typically have total errors of less than 0.2 K, which are comparable to typical instrument measurement errors of around 0.1 K. In addition to instrument errors, uncertainty is introduced by measurements not being taken concurrently with the forecasts. For example, synoptic temperature observations in the United Kingdom are typically taken 10 min before the hour, whereas forecasts are generally extracted as instantaneous values on the hour. This study develops a simple yet robust statistical modeling procedure for assessing how serially correlated subhourly variations limit the forecast accuracy that can be achieved. The methodology is demonstrated by application to synoptic temperature observations sampled every minute at several locations around the United Kingdom. Results show that subhourly variations lead to sizeable forecast errors of 0.16-0.44 K for observations taken 10 min before the forecast issue time. The magnitude of this error depends on spatial location and the annual cycle, with the greater errors occurring in the warmer seasons and at inland sites. This important source of uncertainty consists of a bias due to the diurnal cycle, plus irreducible uncertainty due to unpredictable subhourly variations that fundamentally limit forecast accuracy.NCAR-DT

Magnetic field reversals and galactic dynamos

We argue that global magnetic field reversals similar to those observed in the Milky Way occur quite frequently in mean-field galactic dynamo models that have relatively strong, random, seed magnetic fields that are localized in discrete regions. The number of reversals decreases to zero with reduction of the seed strength, efficiency of the galactic dynamo and size of the spots of the seed field. A systematic observational search for magnetic field reversals in a representative sample of spiral galaxies promises to give valuable information concerning seed magnetic fields and, in this way, to clarify the initial stages of galactic magnetic field evolution

P7C3-A20 neuroprotection is independent of Wallerian degeneration in Primary Neuronal Culture

The anti-apoptotic, neuroprotective compound P7C3-A20 reduces neurological deficits when administered to murine in vivo models of traumatic brain injury. P7C3-A20 is thought to exert its activity through small-molecule activation of the enzyme nicotinamide phosphoribosyltransferase (NAMPT). This enzyme converts nicotinamide to nicotinamide mononucleotide (NMN), the precursor to nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD) synthesis. Alterations to this bioenergetic pathway have been shown to induce Wallerian degeneration of the distal neurite following injury. This study aimed to establish whether P7C3-A20, through induction of NAMPT activity, would affect the rate of Wallerian degeneration. The model systems used were dissociated primary cortical neurons, dissociated superior cervical ganglion neurons, and superior cervical ganglion explants. P7C3-A20 failed to demonstrate any protection against Wallerian degeneration induced by neurite transection or vincristine administration. Furthermore, there was a concentration dependent neurotoxicity. These findings are important in understanding the mechanism by which P7C3-A20 mediates its effects- a key step before moving to human clinical trials.Wellcome Trus

Stages of development and injury: an epidemiological survey of young children presenting to an emergency department

<p><b>Background:</b> The aim of our study was to use a local (Glasgow, west of Scotland) version of a Canadian injury surveillance programme (CHIRPP) to investigate the relationship between the developmental stage of young (pre-school) children, using age as a proxy, and the occurrence (incidence, nature, mechanism and location) of injuries presenting to a Scottish hospital emergency department, in an attempt to replicate the findings of a recent study in Kingston, Canada.</p> <p><b>Methods:</b> We used the Glasgow CHIRPP data to perform two types of analyses. First, we calculated injury rates for that part of the hospital catchment area for which reasonably accurate population denominators were available. Second, we examined detailed injury patterns, in terms of the circumstances, mechanisms, location and types of injury. We compared our findings with those of the Kingston researchers.</p> <p><b>Results:</b> A total of 17,793 injury records for children aged up to 7 years were identified over the period 1997–99. For 1997–2001, 6,188 were used to calculate rates in the west of the city only. Average annual age specific rates per 1000 children were highest in both males and females aged 12–35 months. Apart from the higher rates in Glasgow, the pattern of injuries, in terms of breakdown factors, mechanism, location, context, and nature of injury, were similar in Glasgow and Kingston.</p> <p><b>Conclusion:</b> We replicated in Glasgow, UK, the findings of a Canadian study demonstrating a correlation between the pattern of childhood injuries and developmental stage. Future research should take account of the need to enhance statistical power and explore the interaction between age and potential confounding variables such as socio-economic deprivation. Our findings highlight the importance of designing injury prevention interventions that are appropriate for specific stages of development in children.</p&gt

Antibodies from malaria-exposed pregnant women recognize trypsin resistant epitopes on the surface of Plasmodium falciparum-infected erythrocytes selected for adhesion to chondroitin sulphate A

BACKGROUND: The ability of Plasmodium falciparum-infected erythrocytes to adhere to the microvasculature endothelium is thought to play a causal role in malaria pathogenesis. Cytoadhesion to endothelial receptors is generally found to be highly sensitive to trypsinization of the infected erythrocyte surface. However, several studies have found that parasite adhesion to placental receptors can be markedly less sensitive to trypsin. This study investigates whether chondroitin sulphate A (CSA) binding parasites express trypsin-resistant variant surface antigens (VSA) that bind female-specific antibodies induced as a result of pregnancy associated malaria (PAM). METHODS: Fluorescence activated cell sorting (FACS) was used to measure the levels of adult Scottish and Ghanaian male, and Ghanaian pregnant female plasma immunoglobulin G (IgG) that bind to the surface of infected erythrocytes. P. falciparum clone FCR3 cultures were used to assay surface IgG binding before and after selection of the parasite for adhesion to CSA. The effect of proteolytic digestion of parasite erythrocyte surface antigens on surface IgG binding and adhesion to CSA and hyaluronic acid (HA) was also studied. RESULTS: P. falciparum infected erythrocytes selected for adhesion to CSA were found to express trypsin-resistant VSA that are the target of naturally acquired antibodies from pregnant women living in a malaria endemic region of Ghana. However in vitro adhesion to CSA and HA was relatively trypsin sensitive. An improved labelling technique for the detection of VSA expressed by CSA binding isolates has also been described. CONCLUSION: The VSA expressed by CSA binding P. falciparum isolates are currently considered potential targets for a vaccine against PAM. This study identifies discordance between the trypsin sensitivity of CSA binding and surface recognition of CSA selected parasites by serum IgG from malaria exposed pregnant women. Thus, the complete molecular definition of an antigenic P. falciparum erythrocyte surface protein that can be used as a malaria in pregnancy vaccine has not yet been achieved

Building governance and energy efficiency: Mapping the interdisciplinary challenge

Improving the energy efficiency of multi-owned properties (MoPs)—commonly known as apartment or condominium buildings—is central to the achievement of European energy targets. However, little work to date has focused on how to facilitate retrofit in this context. Drawing on interdisciplinary Social Sciences and Humanities expertise in academia, policy and practice, this chapter posits that decision-making processes within MoPs might provide a key to the retrofit challenge. Existing theories or models of decision-making, applied in the MoP context, might help to explain how collective retrofit decisions are taken—or overlooked. Insights from case studies and practitioners are also key. Theories of change might then be employed to develop strategies to facilitate positive retrofit decisions. The chapter maps the issues and sets an agenda for further interdisciplinary research in this novel area

Rapid and specific biotin labelling of the erythrocyte surface antigens of both cultured and ex-vivo Plasmodium parasites

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Sensitive detection of parasite surface antigens expressed on erythrocyte membranes is necessary to further analyse the molecular pathology of malaria. This study describes a modified biotin labelling/osmotic lysis method which rapidly produces membrane extracts enriched for labelled surface antigens and also improves the efficiency of antigen recovery compared with traditional detergent extraction and surface radio-iodination. The method can also be used with <it>ex-vivo </it>parasites.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>After surface labelling with biotin in the presence of the inhibitor furosemide, detergent extraction and osmotic lysis methods of enriching for the membrane fractions were compared to determine the efficiency of purification and recovery. Biotin-labelled proteins were identified on silver-stained SDS-polyacrylamide gels.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Detergent extraction and osmotic lysis were compared for their capacity to purify biotin-labelled <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>and <it>Plasmodium chabaudi </it>erythrocyte surface antigens. The pellet fraction formed after osmotic lysis of <it>P. falciparum-infected </it>erythrocytes is notably enriched in suface antigens, including PfEMP1, when compared to detergent extraction. There is also reduced co-extraction of host proteins such as spectrin and Band 3.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Biotinylation and osmotic lysis provides an improved method to label and purify parasitised erythrocyte surface antigen extracts from both <it>in vitro </it>and <it>ex vivo Plasmodium </it>parasite preparations.</p

Social network analysis as a tool to inform anguillid eel conservation and management

Eel Management Plans demand European silver eel (Anguilla anguilla) escapement to the sea of at least 40% of that expected historically in the absence of human impacts. Landlocked lentic waterbodies, such as drinking water reservoirs, host substantial numbers of eel, which could represent a significant contribution to catchment-based conservation targets. To optimize netting strategies for eel management policies, information on their aggregation behaviour is currently needed but lacking. We performed a fine-scale acoustic tracking study to monitor the movements of 86 European eel in a UK reservoir. Social network sampling and sensitivity analyses were used to assess whether eel aggregate at scales relevant for current capture techniques. European eel were found to aggregate at spatial and temporal scales of 50 m and 2 days, respectively, which complements current capture methodologies and recommendations. Aggregations were not driven by fixed resources, indicating that other factors, such as sociality, may drive aggregation behaviour. Results also show that current netting practices could be optimized by increasing netting lengths from 50 to 80 m. In addition to aiding conservation and management protocols, these results provide an ecological foundation for exploring the role of social behaviour in this Critically Endangered species

A Multi-Armed Bandit to Smartly Select a Training Set from Big Medical Data

With the availability of big medical image data, the selection of an adequate training set is becoming more important to address the heterogeneity of different datasets. Simply including all the data does not only incur high processing costs but can even harm the prediction. We formulate the smart and efficient selection of a training dataset from big medical image data as a multi-armed bandit problem, solved by Thompson sampling. Our method assumes that image features are not available at the time of the selection of the samples, and therefore relies only on meta information associated with the images. Our strategy simultaneously exploits data sources with high chances of yielding useful samples and explores new data regions. For our evaluation, we focus on the application of estimating the age from a brain MRI. Our results on 7,250 subjects from 10 datasets show that our approach leads to higher accuracy while only requiring a fraction of the training data.Comment: MICCAI 2017 Proceeding

Development and evaluation of a diagnostic cytokine-release assay for Mycobacterium suricattae infection in meerkats (Suricata suricatta)

CITATION: Clarke, C., et al. 2017. Development and evaluation of a diagnostic cytokine-release assay for mycobacterium suricattae infection in meerkats (Suricata suricatta). BMC Veterinary Research, 13:2, doi:10.1186/s12917-016-0927-x.The original publication is available at http://bmcvetres.biomedcentral.comBackground: Sensitive diagnostic tools are necessary for the detection of Mycobacterium suricattae infection in meerkats (Suricata suricatta) in order to more clearly understand the epidemiology of tuberculosis and the ecological consequences of the disease in this species. We therefore aimed to develop a cytokine release assay to measure antigen-specific cell-mediated immune responses of meerkats. Results: Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) were evaluated for the detection of interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) and IFN-γ inducible protein 10 (IP-10) in meerkat plasma. An IP-10 ELISA was selected to measure the release of this cytokine in whole blood in response to Bovigam® PC-HP Stimulating Antigen, a commercial peptide pool of M. bovis antigens. Using this protocol, captive meerkats with no known M. suricattae exposure (n = 10) were tested and results were used to define a diagnostic cut off value (mean plus 2 standard deviations). This IP-10 release assay (IPRA) was then evaluated in free-living meerkats with known M. suricattae exposure, categorized as having either a low, moderate or high risk of infection with this pathogen. In each category, respectively, 24.7%, 27.3% and 82.4% of animals tested IPRA-positive. The odds of an animal testing positive was 14.0 times greater for animals with a high risk of M. suricattae infection compared to animals with a low risk. Conclusion: These results support the use of this assay as a measure of M. suricattae exposure in meerkat populations. Ongoing longitudinal studies aim to evaluate the value of the IPRA as a diagnostic test of M. suricattae infection in individual animals.http://bmcvetres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12917-016-0927-xPublisher's versio