Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors. Methods We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis. Findings We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4–65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8–175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [–7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64–1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52–1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41–67]) and western Europe (74% [58–90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329–403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323–395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia. Interpretation Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia

Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived with Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups from 2010 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Importance: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden. Objective: To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019. Evidence Review: The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95 uncertainty intervals (UIs). Findings: In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95 UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95 UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3 (95 UI, 20.3-32.3) increase in new cases, a 20.9 (95 UI, 14.2-27.6) increase in deaths, and a 16.0 (95 UI, 9.3-22.8) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4 (1.1-1.8) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7 (4.2-7.1) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.. © 2021 American Medical Association. All rights reserved

Lambda(+)(C) production in pb-pb collisions at root S-NN=5.02 TeV

A measurement of the production of prompt +cbaryons in Pb–Pb collisions at √sNN=5.02 TeV with the ALICE detector at the LHC is reported. The +cand −cwere reconstructed at midrapidity (|y| <0.5) via the hadronic decay channel +c→pK0S(and charge conjugate) in the transverse momentum and centrality intervals 6 <pT<12 GeV/cand 0–80%. The +c/D0ratio, which is sensitive to the charm quark hadronisation mechanisms in the medium, is measured and found to be larger than the ratio measured in minimum-bias pp collisions at √s=7TeV and in p–Pb collisions at √sNN=5.02 TeV. In particular, the values in p–Pb and Pb–Pb collisions differ by about two standard deviations of the combined statistical and systematic uncertainties in the common pTinterval covered by the measurements in the two collision systems. The +c/D0ratio is also compared with model calculations including different implementations of charm quark hadronisation. The measured ratio is reproduced by models implementing a pure coalescence scenario, while adding a fragmentation contribution leads to an underestimation. The +cnuclear modification factor, RAA, is also presented. The measured values of the RAAof +c, D+sand non-strange D mesons are compatible within the combined statistical and systematic uncertainties. They show, however, a hint of a hierarchy (RD0AA<RD+sAA<R +cAA), conceivable with a contribution from coalescence mechanisms to charm hadron formation in the medium

Λ c+ production in Pb–Pb collisions at s NN =5.02 TeV

AA measurement of the production of prompt Λ c + baryons in Pb–Pb collisions at s NN =5.02 TeV with the ALICE detector at the LHC is reported. The Λ c + and Λ‾ c − were reconstructed at midrapidity (|y|&lt;0.5) via the hadronic decay channel Λ c + →pK S 0 (and charge conjugate) in the transverse momentum and centrality intervals

Dielectron and heavy-quark production in inelastic and high-multiplicity proton–proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV

The measurement of dielectron production is presented as a function of invariant mass and transverse momentum (pT) at midrapidity (|ye| < 0.8) in proton–proton (pp) collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 13 TeV. The contributions from light-hadron decays are calculated from their measured cross sections in pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV or 13 TeV. The remaining continuum stems from correlated semileptonic decays of heavy-flavour hadrons. Fitting the data with templates from two different MC event generators, PYTHIA and POWHEG, the charm and beauty cross sections at midrapidity are extracted for the first time at this collision energy: dσcc¯/dy|y=0 = 974 ± 138 (stat.) ± 140 (syst.) ± 214(BR) μb and dσbb¯ /dy|y=0 = 79 ± 14 (stat.) ± 11 (syst.) ± 5(BR) μb using PYTHIA simulations and dσcc¯/dy|y=0 = 1417 ± 184 (stat.) ± 204 (syst.) ± 312(BR) μb and dσbb¯ /dy|y=0 = 48 ± 14 (stat.) ± 7 (syst.) ± 3(BR) μb for POWHEG. These values, whose uncertainties are fully correlated between the two generators, are consistent with extrapolations from lower energies. The different results obtained with POWHEG and PYTHIA imply different kinematic correlations of the heavy-quark pairs in these two generators. Furthermore, comparisons of dielectron spectra in inelastic events and in events collected with a trigger on high charged-particle multiplicities are presented in various pT intervals. The differences are consistent with the already measured scaling of light-hadron and open-charm production at high charged-particle multiplicity as a function of pT. Upper limits for the contribution of virtual direct photons are extracted at 90% confidence level and found to be in agreement with pQCD calculations

Transverse-momentum and event-shape dependence of D-meson flow harmonics in Pb–Pb collisions at √sNN = 5.02 TeV

The elliptic and triangular flow coefficients v2 and v3 of prompt D0, D+, and D∗+ mesons were measured at midrapidity (|y| < 0.8) in Pb–Pb collisions at the centre-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of √sNN = 5.02 TeV with the ALICE detector at the LHC. The D mesons were reconstructed via their hadronic decays in the transverse momentum interval 1 < pT < 36 GeV/c in central (0–10%) and semi-central (30–50%) collisions. Compared to pions, protons, and J/ψ mesons, the average D-meson vn harmonics are compatible within uncertainties with a mass hierarchy for pT 3 GeV/c, and are similar to those of charged pions for higher pT. The coupling of the charm quark to the light quarks in the underlying medium is further investigated with the application of the event-shape engineering (ESE) technique to the D-meson v2 and pT-differential yields. The D-meson v2 is correlated with average bulk elliptic flow in both central and semi-central collisions. Within the current precision, the ratios of per-event Dmeson yields in the ESE-selected and unbiased samples are found to be compatible with unity. All the measurements are found to be reasonably well described by theoretical calculations including the effects of charm-quark transport and the recombination of charm quarks with light quarks in a hydrodynamically expanding medium

ϒ production in p–Pb collisions at √s=8.16 TeV

ϒ production in p–Pb interactions is studied at the centre-of-mass energy per nucleon–nucleon collision √sNN = 8.16 TeV with the ALICE detector at the CERN LHC. The measurement is performed reconstructing bottomonium resonances via their dimuon decay channel, in the centre-of-mass rapidity intervals 2.03 < ycms < 3.53 and −4.46 < ycms < −2.96, down to zero transverse momentum. In this work, results on the ϒ(1S) production cross section as a function of rapidity and transverse momentum are presented. The corresponding nuclear modification factor shows a suppression of the ϒ(1S) yields with respect to pp collisions, both at forward and backward rapidity. This suppression is stronger in the low transverse momentum region and shows no significant dependence on the centrality of the interactions. Furthermore, the ϒ(2S) nuclear modification factor is evaluated, suggesting a suppression similar to that of the ϒ(1S). A first measurement of the ϒ(3S) has also been performed. Finally, results are compared with previous ALICE measurements in p–Pb collisions at √sNN = 5.02 TeV and with theoretical calculations.publishedVersio

Study of the Λ–Λ interaction with femtoscopy correlations in pp and p–Pb collisions at the LHC

This work presents new constraints on the existence and the binding energy of a possible – bound state, the H-dibaryon, derived from – femtoscopic measurements by the ALICE collaboration. The results are obtained from a new measurement using the femtoscopy technique in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV and p–Pb collisions at √sNN = 5.02 TeV, combined with previously published results from pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV. The – scattering parameter space, spanned by the inverse scattering length f −1 0 and the effective range d0, is constrained by comparing the measured – correlation function with calculations obtained within the Lednický model. The data are compatible with hypernuclei results and lattice computations, both predicting a shallow attractive interaction, and permit to test different theoretical approaches describing the – interaction. The region in the (f −1 0 ,d0) plane which would accommodate a – bound state is substantially restricted compared to previous studies. The binding energy of the possible – bound state is estimated within an effective-range expansion approach and is found to be B = 3.2+1.6 −2.4(stat)+1.8 −1.0(syst) MeV