Bayesian Multimodel Inference for Geostatistical Regression Models

The problem of simultaneous covariate selection and parameter inference for spatial regression models is considered. Previous research has shown that failure to take spatial correlation into account can influence the outcome of standard model selection methods. A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is investigated for the calculation of parameter estimates and posterior model probabilities for spatial regression models. The method can accommodate normal and non-normal response data and a large number of covariates. Thus the method is very flexible and can be used to fit spatial linear models, spatial linear mixed models, and spatial generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). The Bayesian MCMC method also allows a priori unequal weighting of covariates, which is not possible with many model selection methods such as Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The proposed method is demonstrated on two data sets. The first is the whiptail lizard data set which has been previously analyzed by other researchers investigating model selection methods. Our results confirmed the previous analysis suggesting that sandy soil and ant abundance were strongly associated with lizard abundance. The second data set concerned pollution tolerant fish abundance in relation to several environmental factors. Results indicate that abundance is positively related to Strahler stream order and a habitat quality index. Abundance is negatively related to percent watershed disturbance

Polyunsaturated fatty acid intake and prevalence of eczema and rhinoconjunctivitis in Japanese children: The Ryukyus Child Health Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The recent increase in the prevalence of allergic disorders might be a consequence of increased intake of n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) and reduced intake of n-3 PUFAs. The current cross-sectional study examined the association between intake levels and the prevalence of eczema and rhinoconjunctivitis in Japanese children.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Subjects were 23,388 schoolchildren aged 6-15 years residing in Okinawa. The presence of eczema and/or rhinoconjunctivitis was determined according to the criteria of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood. A brief diet history questionnaire for children and adolescents was administered to acquire information on dietary factors. Adjustment was made for age, sex, residential municipality, number of siblings, smoking in the household, body mass index, paternal and maternal history of allergic diseases, and paternal and maternal educational level.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The prevalences of eczema and rhinoconjunctivitis in the previous 12 months were 7.0% and 8.0%, respectively. Consumption of PUFAs, n-3 PUFAs, α-linolenic acid, n-6 PUFAs, and linoleic acid was positively associated with the prevalence of eczema: the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) between extreme quintiles (95% confidence intervals [CIs], <it>P </it>for trend) were 1.26 (1.07-1.48, 0.04), 1.31 (1.11-1.54, 0.009), 1.31 (1.12-1.55, 0.003), 1.26 (1.07-1.48, 0.01), and 1.27 (1.08-1.49, 0.01), respectively. Arachidonic acid intake was independently inversely related to eczema: the adjusted OR between extreme quintiles was 0.81 (0.69-0.95, 0.0008). Eczema was not associated with eicosapentaenoic or docosahexaenoic acid intake, or with the ratio of n-3 to n-6 PUFA intake. Only arachidonic acid intake was statistically significantly related to the prevalence of rhinoconjunctivitis, showing a clear inverse linear trend: the adjusted OR between extreme quintiles was 0.86 (0.74-0.997, 0.03).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Consumption of n-3 and n-6 PUFAs, especially α-linolenic acid and linoleic acid, may be positively associated with eczema. Arachidonic acid intake may be inversely related to eczema and rhinoconjunctivitis.</p

Chemical intervention in plant sugar signalling increases yield and resilience

The pressing global issue of food insecurity due to population growth, diminishing land and variable climate can only be addressed in agriculture by improving both maximum crop yield potential and resilience. Genetic modification is one potential solution, but has yet to achieve worldwide acceptance, particularly for crops such as wheat. Trehalose-6-phosphate (T6P), a central sugar signal in plants, regulates sucrose use and allocation, underpinning crop growth and development. Here we show that application of a chemical intervention strategy directly modulates T6P levels in planta. Plant-permeable analogues of T6P were designed and constructed based on a ‘signalling-precursor’ concept for permeability, ready uptake and sunlight-triggered release of T6P in planta. We show that chemical intervention in a potent sugar signal increases grain yield, whereas application to vegetative tissue improves recovery and resurrection from drought. This technology offers a means to combine increases in yield with crop stress resilience. Given the generality of the T6P pathway in plants and other small-molecule signals in biology, these studies suggest that suitable synthetic exogenous small-molecule signal precursors can be used to directly enhance plant performance and perhaps other organism function

Association of herd BRSV and BHV-1 seroprevalence with respiratory disease and reproductive performance in adult dairy cattle

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aim of this study was to detect the associations between bovine herpesvirus 1 (BHV-1) status of a herd and respiratory disease (BRD) occurrence and reproductive performance in pregnant heifers and cows. The association between management-related factors and higher BRD occurrence was also estimated.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Serum samples, collected from cows and youngstock from 103 dairy cattle herds, were analyzed for antibodies against BHV-1, bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV), bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV), and <it>Mycoplasma bovis</it>. A questionnaire was used to collect data concerning herd management factors and reproductive performance, as well as the occurrence of clinical signs of respiratory disease in the last two years, as evaluated by the veterinarian or farm manager. Multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) and logistic regression analysis were performed to identify and quantify the risk factors.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A low to moderate prevalence (1-49%) of BRSV antibodies among youngstock was associated with a high occurrence of respiratory disease (OR = 6.2, p = 0.010) in cows and in-calf heifers. Employees of the farm may participate in the spread of such disease. Larger herd size, loose-housing of cows, housing youngstock separately from cows until pregnancy, and purchasing new animals were factors possibly related to a high occurrence of respiratory disease symptoms in pregnant heifers and cows. The highest risk of abortions (> 1.3%) and increased insemination index (number of inseminations per pregnancy) (> 1.9) occurred in herds with a moderate prevalence of BHV-1 antibodies (1-49%) in cows.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>BHV-1 was not associated with acute respiratory disease in adult dairy cattle, however was significantly related to reproductive performance. BRSV possesses the main role in respiratory disease complex in adult dairy cattle.</p

The burden of respiratory infections among older adults in long-term care:a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Respiratory infections among older adults in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) are a major global concern, yet a rigorous systematic synthesis of the literature on the burden of respiratory infections in the LTCF setting is lacking. To address the critical need for evidence regarding the global burden of respiratory infections in LTCFs, we assessed the burden of respiratory infections in LTCFs through a systematic review of the published literature. METHODS: We identified articles published between April 1964 and March 2019 through searches of PubMed (MEDLINE), EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library. Experimental and observational studies published in English that included adults aged ≥60 residing in LTCFs who were unvaccinated (to identify the natural infection burden), and that reported measures of occurrence for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), or pneumonia were included. Disagreements about article inclusion were discussed and articles were included based on consensus. Data on study design, population, and findings were extracted from each article. Findings were synthesized qualitatively. RESULTS: A total of 1451 articles were screened for eligibility, 345 were selected for full-text review, and 26 were included. Study population mean ages ranged from 70.8 to 90.1 years. Three (12%) studies reported influenza estimates, 7 (27%) RSV, and 16 (62%) pneumonia. Eighteen (69%) studies reported incidence estimates, 7 (27%) prevalence estimates, and 1 (4%) both. Seven (27%) studies reported outbreaks. Respiratory infection incidence estimates ranged from 1.1 to 85.2% and prevalence estimates ranging from 1.4 to 55.8%. Influenza incidences ranged from 5.9 to 85.2%. RSV incidence proportions ranged from 1.1 to 13.5%. Pneumonia prevalence proportions ranged from 1.4 to 55.8% while incidence proportions ranged from 4.8 to 41.2%. CONCLUSIONS: The reported incidence and prevalence estimates of respiratory infections among older LTCF residents varied widely between published studies. The wide range of estimates offers little useful guidance for decision-making to decrease respiratory infection burden. Large, well-designed epidemiologic studies are therefore still necessary to credibly quantify the burden of respiratory infections among older adults in LTCFs, which will ultimately help inform future surveillance and intervention efforts

Analysis of genome-wide structure, diversity and fine mapping of Mendelian traits in traditional and village chickens

Extensive phenotypic variation is a common feature among village chickens found throughout much of the developing world, and in traditional chicken breeds that have been artificially selected for traits such as plumage variety. We present here an assessment of traditional and village chicken populations, for fine mapping of Mendelian traits using genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping while providing information on their genetic structure and diversity. Bayesian clustering analysis reveals two main genetic backgrounds in traditional breeds, Kenyan, Ethiopian and Chilean village chickens. Analysis of linkage disequilibrium (LD) reveals useful LD (r(2)⩾0.3) in both traditional and village chickens at pairwise marker distances of ∼10 Kb; while haplotype block analysis indicates a median block size of 11–12 Kb. Association mapping yielded refined mapping intervals for duplex comb (Gga 2:38.55–38.89 Mb) and rose comb (Gga 7:18.41–22.09 Mb) phenotypes in traditional breeds. Combined mapping information from traditional breeds and Chilean village chicken allows the oocyan phenotype to be fine mapped to two small regions (Gga 1:67.25–67.28 Mb, Gga 1:67.28–67.32 Mb) totalling ∼75 Kb. Mapping the unmapped earlobe pigmentation phenotype supports previous findings that the trait is sex-linked and polygenic. A critical assessment of the number of SNPs required to map simple traits indicate that between 90 and 110K SNPs are required for full genome-wide analysis of haplotype block structure/ancestry, and for association mapping in both traditional and village chickens. Our results demonstrate the importance and uniqueness of phenotypic diversity and genetic structure of traditional chicken breeds for fine-scale mapping of Mendelian traits in the species, with village chicken populations providing further opportunities to enhance mapping resolutions

Race/ethnicity and potential suicide misclassification: window on a minority suicide paradox?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Suicide officially kills approximately 30,000 annually in the United States. Analysis of this leading public health problem is complicated by undercounting. Despite persisting socioeconomic and health disparities, non-Hispanic Blacks and Hispanics register suicide rates less than half that of non-Hispanic Whites.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This cross-sectional study uses multiple cause-of-death data from the US National Center for Health Statistics to assess whether race/ethnicity, psychiatric comorbidity documentation, and other decedent characteristics were associated with differential potential for suicide misclassification. Subjects were 105,946 White, Black, and Hispanic residents aged 15 years and older, dying in the US between 2003 and 2005, whose manner of death was recorded as suicide or injury of undetermined intent. The main outcome measure was the relative odds of potential suicide misclassification, a binary measure of manner of death: injury of undetermined intent (includes misclassified suicides) versus suicide.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Blacks (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 2.38; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.22-2.57) and Hispanics (1.17, 1.07-1.28) manifested excess potential suicide misclassification relative to Whites. Decedents aged 35-54 (AOR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.84-0.93), 55-74 (0.52, 0.49-0.57), and 75+ years (0.51, 0.46-0.57) showed diminished misclassification potential relative to decedents aged 15-34, while decedents with 0-8 years (1.82, 1.75-1.90) and 9-12 years of education (1.43, 1.40-1.46) showed excess potential relative to the most educated (13+ years). Excess potential suicide misclassification was also apparent for decedents without (AOR, 3.12; 95% CI, 2.78-3.51) versus those with psychiatric comorbidity documented on their death certificates, and for decedents whose mode of injury was "less active" (46.33; 43.32-49.55) versus "more active."</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Data disparities might explain much of the Black-White suicide rate gap, if not the Hispanic-White gap. Ameliorative action would extend from training in death certification to routine use of psychological autopsies in equivocal-manner-of-death cases.</p

Estimating the Effects of Immigration Status on Mental Health Care Utilizations in the United States

Immigration status is a likely deterrent of mental health care utilization in the United States. Using the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and National Health Interview survey from 2002 to 2006, multivariable logistic regressions were used to estimate the effects of immigration status on mental health care utilization among patients with depression or anxiety disorders. Multivariate regressions showed that immigrants were significantly less likely to take any prescription drugs, but not significantly less likely to have any physician visits compared to US-born citizens. Results also showed that improving immigrants’ health care access and health insurance coverage could potentially reduce disparities between US-born citizens and immigrants by 14–29% and 9–28% respectively. Policy makers should focus on expanding the availability of regular sources of health care and immigrant health coverage to reduce disparities on mental health care utilization. Targeted interventions should also focus on addressing immigrants’ language barriers, and providing culturally appropriate services

Population-Specific Responses to Interspecific Competition in the Gut Microbiota of Two Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar) Populations

The gut microbial community in vertebrates plays a role in nutrient digestion and absorption, development of intestine and immune systems, resistance to infection, regulation of bone mass and even host behavior and can thus impact host fitness. Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) reintroduction efforts into Lake Ontario, Canada, have been unsuccessful, likely due to competition with non-native salmonids. In this study, we explored interspecific competition effects on the gut microbiota of two Atlantic salmon populations (LaHave and Sebago) resulting from four non-native salmonids. After 10 months of rearing in semi-natural stream tanks under six interspecific competition treatments, we characterized the gut microbiota of 178 Atlantic salmon by parallel sequencing the 16S rRNA gene. We found 3978 bacterial OTUs across all samples. Microbiota alpha diversity and abundance of 27 OTUs significantly differed between the two populations. Interspecific competition reduced relative abundance of potential beneficial bacteria (six genera of lactic acid bacteria) as well as 13 OTUs, but only in the LaHave population, indicating population-specific competition effects. The pattern of gut microbiota response to interspecific competition may reflect local adaptation of the host-microbiota interactions and can be used to select candidate populations for improved species reintroduction success