Key actors in driving behavioural change in relation to on-farm biosecurity; a Northern Ireland perspective

Background: Agriculture and farming are valued contributors to local economy in Northern Ireland (NI). There is limited knowledge about farmers’ behaviours and attitudes towards disease biosecurity measures. As part of a larger project, a scenario-based workshop with key stakeholders was organised by the Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute (AFBI)-NI in December 2015. Results: A total of 22 participants belonging to 12 different institutions took part in the workshop. Participants were presented with an overview of previously conducted biosecurity research in NI and England. In small groups, participants were subsequently asked to discuss and give their opinions about a series of questions across four key areas in a semi-structured approach with an external facilitator. The key areas were 1- disease risk perception at the farm level; 2-perceived barriers to implementing on farm biosecurity measures; 3- avenues to successful behaviour change and 4-key industry responsibilities and roles. The discussion showed that training in biosecurity for farmers is important and necessary. Training was recommended to be provided by veterinary surgeons, preferably via a face-to-face format. The discussion addressing disease disclosure proved particularly challenging between those who were prospective buyers of cattle, and those who sold cattle. Conclusions: This workshop provided a unique and invaluable insight into key issues regarding farm level biosecurity activities. From a policy perspective, delivering improved on-farm biosecurity must be addressed via a multidisciplinary approach. This can only be achieved with active involvement, commitment and support of a number of key industry and government stakeholders

Probabilistic simulation for the certification of railway vehicles

The present dynamic certification process that is based on experiments has been essentially built on the basis of experience. The introduction of simulation techniques into this process would be of great interest. However, an accurate simulation of complex, nonlinear systems is a difficult task, in particular when rare events (for example, unstable behaviour) are considered. After analysing the system and the currently utilized procedure, this paper proposes a method to achieve, in some particular cases, a simulation-based certification. It focuses on the need for precise and representative excitations (running conditions) and on their variable nature. A probabilistic approach is therefore proposed and illustrated using an example. First, this paper presents a short description of the vehicle / track system and of the experimental procedure. The proposed simulation process is then described. The requirement to analyse a set of running conditions that is at least as large as the one tested experimentally is explained. In the third section, a sensitivity analysis to determine the most influential parameters of the system is reported. Finally, the proposed method is summarized and an application is presented

Using the net benefit regression framework to construct cost-effectiveness acceptability curves: an example using data from a trial of external loop recorders versus Holter monitoring for ambulatory monitoring of "community acquired" syncope

BACKGROUND: Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs) describe the probability that a new treatment or intervention is cost-effective. The net benefit regression framework (NBRF) allows cost-effectiveness analysis to be done in a simple regression framework. The objective of the paper is to illustrate how net benefit regression can be used to construct a CEAC. METHODS: One hundred patients referred for ambulatory monitoring with syncope or presyncope were randomized to a one-month external loop recorder (n = 49) or 48-hour Holter monitor (n = 51). The primary endpoint was symptom-rhythm correlation during monitoring. Direct costs were calculated based on the 2003 Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP) fee schedule combined with hospital case costing of labour, materials, service and overhead costs for diagnostic testing and related equipment. RESULTS: In the loop recorder group, 63.27% of patients (31/49) had symptom recurrence and successful activation, compared to 23.53% in the Holter group (12/51). The cost in US dollars for loop recording was $648.50 and$212.92 for Holter monitoring. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the loop recorder was $1,096 per extra successful diagnosis. The probability that the loop recorder was cost-effective compared to the Holter monitor was estimated using net benefit regression and plotted on a CEAC. In a sensitivity analysis, bootstrapping was used to examine the effect of distributional assumptions. CONCLUSION: The NBRF is straightforward to use and interpret. The resulting uncertainty surrounding the regression coefficient relates to the CEAC. When the link from the regression's p-value to the probability of cost-effectiveness is tentative, bootstrapping may be used

A New Calibrated Bayesian Internal Goodness-of-Fit Method: Sampled Posterior p-Values as Simple and General p-Values That Allow Double Use of the Data

Background: Recent approaches mixing frequentist principles with Bayesian inference propose internal goodness-of-fit (GOF) p-values that might be valuable for critical analysis of Bayesian statistical models. However, GOF p-values developed to date only have known probability distributions under restrictive conditions. As a result, no known GOF p-value has a known probability distribution for any discrepancy function. Methodology/Principal Findings: We show mathematically that a new GOF p-value, called the sampled posterior p-value (SPP), asymptotically has a uniform probability distribution whatever the discrepancy function. In a moderate finite sample context, simulations also showed that the SPP appears stable to relatively uninformative misspecifications of the prior distribution. Conclusions/Significance: These reasons, together with its numerical simplicity, make the SPP a better canonical GOF p-value than existing GOF p-values

Cancer in the offspring of female radiation workers: a record linkage study

This study uses record linkage between the National Registry of Childhood Tumours (NRCT) and the National Registry for Radiation Workers to re-assess our earlier finding that the offspring of women radiation workers exposed to ionising radiation before the child's conception may be at an increased risk of childhood cancer. An additional 16 964 childhood cancer patients taken from the NRCT, together with the same number of matched controls, are included. Pooled analyses, based on the new and original datasets, include 52 612 cases and their matched controls. Relative risks (RRs) for maternal employment as a radiation worker, maternal exposure or not during the relevant pregnancy and pattern of employment relative to conception and diagnosis dates were calculated

Evidence-based guidelines and decision support services: a discussion and evaluation in triple assessment of suspected breast cancer

Widespread health service goals to improve consistency and safety in patient care have prompted considerable investment in the development of evidence-based clinical guidelines. Computerised decision support (CDS) systems have been proposed as a means to implement guidelines in practice. This paper discusses the general concept in oncology and presents an evaluation of a CDS system to support triple assessment (TA) in breast cancer care. Balanced-block crossover experiment and questionnaire study. One stop clinic for symptomatic breast patients. Twenty-four practising breast clinicians from United Kingdom National Health Service hospitals. A web-based CDS system. Clinicians made significantly more deviations from guideline recommendations without decision support (60 out of 120 errors without CDS; 16 out of 120 errors with CDS, P<0.001). Ignoring minor deviations, 16 potentially critical errors arose in the no-decision-support arm of the trial compared with just one (P=0.001) when decision support was available. Opinions of participating clinicians towards the CDS tool became more positive after they had used it (P<0.025). The use of decision support capabilities in TA may yield significant measurable benefits for quality and safety of patient care. This is an important option for improving compliance with evidence-based practice guidelines

Individualized Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

John Ioannidis and Alan Garber discuss how to use incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) and related metrics so they can be useful for decision-making at the individual level, whether used by clinicians or individual patients

No systemic reactions to influenza vaccination in egg-sensitized tertiary-care pediatric patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There are numerous, disparate guidelines for influenza vaccination in egg-allergic patients. We aimed to describe the outcome of selectively applied guidelines, based on risk-stratification, to our high risk, egg-allergic, tertiary-care pediatric population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Egg allergy was confirmed with skin testing. The vaccine administered was an adjuvunated 2009 H1N1 influenza A vaccine with < 0.165 mcg/ml ovalbumin. Patients with mild egg allergy were to receive the vaccination in 1 dose, those with severe egg allergy were to receive 2 split doses, and patients with exquisite egg allergy or significant co-morbidities were to be skin tested with the vaccine (prick full strength, intradermal 1:100 of final concentration without adjuvant) and had 5 step desensitization if the testing was positive, or 1-2 step administration if negative. Patients were observed for 60 minutes after the final dose and anaphylaxis treatment was available. We report the frequency of allergic reactions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Ninety-nine patients were referred and 79 had positive egg testing. Asthma was present in 67% and 30% had prior anaphylaxis to egg. We vaccinated 77 of 79 patients: 71 without performing vaccine skin testing. Two refused vaccination. No patient had a systemic reaction or required treatment. Two patients experienced positive testing to the adjuvanated intradermal vaccine, but were negative without adjuvant.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results suggest that most egg-allergic tertiary care pediatric patients can be vaccinated with a low ovalbumin content influenza vaccine without prior vaccine testing. Vaccine skin testing, if used at all, can be reserved for special circumstances. The squalene adjuvant may cause an irritant reaction with intradermal testing.</p

Medicine in words and numbers: a cross-sectional survey comparing probability assessment scales

Contains fulltext : 56355.pdf ( ) (Open Access)Background / In the complex domain of medical decision making, reasoning under uncertainty can benefit from supporting tools. Automated decision support tools often build upon mathematical models, such as Bayesian networks. These networks require probabilities which often have to be assessed by experts in the domain of application. Probability response scales can be used to support the assessment process. We compare assessments obtained with different types of response scale. Methods / General practitioners (GPs) gave assessments on and preferences for three different probability response scales: a numerical scale, a scale with only verbal labels, and a combined verbal-numerical scale we had designed ourselves. Standard analyses of variance were performed. Results / No differences in assessments over the three response scales were found. Preferences for type of scale differed: the less experienced GPs preferred the verbal scale, the most experienced preferred the numerical scale, with the groups in between having a preference for the combined verbal-numerical scale. Conclusion / We conclude that all three response scales are equally suitable for supporting probability assessment. The combined verbal-numerical scale is a good choice for aiding the process, since it offers numerical labels to those who prefer numbers and verbal labels to those who prefer words, and accommodates both more and less experienced professionals.8 p

Cross-Serotype Immunity Induced by Immunization with a Conserved Rhinovirus Capsid Protein

Human rhinovirus (RV) infections are the principle cause of common colds and precipitate asthma and COPD exacerbations. There is currently no RV vaccine, largely due to the existence of ∼150 strains. We aimed to define highly conserved areas of the RV proteome and test their usefulness as candidate antigens for a broadly cross-reactive vaccine, using a mouse infection model. Regions of the VP0 (VP4+VP2) capsid protein were identified as having high homology across RVs. Immunization with a recombinant VP0 combined with a Th1 promoting adjuvant induced systemic, antigen specific, cross-serotype, cellular and humoral immune responses. Similar cross-reactive responses were observed in the lungs of immunized mice after infection with heterologous RV strains. Immunization enhanced the generation of heterosubtypic neutralizing antibodies and lung memory T cells, and caused more rapid virus clearance. Conserved domains of the RV capsid therefore induce cross-reactive immune responses and represent candidates for a subunit RV vaccine