Estimation of a probability in inverse binomial sampling under normalized linear-linear and inverse-linear loss

Sequential estimation of the success probability $p$ in inverse binomial sampling is considered in this paper. For any estimator $\hat p$, its quality is measured by the risk associated with normalized loss functions of linear-linear or inverse-linear form. These functions are possibly asymmetric, with arbitrary slope parameters $a$ and $b$ for $\hat pp$ respectively. Interest in these functions is motivated by their significance and potential uses, which are briefly discussed. Estimators are given for which the risk has an asymptotic value as $p$ tends to $0$, and which guarantee that, for any $p$ in $(0,1)$, the risk is lower than its asymptotic value. This allows selecting the required number of successes, $r$, to meet a prescribed quality irrespective of the unknown $p$. In addition, the proposed estimators are shown to be approximately minimax when $a/b$ does not deviate too much from $1$, and asymptotically minimax as $r$ tends to infinity when $a=b$.Comment: 4 figure

The planform mobility of river channel confluences: Insights from analysis of remotely sensed imagery

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.River channel confluences are widely acknowledged as important geomorphological nodes that control the downstream routing of water and sediment, and which are locations for the preservation of thick fluvial deposits overlying a basal scour. Despite their importance, there has been little study of the stratigraphic characteristics of river junctions, or the role of confluence morphodynamics in influencing stratigraphic character and preservation potential. As a result, although it is known that confluences can migrate through time, models of confluence geomorphology and sedimentology are usually presented from the perspective that the confluence remains at a fixed location. This is problematic for a number of reasons, not least of which is the continuing debate over whether it is possible to discriminate between scour that has been generated by autocyclic processes (such as confluence scour) and that driven by allocyclic controls (such as sea-level change). This paper investigates the spatial mobility of river confluences by using the 40-year record of Landsat Imagery to elucidate the styles, rates of change and areal extent over which large river confluence scours may migrate. On the basis of these observations, a new classification of the types of confluence scour is proposed and applied to the Amazon and Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basins. This analysis demonstrates that the drivers of confluence mobility are broadly the same as those that drive channel change more generally. Thus in the GBM basin, a high sediment supply, large variability in monsoonal driven discharge and easily erodible bank materials result in a catchment where over 80% of large confluences are mobile over this 40-year window; conversely this figure is < 40% for the Amazon basin. These results highlight that: i) the potential areal extent of confluence scours is much greater than previously assumed, with the location of some confluences on the Jamuna (Brahmaputra) River migrating over a distance of 20 times the tributary channel width; ii) extensive migration in the confluence location is more common than currently assumed, and iii) confluence mobility is often tied to the lithological and hydrological characteristics of the drainage basins that determine sediment yield.This work was funded by NERC grant NE/I023228/1 to Sambrook Smith, Bull, Nicholas and Best

Global parameter search reveals design principles of the mammalian circadian clock

Background: Virtually all living organisms have evolved a circadian (~24 hour) clock that controls physiological and behavioural processes with exquisite precision throughout the day/night cycle. The suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN), which generates these ~24 h rhythms in mammals, consists of several thousand neurons. Each neuron contains a gene-regulatory network generating molecular oscillations, and the individual neuron oscillations are synchronised by intercellular coupling, presumably via neurotransmitters. Although this basic mechanism is currently accepted and has been recapitulated in mathematical models, several fundamental questions about the design principles of the SCN remain little understood. For example, a remarkable property of the SCN is that the phase of the SCN rhythm resets rapidly after a 'jet lag' type experiment, i.e. when the light/ dark (LD) cycle is abruptly advanced or delayed by several hours. Results: Here, we describe an extensive parameter optimization of a previously constructed simplified model of the SCN in order to further understand its design principles. By examining the top 50 solutions from the parameter optimization, we show that the neurotransmitters' role in generating the molecular circadian rhythms is extremely important. In addition, we show that when a neurotransmitter drives the rhythm of a system of coupled damped oscillators, it exhibits very robust synchronization and is much more easily entrained to light/dark cycles. We were also able to recreate in our simulations the fast rhythm resetting seen after a 'jet lag' type experiment. Conclusion: Our work shows that a careful exploration of parameter space for even an extremely simplified model of the mammalian clock can reveal unexpected behaviours and non-trivial predictions. Our results suggest that the neurotransmitter feedback loop plays a crucial role in the robustness and phase resetting properties of the mammalian clock, even at the single neuron level

The potential of alcohol release doorplates to reduce surface contamination during hand contact

Background: Optimal hand hygiene may be compromised by contact with contaminated environmental surfaces. Aim: To investigate the in-vitro efficacy of a novel alcohol-release doorplate to reduce surface contamination during hand contact. Methods: Prototype, horizontally held, Surfaceskins, alcohol gel-impregnated and control (aluminium) doorplates were challenged (N = 72 per micro-organism) with Staphylococcus aureus-, Eschericia coli-, Enterococcus faecalis-, or Clostridium difficile-contaminated fingers. S. aureus and E. faecalis were used for challenges (90 per micro-organism) of vertical (modified design) doorplates, on days 0, 3, 4, 6, and 7. Surface contamination was measured pre and immediately post challenges using agar contact plates. Findings: Horizontal test, but not control, doorplates demonstrated bacterial killing of S. aureus, E. faecalis and E. coli, but not of C. difficile; hence, only testing of S. aureus and E. faecalis was continued. Vertical Surfaceskins, but not control, doorplates demonstrated rapid killing of S. aureus over seven days. There were significant reductions (>90% up to day 6; P ≤ 0.01) of surface bacterial colony counts compared with controls immediately post challenge. There were also significant reductions in Surfaceskins doorplate enterococcal colony counts compared with controls on every day of testing (P ≤ 0.004). There was no evidence that bacterial recovery was greater from the tops of Surfaceskins doorplates (i.e. due to pooling of contents). Conclusion: Surfaceskins doorplates were efficient at reducing surface contamination by S. aureus, E. faecalis, and E. coli. Reducing microbial contamination of frequently touched door surfaces, and so bacterial transfer via hands, could feasibly reduce the risk of healthcare-associated and other infections

Theorizing media production: the poverty of political economy

This article argues that the Political Economy of Communication (PEC) has generally failed to develop theories of media production. Such theory as exists has been heavily influenced by accounts of mass production and flexible specialization in Hollywood. Hollywood film production has been viewed as paradigmatic of media production in general, in the same way as Ford was for manufacturing, and these theories continue to influence accounts of production across media and cultural industries. The article tests the mass production/flexible specialization paradigm against both the evidence of the Hollywood case and Ford’s mass production system. An alternative paradigm, the theory of craft media production, is also examined. The article then attempts to show how applying organization theory and media economics can provide a more convincing explanation of media production and of the Hollywood case. Finally, the article briefly attempts to show how we might develop rich theoretical explanations of media production by exploring the relationships between economic, organizational and media-specific cultural elements

Factors affecting Removal of Bacterial Pathogens from Healthcare Surfaces during Dynamic Wiping

Wiping of surfaces contaminated with pathogenic bacteria is a key strategy for combatting transmission of healthcare associated infections. It is essential to understand the extent to which removal of bacteria is modulated by fibre properties, biocidal liquid impregnation and applied hand pressure. The influence of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on the removal efficiencies of pathogenic bacteria was studied. Nonwoven wipes made of either hydrophobic (polypropylene) or hygroscopic (lyocell) fibres were manufactured and dynamic removal efficiency of bacteria studied. The single most important parameter affecting bacterial removal efficiency was impregnation with biocidal liquid (p <0.05). For inherently hygroscopic 100% regenerated cellulose (lyocell) wipes impregnated with biocidal liquid, removal of E. coli, S. aureus and E. faecalis improved by increasing the fabric surface density and wiping pressure to their maximal values - 150 g.m-2 and 13.80 kN.m-2 respectively. For inherently hydrophobic 100% polypropylene nonwoven wipes, the same conditions maximised the removal efficiency of S. aureus, but for E. coli and E. faecalis a reduction in the wiping pressure to 4.68 kN.m-2 was required. Best practice involves the use of higher surface density wipes (150 g m-2) containing regenerated cellulose fibres loaded with liquid biocide, and applied with the greatest possible wiping pressure

Molecular, microbiological and clinical characterization of Clostridium difficile isolates from tertiary care hospitals in Colombia

In Colombia, the epidemiology and circulating genotypes of Clostridium difficile have not yet been described. Therefore, we molecularly characterized clinical isolates of C.difficile from patients with suspicion of C.difficile infection (CDI) in three tertiary care hospitals. C.difficile was isolated from stool samples by culture, the presence of A/B toxins were detected by enzyme immunoassay, cytotoxicity was tested by cell culture and the antimicrobial susceptibility determined. After DNA extraction, tcdA, tcdB and binary toxin (CDTa/CDTb) genes were detected by PCR, and PCR-ribotyping performed. From a total of 913 stool samples collected during 2013–2014, 775 were included in the study. The frequency of A/B toxins-positive samples was 9.7% (75/775). A total of 143 isolates of C.difficile were recovered from culture, 110 (76.9%) produced cytotoxic effect in cell culture, 100 (69.9%) were tcdA+/tcdB+, 11 (7.7%) tcdA-/tcdB+, 32 (22.4%) tcdA-/tcdB- and 25 (17.5%) CDTa+/CDTb+. From 37 ribotypes identified, ribotypes 591 (20%), 106 (9%) and 002 (7.9%) were the most prevalent; only one isolate corresponded to ribotype 027, four to ribotype 078 and four were new ribotypes (794,795, 804,805). All isolates were susceptible to vancomycin and metronidazole, while 85% and 7.7% were resistant to clindamycin and moxifloxacin, respectively. By multivariate analysis, significant risk factors associated to CDI were, staying in orthopedic service, exposure to third-generation cephalosporins and staying in an ICU before CDI symptoms; moreover, steroids showed to be a protector factor. These results revealed new C. difficile ribotypes and a high diversity profile circulating in Colombia different from those reported in America and European countries

The sedimentology of river confluences

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.Channel confluences are key nodes within large river networks, and yet surprisingly little is known about their spatial and temporal evolution. Moreover, because confluences are associated with vertical scour that typically extends to several times the mean channel depth, the deposits associated with such scours should have a high preservation potential within the rock record. Paradoxically, such scours are rarely observed, and their preservation and sedimentological interpretation are poorly understood. The present study details results from a physically‐based morphodynamic model that is applied to simulate the evolution and alluvial architecture of large river junctions. Boundary conditions within the model were defined to approximate the junction of the Ganges and Jamuna rivers, Bangladesh, with the model output being supplemented by geophysical datasets collected at this junction. The numerical simulations reveal several distinct styles of sedimentary fill that are related to the morphodynamic behaviour of bars, confluence scour downstream of braid bars, bend scour and major junction scour. Comparison with existing, largely qualitative, conceptual models reveals that none of these can be applied simply, although elements of each are evident in the deposits generated by the numerical simulation and observed in the geophysical data. The characteristics of the simulated scour deposits are found to vary according to the degree of reworking caused by channel migration, a factor not considered adequately in current conceptual models of confluence sedimentology. The alluvial architecture of major junction scours is thus characterized by the prevalence of erosion surfaces in conjunction with the thickest depositional sets. Confluence scour downstream of braid bar and bend scour sites may preserve some large individual sets, but these locations are typically characterized by lower average set thickness compared to major junction scour and by a lack of large‐scale erosional surfaces. Areas of deposition not related to any of the specific scour types highlighted above record the thinnest depositional sets. This variety in the alluvial architecture of scours may go some way towards explaining the paradox of ancient junction scours, that while abundant large scours are likely in the rock record, they have been reported rarely. The present results outline the likely range of confluence sedimentology and will serve as a new tool for recognizing and interpreting these deposits in the ancient fluvial record.This work was funded by a UK Natural Environment Research Council award to Sambrook Smith (NE/I023228/1), Bull (NE/I023864/1) and Nicholas (NE/I023120/1)

Moving to capture children’s attention: developing a methodology for measuring visuomotor attention

Attention underpins many activities integral to a child’s development. However, methodological limitations currently make large-scale assessment of children’s attentional skill impractical, costly and lacking in ecological validity. Consequently we developed a measure of ‘Visual Motor Attention’ (VMA) - a construct defined as the ability to sustain and adapt visuomotor behaviour in response to task-relevant visual information. In a series of experiments, we evaluated the capability of our method to measure attentional processes and their contributions in guiding visuomotor behaviour. Experiment 1 established the method’s core features (ability to track stimuli moving on a tablet-computer screen with a hand-held stylus) and demonstrated its sensitivity to principled manipulations in adults’ attentional load. Experiment 2 standardised a format suitable for use with children and showed construct validity by capturing developmental changes in executive attention processes. Experiment 3 tested the hypothesis that children with and without coordination difficulties would show qualitatively different response patterns, finding an interaction between the cognitive and motor factors underpinning responses. Experiment 4 identified associations between VMA performance and existing standardised attention assessments and thereby confirmed convergent validity. These results establish a novel approach to measuring childhood attention that can produce meaningful functional assessments that capture how attention operates in an ecologically valid context (i.e. attention's specific contribution to visuomanual action)