A dynamic framework for the study of optimal birth intervals reveals the importance of sibling competition and mortality risks

Human reproductive patterns have been well studied, but the mechanisms by which physiology, ecology and existing kin interact to affect the life history need quantification. Here, we create a model to investigate how age-specific interbirth intervals adapt to environmental and intrinsic mortality, and how birth patterns can be shaped by competition and help between siblings. The model provides a flexible framework for studying the processes underlying human reproductive scheduling. We developed a state-based optimality model to determine age-dependent and family-dependent sets of reproductive strategies, including the state of the mother and her offspring. We parameterized the model with realistic mortality curves derived from five human populations. Overall, optimal birth intervals increase until the age of 30 after which they remain relatively constant until the end of the reproductive lifespan. Offspring helping each other does not have much effect on birth intervals. Increasing infant and senescent mortality in different populations decreases interbirth intervals. We show that sibling competition and infant mortality interact to lengthen interbirth intervals. In lower-mortality populations, intense sibling competition pushes births further apart. Varying the adult risk of mortality alone has no effect on birth intervals between populations; competition between offspring drives the differences in birth intervals only when infant mortality is low. These results are relevant to understanding the demographic transition, because our model predicts that sibling competition becomes an important determinant of optimal interbirth intervals only when mortality is low, as in post-transition societies. We do not predict that these effects alone can select for menopause

Utility of the FebriDx point-of-care assay in supporting a triage algorithm for medical admissions with possible COVID-19: an observational cohort study

Objective: To evaluate a triage algorithm used to identify and isolate patients with suspected COVID-19 among medical patients needing admission to hospital using simple clinical criteria and the FebriDx assay. Design:: Retrospective observational cohort. Setting Large acute National Health Service hospital in London, UK. Participants: All medical admissions from the emergency department between 10 August 2020 and 4 November 2020 with a valid SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR result. Interventions: Medical admissions were triaged as likely, possible or unlikely COVID-19 based on clinical criteria. Patients triaged as possible COVID-19 underwent FebriDx lateral flow assay on capillary blood, and those positive for myxovirus resistance protein A (a host response protein) were managed as likely COVID-19. Primary outcome measures: Diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity, specificity and predictive values) of the algorithm and the FebriDx assay using SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR from nasopharyngeal swabs as the reference standard. Results: 4.0% (136) of 3443 medical admissions had RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19. Prevalence of COVID-19 was 46% (80/175) in those triaged as likely, 4.1% (50/1225) in possible and 0.3% (6/2033) in unlikely COVID-19. Using a SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR reference standard, clinical triage had sensitivity of 96% (95% CI 91% to 98%) and specificity of 61.5% (95% CI 59.8% to 63.1%), while the triage algorithm including FebriDx had sensitivity of 93% (95% CI 87% to 96%) and specificity of 86.4% (95% CI 85.2% to 87.5%). While 2033 patients were deemed not to require isolation using clinical criteria alone, the addition of FebriDx to clinical triage allowed a further 826 patients to be released from isolation, reducing the need for isolation rooms by 9.5 per day, 95% CI 8.9 to 10.2. Ten patients missed by the algorithm had mild or asymptomatic COVID-19. Conclusions: A triage algorithm including the FebriDx assay had good sensitivity and was useful to ‘rule-out’ COVID-19 among medical admissions to hospital

Does delayed measurement affect patient reports of provider performance? Implications for performance measurement of medical assistance with tobacco cessation: A Dental PBRN study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background:</p> <p>We compared two methods of measuring provider performance of tobacco control activities: immediate "exit cards" versus delayed telephone follow-up surveys. Current standards, e.g. HEDIS, use delayed patient measures that may over or under-estimate overall performance.</p> <p>Methods:</p> <p>Patients completed exit cards in 60 dental practices immediately after a visit to measure whether the provider "asked" about tobacco use, and "advised" the patient to quit. One to six months later patients were asked the same questions by telephone survey. Using the exit cards as the standard, we quantified performance and calculated sensitivity (agreement of those responding yes on telephone surveys compared with exit cards) and specificity (agreement of those responding no) of the delayed measurement.</p> <p>Results:</p> <p>Among 150 patients, 21% reporting being asked about tobacco use on the exit cards and 30% reporting being asked in the delayed surveys. The sensitivity and specificity were 50% and 75%, respectively. Similarly, among 182 tobacco users, 38% reported being advised to quit on the exit cards and this increased to 51% on the delayed surveys. The sensitivity and specificity were 75% and 64%, respectively. Increasing the delay from the visit to the telephone survey resulted in increasing disagreement.</p> <p>Conclusion:</p> <p>Patient reports differed considerably in immediate versus delayed measures. These results have important implications because they suggest that our delayed measures may over-estimate performance. The immediate exit cards should be included in the armamentarium of tools for measuring providers' performance of tobacco control, and perhaps other service delivery.</p

Cost-Effectiveness of “Golden Mustard” for Treating Vitamin A Deficiency in India

BACKGROUND: Vitamin A deficiency (VAD) is an important nutritional problem in India, resulting in an increased risk of severe morbidity and mortality. Periodic, high-dose vitamin A supplementation is the WHO-recommended method to prevent VAD, since a single dose can compensate for reduced dietary intake or increased need over a period of several months. However, in India only 34 percent of targeted children currently receive the two doses per year, and new strategies are urgently needed. METHODOLOGY: Recent advancements in biotechnology permit alternative strategies for increasing the vitamin A content of common foods. Mustard (Brassica juncea), which is consumed widely in the form of oil by VAD populations, can be genetically modified to express high levels of beta-carotene, a precursor to vitamin A. Using estimates for consumption, we compare predicted costs and benefits of genetically modified (GM) fortification of mustard seed with high-dose vitamin A supplementation and industrial fortification of mustard oil during processing to alleviate VAD by calculating the avertable health burden in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALY). PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We found that all three interventions potentially avert significant numbers of DALYs and deaths. Expanding vitamin A supplementation to all areas was the least costly intervention, at $23-$50 per DALY averted and $1,000-$6,100 per death averted, though cost-effectiveness varied with prevailing health subcenter coverage. GM fortification could avert 5 million-6 million more DALYs and 8,000-46,000 more deaths, mainly because it would benefit the entire population and not just children. However, the costs associated with GM fortification were nearly five times those of supplementation. Industrial fortification was dominated by both GM fortification and supplementation. The cost-effectiveness ratio of each intervention decreased with the prevalence of VAD and was sensitive to the efficacy rate of averted mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Although supplementation is the least costly intervention, our findings also indicate that GM fortification could reduce the VAD disease burden to a substantially greater degree because of its wider reach. Given the difficulties in expanding supplementation to areas without health subcenters, GM fortification of mustard seed is an attractive alternative, and further exploration of this technology is warranted

Aortic stiffness in aortic stenosis assessed by cardiovascular MRI: a comparison between bicuspid and tricuspid valves

Objectives To compare aortic size and stiffness parameters on MRI between bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) and tricuspid aortic valve (TAV) patients with aortic stenosis (AS). Methods MRI was performed in 174 patients with asymptomatic moderate-severe AS (mean AVAI 0.57 ± 0.14 cm2/m2) and 23 controls on 3T scanners. Valve morphology was available/analysable in 169 patients: 63 BAV (41 type-I, 22 type-II) and 106 TAV. Aortic cross-sectional areas were measured at the level of the pulmonary artery bifurcation. The ascending and descending aorta (AA, DA) distensibility, and pulse wave velocity (PWV) around the aortic arch were calculated. Results The AA and DA areas were lower in the controls, with no difference in DA distensibility or PWV, but slightly lower AA distensibility than in the patient group. With increasing age, there was a decrease in distensibility and an increase in PWV. After correcting for age, the AA maximum cross-sectional area was higher in bicuspid vs. tricuspid patients (12.97 [11.10, 15.59] vs. 10.06 [8.57, 12.04] cm2, p < 0.001), but there were no significant differences in AA distensibility (p = 0.099), DA distensibility (p = 0.498) or PWV (p = 0.235). Patients with BAV type-II valves demonstrated a significantly higher AA distensibility and lower PWV compared to type-I, despite a trend towards higher AA area. Conclusions In patients with significant AS, BAV patients do not have increased aortic stiffness compared to those with TAV despite increased ascending aortic dimensions. Those with type-II BAV have less aortic stiffness despite greater dimensions. These results demonstrate a dissociation between aortic dilatation and stiffness and suggest that altered flow patterns may play a role. Key Points • Both cellular abnormalities secondary to genetic differences and abnormal flow patterns have been implicated in the pathophysiology of aortic dilatation and increased vascular complications associated with bicuspid aortic valves (BAV). • We demonstrate an increased ascending aortic size in patients with BAV and moderate to severe AS compared to TAV and controls, but no difference in aortic stiffness parameters, therefore suggesting a dissociation between dilatation and stiffness. • Sub-group analysis showed greater aortic size but lower stiffness parameters in those with BAV type-II AS compared to BAV type-I

Cyclin A is a prognostic indicator in early stage breast cancer with and without tamoxifen treatment

Overexpression of G1-S regulators cyclin D1 or cyclin A is frequently observed in breast cancer and is also to result in ligand-independent activation of oestrogen receptor in vitro. This might therefore, provide a mechanism for failure of tamoxifen treatment. We examined by immunohistochemical staining the effect of deregulation of these, and other cell cycle regulators on tamoxifen treatment in a group of 394 patients with early stage breast cancer. In univariate analysis, expression of cyclin A, Neu, Ki-67 index, and lack of OR expression were significantly associated with worse prognosis. When adjusted by the clinical model (for lymph node status, age, performance status, T-classification, grade, prior surgery, oestrogen receptor status and tamoxifen use), only overexpression of cyclin A and Neu were significantly associated with worse prognosis with hazard ratios of, respectively, 1.709 (P=0.0195) and 1.884 (P=0.0151). Overexpression of cyclin A was found in 86 out of the 201 OR-positive cases treated with tamoxifen, and was the only independent marker associated with worse prognosis (hazard ratio 2.024, P=0.0462). In conclusion, cyclin A is an independent predictor of recurrence of early stage breast cancer and is as such a marker for response in patients treated with tamoxifen

Exploring genetic resistance to infectious salmon anaemia virus in Atlantic salmon by genome-wide association and RNA sequencing

Funding The authors gratefully acknowledge funding from BBSRC (BB/R008612/1, BB/R008973/1), in addition to BBSRC Institute Strategic Programme Grants to the Roslin Institute (BB/P013759/1 and BB/P013740/1).Peer reviewedPublisher PD