A Pacific Ocean general circulation model for satellite data assimilation

A tropical Pacific Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) to be used in satellite data assimilation studies is described. The transfer of the OGCM from a CYBER-205 at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to a CRAY-2 at NASA's Ames Research Center is documented. Two 3-year model integrations from identical initial conditions but performed on those two computers are compared. The model simulations are very similar to each other, as expected, but the simulations performed with the higher-precision CRAY-2 is smoother than that with the lower-precision CYBER-205. The CYBER-205 and CRAY-2 use 32 and 64-bit mantissa arithmetic, respectively. The major features of the oceanic circulation in the tropical Pacific, namely the North Equatorial Current, the North Equatorial Countercurrent, the South Equatorial Current, and the Equatorial Undercurrent, are realistically produced and their seasonal cycles are described. The OGCM provides a powerful tool for study of tropical oceans and for the assimilation of satellite altimetry data

Simulation of low clouds in the Southeast Pacific by the NCEP GFS: sensitivity to vertical mixing

The NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model has an important systematic error shared by many other models: stratocumuli are missed over the subtropical eastern oceans. It is shown that this error can be alleviated in the GFS by introducing a consideration of the low-level inversion and making two modifications in the model's representation of vertical mixing. The modifications consist of (a) the elimination of background vertical diffusion above the inversion and (b) the incorporation of a stability parameter based on the cloud-top entrainment instability (CTEI) criterion, which limits the strength of shallow convective mixing across the inversion. A control simulation and three experiments are performed in order to examine both the individual and combined effects of modifications on the generation of the stratocumulus clouds. Individually, both modifications result in enhanced cloudiness in the Southeast Pacific (SEP) region, although the cloudiness is still low compared to the ISCCP climatology. If the modifications are applied together, however, the total cloudiness produced in the southeast Pacific has realistic values. This nonlinearity arises as the effects of both modifications reinforce each other in reducing the leakage of moisture across the inversion. Increased moisture trapped below the inversion than in the control run without modifications leads to an increase in cloud amount and cloud-top radiative cooling. Then a positive feedback due to enhanced turbulent mixing in the planetary boundary layer by cloud-top radiative cooling leads to and maintains the stratocumulus cover. Although the amount of total cloudiness obtained with both modifications has realistic values, the relative contributions of low, middle, and high layers tend to differ from the observations. These results demonstrate that it is possible to simulate realistic marine boundary clouds in large-scale models by implementing direct and physically based improvements in the model parameterizations

Large-scale and synoptic meteorology in the south-east Pacific during the observations campaign VOCALS-REx in austral Spring 2008

We present a descriptive overview of the meteorology in the south eastern subtropical Pacific (SEP) during the VOCALS-REx intensive observations campaign which was carried out between October and November 2008. Mainly based on data from operational analyses, forecasts, reanalysis, and satellite observations, we focus on spatio-temporal scales from synoptic to planetary. A climatological context is given within which the specific conditions observed during the campaign are placed, with particular reference to the relationships between the large-scale and the regional circulations. The mean circulations associated with the diurnal breeze systems are also discussed. We then provide a summary of the day-to-day synoptic-scale circulation, air-parcel trajectories, and cloud cover in the SEP during VOCALS-REx. Three meteorologically distinct periods of time are identified and the large-scale causes for their different character are discussed. The first period was characterised by significant variability associated with synoptic-scale systems interesting the SEP; while the two subsequent phases were affected by planetary-scale disturbances with a slower evolution. The changes between initial and later periods can be partly explained from the regular march of the annual cycle, but contributions from subseasonal variability and its teleconnections were important. Across the whole of the two months under consideration we find a significant correlation between the depth of the inversion-capped marine boundary layer (MBL) and the amount of low cloud in the area of study. We discuss this correlation and argue that at least as a crude approximation a typical scaling may be applied relating MBL and cloud properties with the large-scale parameters of SSTs and tropospheric temperatures. These results are consistent with previously found empirical relationships involving lower-tropospheric stability

A simple kinematic model for the Lagrangian description of relevant nonlinear processes in the stratospheric polar vortex

In this work, we study the Lagrangian footprint of the planetary waves present in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere during the exceptional sudden Stratospheric warming event that took place during September 2002. Our focus is on constructing a simple kinematic model that retains the fundamental mechanisms responsible for complex fluid parcel evolution, during the polar vortex breakdown and its previous stages. The construction of the kinematic model is guided by the Fourier decomposition of the geopotential field. The study of Lagrangian transport phenomena in the ERA-Interim reanalysis data highlights hyperbolic trajectories, and these trajectories are Lagrangian objects that are the kinematic mechanism for the observed filamentation phenomena. Our analysis shows that the breaking and splitting of the polar vortex is justified in our model by the sudden growth of a planetary wave and the decay of the axisymmetric flow

A simple kinematic model for the Lagrangian description of relevant nonlinear processes in the stratospheric polar vortex

In this work, we study the Lagrangian footprint of the planetary waves present in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere during the exceptional sudden Stratospheric warming event that took place during September 2002. Our focus is on constructing a simple kinematic model that retains the fundamental mechanisms responsible for complex fluid parcel evolution, during the polar vortex breakdown and its previous stages. The construction of the kinematic model is guided by the Fourier decomposition of the geopotential field. The study of Lagrangian transport phenomena in the ERA-Interim reanalysis data highlights hyperbolic trajectories, and these trajectories are Lagrangian objects that are the kinematic mechanism for the observed filamentation phenomena. Our analysis shows that the breaking and splitting of the polar vortex is justified in our model by the sudden growth of a planetary wave and the decay of the axisymmetric flow

The PreVOCA experiment: modeling the lower troposphere in the Southeast Pacific

The Preliminary VOCALS Model Assessment (PreVOCA) aims to assess contemporary atmospheric modeling of the subtropical South East Pacific, with a particular focus on the clouds and the marine boundary layer (MBL). Models results from fourteen modeling centers were collected including operational forecast models, regional models, and global climate models for the month of October 2006. Forecast models and global climate models produced daily forecasts, while most regional models were run continuously during the study period, initialized and forced at the boundaries with global model analyses. Results are compared in the region from 40° S to the equator and from 110° W to 70° W, corresponding to the Pacific coast of South America. Mean-monthly model surface winds agree well with QuikSCAT observed winds and models agree fairly well on mean weak large-scale subsidence in the region next to the coast. However they have greatly differing geographic patterns of mean cloud fraction with only a few models agreeing well with MODIS observations. Most models also underestimate the MBL depth by several hundred meters in the eastern part of the study region. The diurnal cycle of liquid water path is underestimated by most models at the 85° W 20° S stratus buoy site compared with satellite, consistent with previous modeling studies. The low cloud fraction is also underestimated during all parts of the diurnal cycle compared to surface-based climatologies. Most models qualitatively capture the MBL deepening around 15 October 2006 at the stratus buoy, associated with colder air at 700 hPa

Tropical air-sea interaction in general circulation models

An intercomparison is undertaken of the tropical behavior of 17 coupled ocean-atmosphere models in which at least one component may be termed a general circulation model (GCM). The aim is to provide a taxonomy—a description and rough classification—of behavior across the ensemble of models, focusing on interannual variability. The temporal behavior of the sea surface temperature (SST) field along the equator is presented for each model, SST being chosen as the primary variable for intercomparison due to its crucial role in mediating the coupling and because it is a sensitive indicator of climate drift. A wide variety of possible types of behavior are noted among the models. Models with substantial interannual tropical variability may be roughly classified into cases with propagating SST anomalies and cases in which the SST anomalies develop in place. A number of the models also exhibit significant drift with respect to SST climatology. However, there is not a clear relationship between climate drift and the presence or absence of interannual oscillations. In several cases, the mode of climate drift within the tropical Pacific appears to involve coupled feedback mechanisms similar to those responsible for El Niño variability. Implications for coupled-model development and for climate prediction on seasonal to interannual time scales are discussed. Overall, the results indicate considerable sensitivity of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system and suggest that the simulation of the warm-pool/cold-tongue configuration in the equatorial Pacific represents a challenging test for climate model parameterizations

Tropical and subtropical cloud transitions in weather and climate prediction models: The GCSS/WGNE pacific cross-section intercomparison (GPCI)

International audienceA model evaluation approach is proposed in which weather and climate prediction models are analyzed along a Pacific Ocean cross section, from the stratocumulus regions off the coast of California, across the shallow convection dominated trade winds, to the deep convection regions of the ITCZ-the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Cloud System Study/Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (GCSS/WGNE) Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI). The main goal of GPCI is to evaluate and help understand and improve the representation of tropical and subtropical cloud processes in weather and climate prediction models. In this paper, a detailed analysis of cloud regime transitions along the cross section from the subtropics to the tropics for the season June-July-August of 1998 is presented. This GPCI study confirms many of the typical weather and climate prediction model problems in the representation of clouds: underestimation of clouds in the stratocumulus regime by most models with the corresponding consequences in terms of shortwave radiation biases; overestimation of clouds by the 40-yrECMWFRe-Analysis (ERA-40) in the deep tropics (in particular) with the corresponding impact in the outgoing longwave radiation; large spread between the different models in terms of cloud cover, liquid water path and shortwave radiation; significant differences between the models in terms of vertical cross sections of cloud properties (in particular), vertical velocity, and relative humidity. An alternative analysis of cloud cover mean statistics is proposed where sharp gradients in cloud cover along the GPCI transect are taken into account. This analysis shows that the negative cloud bias of some models and ERA-40 in the stratocumulus regions [as compared to the first International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP)] is associated not only with lower values of cloud cover in these regimes, but also with a stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition that occurs too early along the trade wind Lagrangian trajectory. Histograms of cloud cover along the cross section differ significantly between models. Some models exhibit a quasi-bimodal structure with cloud cover being either very large (close to 100%) or very small, while other models show a more continuous transition. The ISCCP observations suggest that reality is in-between these two extreme examples. These different patterns reflect the diverse nature of the cloud, boundary layer, and convection parameterizations in the participating weather and climate prediction models. © 2011 American Meteorological Society

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) was established to study and intercompare climate simulations made with coupled ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere-land GCMs. There are two main phases (CMIP1 and CMIP2), which study, respectively, 1) the ability of models to simulate current climate, and 2) model simulations of climate change due to an idealized change in forcing (a 1% per year CO2 increase). Results from a number of CMIP projects were reported at the first CMIP Workshop held in Melbourne, Australia, in October 1998. Some recent advances in global coupled modeling related to CMIP were also reported. Presentations were based on preliminary unpublished results. Key outcomes from the workshop were that 1) many observed aspects of climate variability are simulated in global coupled models including the North Atlantic oscillation and its linkages to North Atlantic SSTs, El Niño-like events, and monsoon interannual variability; 2) the amplitude of both high- and low-frequency global mean surface temperature variability in many global coupled models is less than that observed, with the former due in part to simulated ENSO in the models being generally weaker than observed, and the latter likely to be at least partially due to the uncertainty in the estimates of past radiative forcing; 3) an El Niño-like pattern in the mean SST response with greater surface warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific than the western equatorial Pacific is found by a number of models in global warming climate change experiments, but other models have a more spatially uniform or even a La Niña-like, response; 4) flux adjustment, by definition, improves the simulation of mean present-day climate over oceans, does not guarantee a drift-free climate, but can produce a stable base state in some models to enable very long term (1000 yr and longer) integrations-in these models it does not appear to have a major effect on model processes or model responses to increasing CO2; and 5) recent multicentury integrations show that a stable surface climate can be attained without flux adjustment (though still with some systematic simulation errors)