Disease prevention versus data privacy : using landcover maps to inform spatial epidemic models

The availability of epidemiological data in the early stages of an outbreak of an infectious disease is vital for modelers to make accurate predictions regarding the likely spread of disease and preferred intervention strategies. However, in some countries, the necessary demographic data are only available at an aggregate scale. We investigated the ability of models of livestock infectious diseases to predict epidemic spread and obtain optimal control policies in the event of imperfect, aggregated data. Taking a geographic information approach, we used land cover data to predict UK farm locations and investigated the influence of using these synthetic location data sets upon epidemiological predictions in the event of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. When broadly classified land cover data were used to create synthetic farm locations, model predictions deviated significantly from those simulated on true data. However, when more resolved subclass land use data were used, moderate to highly accurate predictions of epidemic size, duration and optimal vaccination and ring culling strategies were obtained. This suggests that a geographic information approach may be useful where individual farm-level data are not available, to allow predictive analyses to be carried out regarding the likely spread of disease. This method can also be used for contingency planning in collaboration with policy makers to determine preferred control strategies in the event of a future outbreak of infectious disease in livestock

Magma Pressure-Temperature-Time Paths During Mafic Explosive Eruptions

We have constrained syneruptive pressure-temperature-time (P-T-t) paths of mafic magmas using a combination of short-timescale cooling and decompression chronometers. Recent work has shown that the thermal histories of crystals in the last few seconds to hours of eruption can be constrained using concentration gradients of MgO inside olivine-hosted melt inclusions, produced in response to syneruptive cooling and crystallization of olivine on the inclusion walls. We have applied this technique to the study of melt inclusions erupted by arc and ocean island volcanoes, including the 1974 subplinian eruption of Fuego volcano; the 1977 fire-fountain eruption of Seguam volcano; and three eruptions of Kilauea volcano (episode 1 of the 1959 Kilauea Iki fire-fountain eruption, the 1500 CE vigorous fire-fountain eruption, and the 1650 CE subplinian eruption). Of the eruptions studied so far, melt inclusions from the 1959 Kilauea Iki eruption record the highest syneruptive cooling rates (3–11°C/s) and the shortest cooling durations (4–19 s), while inclusions from the 1974 Fuego eruption record the slowest cooling rates (0.1–1.7°C/s) and longest cooling durations (21–368 s). The high cooling rates inferred for the Kilauea Iki and Seguam fire fountain eruptions are consistent with air quenching over tens of seconds during and after fragmentation and eruption. Melt inclusions sampled from the interiors of small (∼6 cm diameter) volcanic bombs at Fuego are found to have cooled more slowly on average than inclusions sampled from ash (with particle diameters < 2 mm) during the same eruption, as expected based on conductive cooling models. We find evidence for a systematic relationship between cooling rates and decompression rates of magmas, in which rapidly ascending gas-bearing magmas experience slower cooling during ascent and eruption than slowly ascending magmas. Our magma P-T-t constraints for the Kilauea Iki eruption are in broad agreement with isentropic models that show that the dominant driver of cooling in the conduit is adiabatic expansion of a vapor phase; however, at Fuego and Seguam, our results suggest a significant role for latent heat production and/or open-system degassing (both of which violate assumptions required for isentropic ascent). We thereby caution against the application of isentropic conduit models to magmas containing relatively high initial water concentrations (e.g., arc magmas containing ∼4 wt% water). We note that several processes that have been inferred to occur in volcanic conduits such as magma stalling, magma mingling, open- and closed-system degassing, vapor fluxing, and vapor accumulation (in foam layers or as slugs of gas) are associated with different implied vapor volume fractions during syneruptive ascent. Given the sensitivity of magma P-T-t paths to vapor volume fraction, the syneruptive thermometer presented here may be a means of identifying these processes during the seconds to hours preceding the eruption of mafic magmas

Special Values of Generalized Polylogarithms

We study values of generalized polylogarithms at various points and relationships among them. Polylogarithms of small weight at the points 1/2 and -1 are completely investigated. We formulate a conjecture about the structure of the linear space generated by values of generalized polylogarithms.Comment: 32 page

Population-Wide Emergence of Antiviral Resistance during Pandemic Influenza

Background: The emergence of neuraminidase inhibitor resistance has raised concerns about the prudent use of antiviral drugs in response to the next influenza pandemic. While resistant strains may initially emerge with compromised viral fitness, mutations that largely compensate for this impaired fitness can arise. Understanding the extent to which these mutations affect the spread of disease in the population can have important implications for developing pandemic plans. Methodology/Principal Findings: By employing a deterministic mathematical model, we investigate possible scenarios for the emergence of population-wide resistance in the presence of antiviral drugs. The results show that if the treatment level (the fraction of clinical infections which receives treatment) is maintained constant during the course of the outbreak, there is an optimal level that minimizes the final size of the pandemic. However, aggressive treatment above the optimal level can substantially promote the spread of highly transmissible resistant mutants and increase the total number of infections. We demonstrate that resistant outbreaks can occur more readily when the spread of disease is further delayed by applying other curtailing measures, even if treatment levels are kept modest. However, by changing treatment levels over the course of the pandemic, it is possible to reduce the final size of the pandemic below the minimum achieved at the optimal constant level. This reduction can occur with low treatment levels during the early stages of the pandemic, followed by a sharp increase in drug-use before the virus becomes widely spread. Conclusions/Significance: Our findings suggest that an adaptive antiviral strategy with conservative initial treatment levels, followed by a timely increase in the scale of drug-use, can minimize the final size of a pandemic while preventing large outbreaks of resistant infections

Translation and Community in the work of Elizabeth Cary

Explores the role of female community within Elizabeth Cary\u27s translations and her play, The Tragedy of Mariam

Phenolic compounds in young developing kiwifruit in relation to light exposure: Implications for fruit calcium accumulation

The interaction between light availability and the biosynthesis of phenolic compounds in fruit of kiwifruit (Actinidia deliciosa var. deliciosa, C.F. Liang et A. R. Ferguson) was investigated. Fruits were exposed either to natural light or were artificially shaded while growing on mature vines and were analysed weekly during the first 11 weeks of development. Phenols were identified and quantified by using High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC). Results showed that the predominant phenolic compounds were hydroxycinnamic acids (HCAs), flavonols and the flavan 3-ol epicatechin. Calcium (Ca2+), the main mineral nutrient involved in fruit quality was also determined. Light significantly increased the accumulation of both phenols and Ca2+ into the fruit. This work expands the list of known phenolics in kiwifruit and provides a possible explanation for the seasonal pattern of Ca2+ import into the fruit. Results on light–phenol interaction being apparently beneficial for fruit Ca2+ accumulation, suggest that accurate canopy management could enhance fruit quality

Field Application of a Subunit Vaccine against an Enteric Protozoan Disease

Background: Coccidiosis is a major global veterinary health problem in intensively reared chickens. It is caused by apicomplexan parasites of the genus Eimeria. Principal Findings: A subunit vaccine composed of purified antigens from the gametocytes of Eimeria maxima was used to stimulate the production and transfer of maternal antibodies between breeding hens and their hatchlings. The vaccine was injected into hens twice before they began laying eggs. Immunization had no adverse affects on egg laying or health of the hens and resulted in high antibody levels throughout the life of the hens. Progeny of immunized hens excreted significantly less oocysts of various species of Eimeria in their faeces than chicks from unvaccinated hens. Furthermore, the offspring of vaccinated hens developed stronger natural immunity to Eimeria, so that they were resistant to challenge infection even at 8 weeks of age, well after all maternal antibodies had left their circulation. Field trials were conducted in South Africa, Brazil and Thailand, involving at least 1 million progeny of vaccinated hens and at least 1 million positive control birds (raised on feed containing anticoccidial drugs or immunized with a live vaccine) in each country. Additionally, trials were carried out in Israel involving 60 million progeny of vaccinated hens and 112 million positive control birds. There were no significant differences in growth rate, feed conversion ratios or mortality in the offspring of vaccinated hens compared with the positive control chickens in any of these countries regardless of different management practices, different breeds of chickens or climate. Conclusions: These results demonstrate that a vaccine composed of antigens purified from the gametocytes of Eimeria can be used safely and effectively to prevent the deleterious effects of coccidiosis. It is the first subunit vaccine against any protozoan parasite to be successfully applied on a commercial scale. © 2008 Wallach et al

Osteochondral impaction of the posterior acetabular surface without cortical fracture of any wall or column: an undescribed pattern of acetabular injury

Surgical treatment of a unusual acetabular fracture is described. This fracture was characterized by impaction and breaking down of the posterior articular surface and comminution of lamina quadrilatera lower portion, without cortical fracture of both columns. The fracture was treated surgically through the Kocher–Langenbeck approach. A small hole was created in the acetabulum posterior wall, the impacted fragment was reduced, and the bone defect was filled with autologous bone from the greater trochanter. A plate was shaped in order to fix both bone graft and fractured fragment

Bayesian Best-Arm Identification for Selecting Influenza Mitigation Strategies

Pandemic influenza has the epidemic potential to kill millions of people. While various preventive measures exist (i.a., vaccination and school closures), deciding on strategies that lead to their most effective and efficient use remains challenging. To this end, individual-based epidemiological models are essential to assist decision makers in determining the best strategy to curb epidemic spread. However, individual-based models are computationally intensive and it is therefore pivotal to identify the optimal strategy using a minimal amount of model evaluations. Additionally, as epidemiological modeling experiments need to be planned, a computational budget needs to be specified a priori. Consequently, we present a new sampling technique to optimize the evaluation of preventive strategies using fixed budget best-arm identification algorithms. We use epidemiological modeling theory to derive knowledge about the reward distribution which we exploit using Bayesian best-arm identification algorithms (i.e., Top-two Thompson sampling and BayesGap). We evaluate these algorithms in a realistic experimental setting and demonstrate that it is possible to identify the optimal strategy using only a limited number of model evaluations, i.e., 2-to-3 times faster compared to the uniform sampling method, the predominant technique used for epidemiological decision making in the literature. Finally, we contribute and evaluate a statistic for Top-two Thompson sampling to inform the decision makers about the confidence of an arm recommendation

The Impact of the Unstructured Contacts Component in Influenza Pandemic Modeling

Individual based models have become a valuable tool for modeling the spatiotemporal dynamics of epidemics, e.g. influenza pandemic, and for evaluating the effectiveness of intervention strategies. While specific contacts among individuals into diverse environments (family, school/workplace) can be modeled in a standard way by employing available socio-demographic data, all the other (unstructured) contacts can be dealt with by adopting very different approaches. This can be achieved for instance by employing distance-based models or by choosing unstructured contacts in the local communities or by employing commuting data.Here we show how diverse choices can lead to different model outputs and thus to a different evaluation of the effectiveness of the containment/mitigation strategies. Sensitivity analysis has been conducted for different values of the first generation index G(0), which is the average number of secondary infections generated by the first infectious individual in a completely susceptible population and by varying the seeding municipality. Among the different considered models, attack rate ranges from 19.1% to 25.7% for G(0) = 1.1, from 47.8% to 50.7% for G(0) = 1.4 and from 62.4% to 67.8% for G(0) = 1.7. Differences of about 15 to 20 days in the peak day have been observed. As regards spatial diffusion, a difference of about 100 days to cover 200 km for different values of G(0) has been observed.To reduce uncertainty in the models it is thus important to employ data, which start being available, on contacts on neglected but important activities (leisure time, sport mall, restaurants, etc.) and time-use data for improving the characterization of the unstructured contacts. Moreover, all the possible effects of different assumptions should be considered for taking public health decisions: not only sensitivity analysis to various model parameters should be performed, but intervention options should be based on the analysis and comparison of different modeling choices