Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

Aminotransferase activity in morbid and uncomplicated obesity: Predictive role of fasting insulin

BACKGROUND. An elevation in liver enzymes and, most notably, high serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) activity, has been correlated with metabolic syndrome and obesity. However, whether obesity per se or obesity-related co-morbidities affect aminotransferase activity is still unclear. In this study we sought to evaluate serum aminotransferase activity in morbid and uncomplicated obese subjects METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, serum aminotransferase activity, anthropometric and metabolic parameters were assessed in 290 morbid and 105 uncomplicated consecutive obese subjects matched for body mass index (BMI) (40.1+/-6.8 vs. 39.9+/-8.3 kg/m(2), respectively), age (35.9+/-10 vs. 34.8+/-9.6 years, respectively), sex distribution and duration of obesity. RESULTS: Uncomplicated obese subjects showed significantly lower serum ALT activity (17.58+/-6.3 (range 10-39) vs. 23.43+/-16 (range 12-89) U/l, (p<0.001)), and lower aspartate aminotransferase (AST), AST/ALT ratios and gamma-glutamyltranspeptidase (gammaGT) (p<0.01 for all) than morbid obese subjects. Only 11% women and 19% men in the uncomplicated obese group showed high ALT levels, while ALT activity was high in 48% women and 51% men in the morbid obese group. Fasting insulin was the best correlate of ALT activity (R(2)=0.21, p=0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that elevated ALT and AST activity are associated with increased fasting insulin and not with obesity per se, suggesting that the presence of insulin resistance, rather than BMI alone, plays a role in mediating the increased aminotransferase activity