New abundance measurements in UKS 1927-177, a very metal-poor galaxy in the Local Group

We present new results from optical spectroscopy of the brightest Hii region in the dwarf irregular galaxy UKS 1927-177 in Sagittarius (SagDIG). From high signal-to-noise spectra, reddening-corrected line flux ratios have been measured with typical uncertainties of a few percent, from which the oxygen abundance is rediscussed, and new abundance estimates are derived for N and Ne. The O abundance in SagDIG, estimated with the empirical abundance indicator R23 and other methods, is in the range 12+log(O/H)=7.26 to 7.50. The fact that SagDIG is ~10 times closer than IZw18 makes it an ideal target to test the hypothesis of the existence of young galaxies in the present-day universe. Indeed, stellar photometry suggests that this galaxy may harbor a stellar population older than a few Gyr, and possibly an old stellar component as well. The case of SagDIG therefore supports the view that very low chemical abundances can be maintained throughout the life of a dwarf stellar system, even in the presence of multiple star formation episodes.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in A&A, main journa

A multiplicative hazard regression model to assess the risk of disease transmission at hospital during community epidemics

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>During community epidemics, infections may be imported within hospital and transmitted to hospitalized patients. Hospital outbreaks of communicable diseases have been increasingly reported during the last decades and have had significant consequences in terms of patient morbidity, mortality, and associated costs. Quantitative studies are thus needed to estimate the risks of communicable diseases among hospital patients, taking into account the epidemiological process outside, hospital and host-related risk factors of infection and the role of other patients and healthcare workers as sources of infection.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We propose a multiplicative hazard regression model to analyze the risk of acquiring a communicable disease by patients at hospital. This model derives from epidemiological data on communicable disease epidemics in the community, hospital ward, patient susceptibility to infection, and exposure of patients to infection at hospital. The model estimates the relative effect of each of these factors on a patient's risk of communicable disease.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using individual data on patients and health care workers in a teaching hospital during the 2004-2005 influenza season in Lyon (France), we show the ability of the model to assess the risk of influenza-like illness among hospitalized patients. The significant effects on the risk of influenza-like illness were those of old age, exposure to infectious patients or health care workers, and a stay in a medical care unit.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The proposed multiplicative hazard regression model could be an interesting epidemiological tool to quantify the risk of communicable disease at hospital during community epidemics and the uncertainty inherent in such quantification. Furthermore, key epidemiological, environmental, host, or exposure factors that influence this risk can be identified.</p

Models of epidemics: when contact repetition and clustering should be included

Background The spread of infectious disease is determined by biological factors, e.g. the duration of the infectious period, and social factors, e.g. the arrangement of potentially contagious contacts. Repetitiveness and clustering of contacts are known to be relevant factors influencing the transmission of droplet or contact transmitted diseases. However, we do not yet completely know under what conditions repetitiveness and clustering should be included for realistically modelling disease spread. Methods We compare two different types of individual-based models: One assumes random mixing without repetition of contacts, whereas the other assumes that the same contacts repeat day-by-day. The latter exists in two variants, with and without clustering. We systematically test and compare how the total size of an outbreak differs between these model types depending on the key parameters transmission probability, number of contacts per day, duration of the infectious period, different levels of clustering and varying proportions of repetitive contacts. Results The simulation runs under different parameter constellations provide the following results: The difference between both model types is highest for low numbers of contacts per day and low transmission probabilities. The number of contacts and the transmission probability have a higher influence on this difference than the duration of the infectious period. Even when only minor parts of the daily contacts are repetitive and clustered can there be relevant differences compared to a purely random mixing model. Conclusion We show that random mixing models provide acceptable estimates of the total outbreak size if the number of contacts per day is high or if the per-contact transmission probability is high, as seen in typical childhood diseases such as measles. In the case of very short infectious periods, for instance, as in Norovirus, models assuming repeating contacts will also behave similarly as random mixing models. If the number of daily contacts or the transmission probability is low, as assumed for MRSA or Ebola, particular consideration should be given to the actual structure of potentially contagious contacts when designing the model.ISSN:1742-468

Estimating the costs of school closure for mitigating an influenza pandemic

BACKGROUND: School closure is a key component of many countries' plans to mitigate the effect of an influenza pandemic. Although a number of studies have suggested that such a policy might reduce the incidence, there are no published studies of the cost of such policies. This study attempts to fill this knowledge gap METHODS: School closure is expected to lead to significant work absenteeism of working parents who are likely to be the main care givers to their dependent children at home. The cost of absenteeism due to school closure is calculated as the paid productivity loss of parental absenteeism during the period of school closure. The cost is estimated from societal perspective using a nationally representative survey. RESULTS: The results show that overall about 16% of the workforce is likely to be the main caregiver for dependent children and therefore likely to take absenteeism. This rises to 30% in the health and social care sector, as a large proportion of the workforce are women. The estimated costs of school closure are significant, at 0.2 pounds bn - 1.2 pounds bn per week. School closure is likely to significantly exacerbate the pressures on the health system through staff absenteeism. CONCLUSION: The estimates of school closure associated absenteeism and the projected cost would be useful for pandemic planning for business continuity, and for cost effectiveness evaluation of different pandemic influenza mitigation strategies

Cost effectiveness of pediatric pneumococcal conjugate vaccines: a comparative assessment of decision-making tools

BACKGROUND: Several decision support tools have been developed to aid policymaking regarding the adoption of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) into national pediatric immunization programs. The lack of critical appraisal of these tools makes it difficult for decision makers to understand and choose between them. With the aim to guide policymakers on their optimal use, we compared publicly available decision-making tools in relation to their methods, influential parameters and results. METHODS: The World Health Organization (WHO) requested access to several publicly available cost-effectiveness (CE) tools for PCV from both public and private provenance. All tools were critically assessed according to the WHO's guide for economic evaluations of immunization programs. Key attributes and characteristics were compared and a series of sensitivity analyses was performed to determine the main drivers of the results. The results were compared based on a standardized set of input parameters and assumptions. RESULTS: Three cost-effectiveness modeling tools were provided, including two cohort-based (Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO) ProVac Initiative TriVac, and PneumoADIP) and one population-based model (GlaxoSmithKline's SUPREMES). They all compared the introduction of PCV into national pediatric immunization program with no PCV use. The models were different in terms of model attributes, structure, and data requirement, but captured a similar range of diseases. Herd effects were estimated using different approaches in each model. The main driving parameters were vaccine efficacy against pneumococcal pneumonia, vaccine price, vaccine coverage, serotype coverage and disease burden. With a standardized set of input parameters developed for cohort modeling, TriVac and PneumoADIP produced similar incremental costs and health outcomes, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccine cost (dose price and number of doses), vaccine efficacy and epidemiology of critical endpoint (for example, incidence of pneumonia, distribution of serotypes causing pneumonia) were influential parameters in the models we compared. Understanding the differences and similarities of such CE tools through regular comparisons could render decision-making processes in different countries more efficient, as well as providing guiding information for further clinical and epidemiological research. A tool comparison exercise using standardized data sets can help model developers to be more transparent about their model structure and assumptions and provide analysts and decision makers with a more in-depth view behind the disease dynamics. Adherence to the WHO guide of economic evaluations of immunization programs may also facilitate this process. Please see related article: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7007/9/55

The value of including boys in an HPV vaccination programme: a cost-effectiveness analysis in a low-resource setting

We assessed the cost-effectiveness of including boys vs girls alone in a pre-adolescent vaccination programme against human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18 in Brazil. Using demographic, epidemiological, and cancer data from Brazil, we developed a dynamic transmission model of HPV infection between males and females. Model-projected reductions in HPV incidence under different vaccination scenarios were applied to a stochastic model of cervical carcinogenesis to project lifetime costs and benefits. We assumed vaccination prevented HPV-16 and -18 infections in individuals not previously infected, and protection was lifelong. Coverage was varied from 0-90% in both genders, and cost per-vaccinated individual was varied from I$25 to 400. At 90$50, vaccinating girls alone was <$200 per year of life saved (YLS), while including boys ranged from$810–18 650 per YLS depending on coverage. For all coverage levels, increasing coverage in girls was more effective and less costly than including boys in the vaccination programme. In a resource-constrained setting such as Brazil, our results support that the first priority in reducing cervical cancer mortality should be to vaccinate pre-adolescent girls

A Review of Chemosensation and Related Behavior in Aquatic Insects

Insects that are secondarily adapted to aquatic environments are able to sense odors from a diverse array of sources. The antenna of these insects, as in all insects, is the main chemosensory structure and its input to the brain allows for integration of sensory information that ultimately ends in behavioral responses. Only a fraction of the aquatic insect orders have been studied with respect to their sensory biology and most of the work has centered either on the description of the different types of sensilla, or on the behavior of the insect as a whole. In this paper, the literature is exhaustively reviewed and ways in which antennal morphology, brain structure, and associated behavior can advance better understanding of the neurobiology involved in processing of chemosensory information are discussed. Moreover, the importance of studying such group of insects is stated, and at the same time it is shown that many interesting questions regarding olfactory processing can be addressed by looking into the changes that aquatic insects undergo when leaving their aquatic environment

Acclimatization of the crustose coralline alga Porolithon onkodes to variable pCO2

Ocean acidification (OA) has important implications for the persistence of coral reef ecosystems, due to potentially negative effects on biomineralization. Many coral reefs are dynamic with respect to carbonate chemistry, and experience fluctuations in pCO2 that exceed OA projections for the near future. To understand the influence of dynamic pCO2 on an important reef calcifier, we tested the response of the crustose coralline alga Porolithon onkodes to oscillating pCO2. Individuals were exposed to ambient (400 ??atm), high (660 ??atm), or variable pCO2 (oscillating between 400/660 ??atm) treatments for 14 days. To explore the potential for coralline acclimatization, we collected individuals from low and high pCO2 variability sites (upstream and downstream respectively) on a back reef characterized by unidirectional water flow in Moorea, French Polynesia. We quantified the effects of treatment on algal calcification by measuring the change in buoyant weight, and on algal metabolism by conducting sealed incubations to measure rates of photosynthesis and respiration. Net photosynthesis was higher in the ambient treatment than the variable treatment, regardless of habitat origin, and there was no effect on respiration or gross photosynthesis. Exposure to high pCO2 decreased P. onkodes calcification by >70%, regardless of the original habitat. In the variable treatment, corallines from the high variability habitat calcified 42% more than corallines from the low variability habitat. The significance of the original habitat for the coralline calcification response to variable, high pCO2 indicates that individuals existing in dynamic pCO2 habitats may be acclimatized to OA within the scope of in situ variability. These results highlight the importance of accounting for natural pCO2 variability in OA manipulations, and provide insight into the potential for plasticity in habitat and species-specific responses to changing ocean chemistry.Funding was provided by grants from the National Science Foundation (OCE-0417412, OCE-10-26852, OCE-1041270) and gifts from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. The funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Spatial Patterns of Parrotfish Corallivory in the Caribbean: The Importance of Coral Taxa, Density and Size

The past few decades have seen an increase in the frequency and intensity of disturbance on coral reefs, resulting in shifts in size and composition of coral populations. These changes have lead to a renewed focus on processes that influence demographic rates in corals, such as corallivory. While previous research indicates selective corallivory among coral taxa, the importance of coral size and the density of coral colonies in influencing corallivory are unknown. We surveyed the size, taxonomy and number of bites by parrotfish per colony of corals and the abundance of three main corallivorous parrotfish (Sparisoma viride, Sparisoma aurofrenatum, Scarus vetula) at multiple spatial scales (reefs within islands: 1–100 km, and between islands: >100 km) within the Bahamas Archipelago. We used a linear mixed model to determine the influence of coral taxa, colony size, colony density, and parrotfish abundance on the intensity of corallivory (bites per m2 of coral tissue). While the effect of colony density was significant in determining the intensity of corallivory, we found no significant influence of colony size or parrotfish abundance (density, biomass or community structure). Parrotfish bites were most frequently observed on the dominant species of reef building corals (Montastraea annularis, Montastraea faveolata and Porites astreoides), yet our results indicate that when the confounding effects of colony density and size were removed, selective corallivory existed only for the less dominant Porites porites. As changes in disturbance regimes result in the decline of dominant frame-work building corals such as Montastraea spp., the projected success of P. porites on Caribbean reefs through high reproductive output, resistance to disease and rapid growth rates may be attenuated through selective corallivory by parrotfish