Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

This study investigated the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia. A soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was calibrated and validated against observed streamflow using SWAT CUP. The Mann–Kendall trend test (MK) was used to assess climate trends. Meteorological drought (SPEI) and hydrological drought (SDI) were also investigated. Based on the ensemble mean of five global climate models (GCMs), projected increases in mean annual maximum temperature over the period 2015–2100 (compared with a 1983–2014 baseline) range from 1.16 to 1.73 °C, while increases in minimum temperature range between 0.79 and 2.53 °C. Increases in mean annual precipitation range from 1.8% at Addis Ababa to 45.5% over the Hombole area. High streamflow (Q5) declines at all stations except Ginchi. Low flows (Q90) also decline with Q90 equaling 0 m3 s−1 (i.e., 100% reduction) at some gauging stations (Akaki and Hombole) for individual GCMs. The SPEI confirmed a significant drought trend in the past, while the frequency and severity of drought will increase in the future. The basin experienced conditions that varied from modest dry periods to a very severe hydrological drought between 1986 and 2005. The projected SDI ranges from modestly dry to modestly wet conditions. Climate change in the basin would enhance seasonal variations in hydrological conditions. Both precipitation and streamflow will decline in the wet seasons and increase in the dry seasons. These changes are likely to have an impact on agricultural activities and other human demands for water resources throughout the basin and will require the implementation of appropriate mitigation measures

The use of standardized patients for mock oral board exams in neurology: a pilot study

BACKGROUND: Mock oral board exams, fashioned after the live patient hour of the American Board of Psychiatry and Neurology exam, are commonly part of resident assessment during residency training. Exams using real patients selected from clinics or hospitals are not standardized and do not allow comparisons of resident performance across the residency program. We sought to create a standardized patient mock oral board exam that would allow comparison of residents' clinical performance. METHODS: Three cases were created and then used for this mock oral boards exercise utilizing trained standardized patients. Residents from the University of Cincinnati and Indiana University participated in the exam. Residents were scored by attending physician examiners who directly observed the encounter with the standardized patient. The standardized patient also assessed each resident. A post-test survey was administered to ascertain participant's satisfaction with the examination process. RESULTS: Resident scores were grouped within one standard deviation of the mean, with the exception of one resident who was also subjectively felt to "fail" the exam. In exams with two faculty "evaluators", scores were highly correlated. The survey showed satisfaction with the examination process in general. CONCLUSION: Standardized patients can be used for mock oral boards in the live patient format. Our initial experience with this examination process was positive. Further testing is needed to determine if this examination format is more reliable and valid than traditional methods of assessing resident competency

A preliminary randomized double blind placebo-controlled trial of intravenous immunoglobulin for Japanese encephalitis in Nepal

BACKGROUND: Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus (JEV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus found across Asia that is closely related to West Nile virus. There is no known antiviral treatment for any flavivirus. Results from in vitro studies and animal models suggest intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) containing virus-specific neutralizing antibody may be effective in improving outcome in viral encephalitis. IVIG's anti-inflammatory properties may also be beneficial. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We performed a pilot feasibility randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial of IVIG containing anti-JEV neutralizing antibody (ImmunoRel, 400mg/kg/day for 5 days) in children with suspected JE at two sites in Nepal; we also examined the effect on serum neutralizing antibody titre and cytokine profiles. 22 children were recruited, 13 of whom had confirmed JE; 11 received IVIG and 11 placebo, with no protocol violations. One child (IVIG group) died during treatment and two (placebo) subsequently following hospital discharge. Overall, there was no difference in outcome between treatment groups at discharge or follow up. Passive transfer of anti-JEV antibody was seen in JEV negative children. JEV positive children treated with IVIG had JEV-specific neutralizing antibody titres approximately 16 times higher than those treated with placebo (p=0.2), which was more than could be explained by passive transfer alone. IL-4 and IL-6 were higher in the IVIG group. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: A trial of IVIG for JE in Nepal is feasible. IVIG may augment the development of neutralizing antibodies in JEV positive patients. IVIG appears an appealing option for JE treatment that warrants further study. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01856205

New uses of the Migraine Screen Questionnaire (MS-Q): validation in the Primary Care setting and ability to detect hidden migraine. MS-Q in Primary Care

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>PC plays an important role in early diagnosis of health disorders, particularly migraine, due to the financial impact of this disease for the society and its impact on patients' quality of life. The aim of the study was to validate the self-administered MS-Q questionnaire for detection of hidden migraine in the field of primary care (PC), and to explore its use in this setting.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cross-sectional, observational, and multicentre study in subjects above 18 years of age patients attending PC centers (regardless of the reason for consultation). A MS-Q score ≥ 4 was considered possible migraine. Level of agreement with IHS criteria clinical diagnosis (kappa coefficient), and instrument's validity properties: sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values were determined. The ability of the instrument to identify possible new cases of migraine was calculated, as well as the ratio of hidden disease compared to the ratio obtained by IHS criteria.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 9,670 patients were included [48.9 ± 17.2 years (mean ± SD); 61.9% women], from 410 PC centers representative of the whole national territory. The clinical prevalence of migraine according to the IHS criteria was 24.7%, and 20.4% according to MS-Q: Kappa index of agreement 0.82 (p < 0.05). MS-Q sensitivity was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.81 - 0.84), specificity 0.97 (95% CI, 0.98 - 0.99), PPV 0.95 (95% CI, 0.94 - 0.96), and NPV 0.94 (95% CI, 0.93 - 0.95). No statistically significant differences were found in the percentages of patients with <it>de novo </it>and hidden migraine identified by MS-Q and by IHS criteria: 5.7% vs. 6.1% and 26.6% vs. 24.1%, respectively.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The results of the present study confirm the usefulness of the MS-Q questionnaire for the early detection and assessment of migraine in PC settings, and its ability to detect hidden migraine.</p

The effect of statin therapy on heart failure events: a collaborative meta-analysis of unpublished data from major randomized trials

The effect of statins on risk of heart failure (HF) hospitalization and HF death remains uncertain. We aimed to establish whether statins reduce major HF events.We searched Medline, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials for randomized controlled endpoint statin trials from 1994 to 2014. Collaborating trialists provided unpublished data from adverse event reports. We included primary- and secondary-prevention statin trials with >1000 participants followed for >1 year. Outcomes consisted of first non-fatal HF hospitalization, HF death and a composite of first non-fatal HF hospitalization or HF death. HF events occurring <30 days after within-trial myocardial infarction (MI) were excluded. We calculated risk ratios (RR) with fixed-effects meta-analyses. In up to 17 trials with 132 538 participants conducted over 4.3 [weighted standard deviation (SD) 1.4] years, statin therapy reduced LDL-cholesterol by 0.97 mmol/L (weighted SD 0.38 mmol/L). Statins reduced the numbers of patients experiencing non-fatal HF hospitalization (1344/66 238 vs. 1498/66 330; RR 0.90, 95% confidence interval, CI 0.84-0.97) and the composite HF outcome (1234/57 734 vs. 1344/57 836; RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.85-0.99) but not HF death (213/57 734 vs. 220/57 836; RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.80-1.17). The effect of statins on first non-fatal HF hospitalization was similar whether this was preceded by MI (RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.68-1.11) or not (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.84-0.98).In primary- and secondary-prevention trials, statins modestly reduced the risks of non-fatal HF hospitalization and a composite of non-fatal HF hospitalization and HF death with no demonstrable difference in risk reduction between those who suffered an MI or not

The Caenorhabditis elegans Mucin-Like Protein OSM-8 Negatively Regulates Osmosensitive Physiology Via the Transmembrane Protein PTR-23

The molecular mechanisms of animal cell osmoregulation are poorly understood. Genetic studies of osmoregulation in yeast have identified mucin-like proteins as critical regulators of osmosensitive signaling and gene expression. Whether mucins play similar roles in higher organisms is not known. Here, we show that mutations in the Caenorhabditis elegans mucin-like gene osm-8 specifically disrupt osmoregulatory physiological processes. In osm-8 mutants, normal physiological responses to hypertonic stress, such as the accumulation of organic osmolytes and activation of osmoresponsive gene expression, are constitutively activated. As a result, osm-8 mutants exhibit resistance to normally lethal levels of hypertonic stress and have an osmotic stress resistance (Osr) phenotype. To identify genes required for Osm-8 phenotypes, we performed a genome-wide RNAi osm-8 suppressor screen. After screening ∼18,000 gene knockdowns, we identified 27 suppressors that specifically affect the constitutive osmosensitive gene expression and Osr phenotypes of osm-8 mutants. We found that one suppressor, the transmembrane protein PTR-23, is co-expressed with osm-8 in the hypodermis and strongly suppresses several Osm-8 phenotypes, including the transcriptional activation of many osmosensitive mRNAs, constitutive glycerol accumulation, and osmotic stress resistance. Our studies are the first to show that an extracellular mucin-like protein plays an important role in animal osmoregulation in a manner that requires the activity of a novel transmembrane protein. Given that mucins and transmembrane proteins play similar roles in yeast osmoregulation, our findings suggest a possible evolutionarily conserved role for the mucin-plasma membrane interface in eukaryotic osmoregulation

The effect of statin therapy on heart failure events: a collaborative meta-analysis of unpublished data from major randomized trials

The effect of statins on risk of heart failure (HF) hospitalization and HF death remains uncertain. We aimed to establish whether statins reduce major HF events.We searched Medline, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials for randomized controlled endpoint statin trials from 1994 to 2014. Collaborating trialists provided unpublished data from adverse event reports. We included primary- and secondary-prevention statin trials with >1000 participants followed for >1 year. Outcomes consisted of first non-fatal HF hospitalization, HF death and a composite of first non-fatal HF hospitalization or HF death. HF events occurring <30 days after within-trial myocardial infarction (MI) were excluded. We calculated risk ratios (RR) with fixed-effects meta-analyses. In up to 17 trials with 132 538 participants conducted over 4.3 [weighted standard deviation (SD) 1.4] years, statin therapy reduced LDL-cholesterol by 0.97 mmol/L (weighted SD 0.38 mmol/L). Statins reduced the numbers of patients experiencing non-fatal HF hospitalization (1344/66 238 vs. 1498/66 330; RR 0.90, 95% confidence interval, CI 0.84-0.97) and the composite HF outcome (1234/57 734 vs. 1344/57 836; RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.85-0.99) but not HF death (213/57 734 vs. 220/57 836; RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.80-1.17). The effect of statins on first non-fatal HF hospitalization was similar whether this was preceded by MI (RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.68-1.11) or not (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.84-0.98).In primary- and secondary-prevention trials, statins modestly reduced the risks of non-fatal HF hospitalization and a composite of non-fatal HF hospitalization and HF death with no demonstrable difference in risk reduction between those who suffered an MI or not

A review of gene-drug interactions for nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use in preventing colorectal neoplasia.

Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) have been shown to be effective chemopreventive agents for colorectal neoplasia. Polymorphisms in NSAID targets or metabolizing enzymes may affect NSAID efficacy or toxicity. We conducted a literature review to summarize current evidence of gene-drug interactions between NSAID use and polymorphisms in COX1, COX2, ODC, UGT1A6 and CYP2C9 on risk of colorectal neoplasia by searching OVID and PubMed. Of 134 relevant search results, thirteen investigated an interaction. One study reported a significant interaction between NSAID use and the COX1 Pro17Leu polymorphism (P=0.03) whereby the risk reduction associated with NSAID use among homozygous wild-type genotypes was not observed among NSAID users with variant alleles. Recent pharmacodynamic data support the potential for gene-drug interactions for COX1 Pro17Leu. Statistically significant interactions have also been reported for ODC (315G>A), UGT1A6 (Thr181Ala+Arg184Ser or Arg184Ser alone), and CYP2C9 (*2/*3). No statistically significant interactions have been reported for polymorphisms in COX2; however, an interaction with COX2 -765G>C approached significance (P=0.07) in one study. Among seven remaining studies, reported interactions were not statistically significant for COX1, COX2 and ODC gene polymorphisms. Most studies were of limited sample size. Definitions of NSAID use differed substantially between studies. The literature on NSAID-gene interactions to date is limited. Reliable detection of gene-NSAID interactions will require greater sample sizes, consistent definitions of NSAID use and evaluation of clinical trial subjects of chemoprevention studies